When you throw all of this data together in the mix, Barack Obama's average lead over John McCain is 51.77 percent to 43.85 percent, a slightly wider margin than seen just in the four daily tracking polls above. Obama's median advantage across these surveys is a similar 52.00 percent to 44.00 percent, suggesting a fairly even distribution of results in the final round of polling. [Adding in the Ipsos poll into the mix marginally moves the average while keeping the median stable.]
Does this mean that Obama will win by 7 or 8 points tomorrow in the popular vote, or even that he is assured of winning tomorrow? No. But it has to be disheartening to the McCain campaign to still be unable to crack 45 percent a day before the election and see the polling unanimously show Obama at or above 50 percent across the nation. Throw on top of it the fact that, according to First Read, 111 straight reputable national surveys have shown Obama leading and you get the sense that it will be very difficult for McCain to capture the popular vote tomorrow.
We are 1 day out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?
Josh and I are up in Las Vegas through election day blogging about the campaign, and our coverage has graciously been sponsored by SEIU.
Josh and I are up in Las Vegas through election day blogging about the campaign, and our coverage has graciously been sponsored by SEIU, whose organizing on the ground in the state we'll be writing about a little later today.
The composite of these polls has looked remarkably stable over the last two and a half to three weeks since Gallup moved from reporting just numbers on registered voters to reporting numbers on likely voters. During this time period, Barack Obama's level of support has ranged from 49.50 percent to 51.25 percent, while John McCain's level of support has ranged from 43.00 percent to 44.50 percent. In other words, the race has been, and continues to be, stable, with Obama leading by about 6 points and McCain struggling to top 45 percent.
In other polling, CNN's final survey of likely voters finds Obama leading 53 percent to 46 percent, and CBS News polling gives Obama a 54 percent to 41 percent lead -- including an 57 percent to 38 percent edge among those already voting.
We are 2 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?
Barack Obama's lead over John McCain in Gallup's traditional turnout model is his largest since the survey has been published, and it matches his largest spread in the expanded turnout model as well. Yesterday's Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll also found Obama expanding on his lead, pushing it to 53 percent to 44 percent over McCain -- or largely in line with both the composite of the polling above, as well as the trend.
But what it all comes down to is this: McCain needs this race to tighten if he wants a shot at winning the presidency, but not only is there no evidence of tightening in the race -- he is still having difficulty crossing the 45 percent threshold in national polling -- there is in fact evidence that the race is one again diverging, with Obama's lead growing.
We are 3 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?
Last night's Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll had Barack Obama's lead holding firm at 52 percent to 44 percent over John McCain, and the Battleground tracker (.pdf) this morning had Obama's lead inching up to 49 percent to 45 percent. All in all, it certainly looks like whatever mini-bounce McCain was enjoying, inching up a point or so in recent days, may have subsided. At the least, McCain is still having real difficulty crossing that 45 percent Mendoza line.
Don't think that McCain is pondering the possibility of losing on Tuesday? Take a look at this:
We are 4 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?
The Washington Post/ABC News tracker (.pdf) from yesterday has Barack Obama up 52 percent to 44 percent over John McCain, and for the fifth straight day the Battleground tracker (.pdf) found Obama leading 49 percent to 43 percent. According to Ben Smith, a forthcoming New York Times/CBS News poll will show Obama up by an 11-point margin.
By the way, are undecideds the savior for the McCain campaign? Maybe not.
We are 5 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?
Update [2008-10-30 13:37:47 by Todd Beeton]:More bad news for McCain: last night's Zogby tracker showed Barack back above 50% and with almost a 7 point lead (50.2-43.3) suggesting that McCain may have peaked.
With less than a week to go, todays numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40s. Obama increased his lead among independents compared to yesterday, has moved into a lead among men, and still holds about one in five conservatives. But six days, including Election Day, is an eternity and McCain cannot be counted out yet, though he may need a wing and a prayer.
Hmm, no Drudge siren announcing that one? He is, however, touting the new Fox News poll, which shows McCain within 3, having closed the gap by 6 points in just a week.