by BigDog, Sat Jul 01, 2006 at 12:04:08 PM EDT
In response to a friends short message after a late night phone call about CA-50 and his email follow up:
so what you're saying is, the fifth paragraph of this story is total baloney.
The answer is YES. The facts follow.
They left out the TURNOUT figures and the ACTUAL figures. True Bullshit reporting. Of course she got half as many votes. There were well less than half the votes cast!
Here's the real stats:
Bilbray: 78,371 49.57%
Busby: 71,146 45.02%
Giffith: 6,027 3.81%
King 2519 1.59%
Her 'loss' was 4.55% or 7,220 votes. The Indy candidate and Libertarian carried 8,546 votes. Amazing BIG loss, huh? After the Republicans dumped in far more money than the Dems?
Registration stats as of 5.22.06 per Sec of State:
Democrats 105,504 29.69%
Republicans 156,437 44.02%
Indy's 78,012 21.95%
Financial Independent Expenditures:
For: $494, 025
Wow there's a stat that hasn't been mentioned anywhere yet it's in the Fed records and this is just up to 5/17/06 with three weeks to go. We'll see the financial number after 6.30.06 that has to be reported by 7.15.06
In 2004 (her first race at this seat) She got 47,600 votes with 19,014 Dem's that didn't vote in that race.
Cunningham got 81,854 with 10,775 not voting in this race.
SO....Busby in a 2006 Special election/primary...in a low turn out election...not a Presidential election...picked up 23,546 votes. The Republican winner lost 3,483 votes compared to the last candidate. A good showing for Busby, Yes?
A. The turnout was very light....always is in primary or special elections and yet she still got a 67% turnout of her Dem registration. And that gives her a tangible goal.
Bilbray got 50% of his registration to turnout! Pitiful.
B. It was a Congressional off year election not a Presidential election!
C. It's a hardcore conservative district even with the Democratic vote.
She did great. She came within 4.5% of winning the seat and still would have had to stand for election again in December while being required to be out of town much of the time.
This way she got the nomination, has 5 months to get 5%, increase her Party and Indy turnout. Forget the hardcore Republicans....they are going to vote Republican. 68% still support Bush. There are 30% in play. She'll get some cross-over.
Go back 4 cycles in the voting history would be more effective in turning out votes and concentrating on Absentee Ballot Requests for these lazy voters. But that's a matter of tactics.
But get off Busby's back. These are facts.
What many are reading is poor reporting that has been repeated all over the place. The first reporter was put into Lexis-Nexus and all the rest have been pulling their facts from it since. Bullshit reporting.
I've staffed elections like this. REALLY staffed. I know how they go and making her a dog or saying she's a poor performer in that District is out of line. Wish the reporters would do 40 minutes homework like this.
Busby turns out more Dems, gets some Indys and a few Republicans and she's got it. All a matter of tactics not theory.
I hope this puts some tangible facts on the table. The balance of the financial numbers will be available no later than 7.15.06.