CA-50: Sick of BS.. Actual Figures and Turnout

In response to a friends short message after a late night phone call about CA-50 and his email follow up:

so what you're saying is, the fifth paragraph of this story is total baloney.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060717/be rman

The answer is YES. The facts follow.

They left out the TURNOUT figures and the ACTUAL figures. True Bullshit reporting. Of course she got half as many votes. There were well less than half the votes cast!

Here's the real stats:

Bilbray: 78,371 49.57%
Busby:  71,146 45.02%
Giffith:   6,027  3.81%
King       2519  1.59%

Her 'loss' was 4.55% or 7,220 votes. The Indy candidate and Libertarian carried 8,546 votes. Amazing BIG loss, huh? After the Republicans dumped in far more money than the Dems?  

Registration stats as of 5.22.06 per Sec of State:
Democrats  105,504  29.69%
Republicans 156,437  44.02%
Indy's       78,012  21.95%

Financial Independent Expenditures:
Busby:
For: $368,791
Against: $3,952,936

Bilbray:
For: $494, 025
Against: 0

Wow there's a stat that hasn't been mentioned anywhere yet it's in the Fed records and this is just up to 5/17/06 with three weeks to go. We'll see the financial number after 6.30.06 that has to be reported by 7.15.06

In 2004 (her first race at this seat) She got 47,600 votes with 19,014 Dem's that didn't vote in that race.

Cunningham got 81,854 with 10,775 not voting in this race.

SO....Busby in a 2006 Special election/primary...in a low turn out election...not a Presidential election...picked up 23,546 votes. The Republican winner lost 3,483 votes compared to the last candidate. A good showing for Busby, Yes?

A. The turnout was very light....always is in primary or special elections and yet she still got a 67% turnout of her Dem registration. And that gives her a tangible goal.

Bilbray got 50% of his registration to turnout! Pitiful.

B. It was a Congressional off year election not a Presidential election!

C. It's a hardcore conservative district even with the Democratic vote.

She did great. She came within 4.5% of winning the seat and still would have had to stand for election again in December while being required to be out of town much of the time.

This way she got the nomination, has 5 months to get 5%, increase her Party and Indy turnout. Forget the hardcore Republicans....they are going to vote Republican. 68% still support Bush. There are 30% in play. She'll get some cross-over.

Go back 4 cycles in the voting history would be more effective in turning out votes and concentrating on Absentee Ballot Requests for these lazy voters. But that's a matter of tactics.

But get off Busby's back. These are facts.

What many are reading is poor reporting that has been repeated all over the place. The first reporter was put into Lexis-Nexus and all the rest have been pulling their facts from it since. Bullshit reporting.

I've staffed elections like this. REALLY staffed. I know how they go and making her a dog or saying she's a poor performer in that District is out of line. Wish the reporters would do 40 minutes homework like this.

Busby turns out more Dems, gets some Indys and a few Republicans and she's got it. All a matter of tactics not theory.

I hope this puts some tangible facts on the table. The balance of the financial numbers will be available no later than 7.15.06.

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My Take on CA 50 and the November Elections!

Last night in the District once held by disgraced Republican Culture of Corruption Congressman Randy Duke Cunningham the electorate in this lopsided Republican District sent a decisive message to Republicans Nationwide!  Democrat Francine Busby who only garnered 37% of the 2004 vote against Cunningham buried all of her 18 opponents with 44% of the vote. Former Republican Congressman Bilbrey will be her runoff opponent with only 15% support of district voters! The turnout of some 130,000 voters for a special election in this district where no Democrat ever got out of the thirty percent numbers added to a growing shift in heavily Republican districts against their party's leadership over the past five years!  It is widely expected that the June runoff with an even greater Democratic and Independent turnout should easily propel Busby over 50%.  The fact that the Republicans have to even swett this district let alone pump nearly half a million dollars from the RCCC is a harbanger of bad news ahead nationwide for all Republican candidates.  A sea shift election rivaling 1994 is about to take place!

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CA-50: Two New Polls Have Busby Up

As DownWithTyranny posted in a diary here earlier, the latest poll from Lake Research Partners finds Democrat Francine Busby leading in the polls for the April 11 special election to replace the Republican convicted felon Duke Cunningham. This is great news, but it gets even better. Another new poll from Datamar Inc., cited by Daily Kos diarist The Maven also has Busby up by a similar margin.

In the Lake Research Partners poll, Busby currently has the support of 39% of the district, with Republicans Brian Bilbray and Howard Kaloogian trailing at 15% and 7% respectively. The Datamar results are just as good, if slightly different. In that poll, Busby leads with 36.2% support and Bilbray and Kaloogian pulling 11.7% and 10.7%. Even though the district leans right -- 54.1% of respondents in the Datamar poll identified as Republicans, with 32.9% calling themselves Democrats -- this is a clear lead for the Reform Democrat Busby.

While these numbers are great, no one should relax just yet. Since this is an open, special election, if no candidate wins a majority of votes, there will be a runoff in June. Neither of these polls has Busby breaking 40%, so it's quite likely that we will not have peeled off our first Republican House seat of 2006 by the time we go to bed on April 11. If that is indeed the case, the Republicans have until June to retake the lead.

DavidNYC has already pointed out that, even among the lower-tier Republican candidates, there has already been at least one instance of underhanded politicking. Republican candidate Eric Roach sent out a fake "personal note" from his wife Meg, addressed "Dear Neighbor," asking CA-50 voters to support her husband. The Republican couldn't be bothered with such an annoyance as indicating that the mailer was paid for and authorized by the Roach campaign. And in case you're wondering, that is, in fact, illegal. This will be peanuts compared to what the Republicans will throw at Busby in the lead-up to the runoff.

Point being, we need to do everything we can to support Francine Busby. For some, that will mean continuing to donate. For others, if you happen to be close enough, volunteer for the campaign. We have 15 days to make something happen. Let's see what we can get accomplished.

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CA-50 New Poll

A new poll that gives a very comprehensive look at the congressional race in the CA-50 was made public today. The poll conducted by Competitive Edge provides extensive insight into both potential voter preferences and the key issues from the voter's perspective.

If the poll is an accurate predictor, Democratic candidate Francine Busby will garner the most votes in the April 11 Special Election, but she will fall short of the 50%+1 requirement for election and will be forced into a run-off with Republican former congressman, Brian Bilbray.

On April 11th, there will be a special election in the 50th Congressional District. If that election were held today and you had to vote, would you be voting for . .

Francine Busby, Democrat, Trustee, Cardiff School Board 33.5%
Brian Bilbray, Republican, Immigration Reform Consultant 14.8%
Eric Roach, Republican, Businessman 7.9%
Howard Kaloogian, Republican, Charitable Trust Attorney 7.1%
Bill Morrow, Republican, California State Senator 4.7%
Alan Uke, Republican, Business Owner 3.6%
Bill Hauf, Republican, Businessman 1.5%
Chris Young, Democrat, Retired Bank Executive 1.2%
Richard Earnest, Republican, Business Entrepreneur 1.0%
Another Candidate 1.1%
Unsure (Not read) 23.4%

There's more...

CA-50: Francine Busby's Inspiring Speech in LA 2.4.06 (Audio)

bumped from the diaries... for more, check out this post from MyDD reader Words Have Power -- jonathan

Francine Busby is inspiring candidates across the nation to believe the impossible can happen. When you hear this speech you will know why. But also notice how she paid her dues before deciding to run for Congress. She served locally. She ran for other offices and won.

And she knows the value of fundraising! She spends hours everyday on the phone raising money so she can win the race. How do I know this? She told me so. Most of our new candidates have a hard time doing the same things that Francine Busby takes for granted.  And remember....she is her second run for the same seat...she doesn't give up!
She's the Model.....listen and learn....

And she still needs your donations. The closing weeks of this campaign will get increasingly expensive. Money is a key factor. Please give generously either at her site or the Netroots site.**The Flash Audio (no download) is at The Political Dogfight and is a short and vigorous speech! There is also an MP3 link for iPOD's.


[Before anyone asks...no I am not on staff as a Blogger for the Busby Campaign.]

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