Can John McCain Win with Only the South?

On Tuesday, I asked if John McCain's apparent gains in national polling were coming from the South, a region that is more or less off the table in the race for 270 electoral votes this fall. Indeed, both NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling and the latest Gallup numbers both showed McCain making up much of the ground in the South, with Gallup finding that the only -- only -- region in which McCain led Barack Obama was the South. Now new Research 2000 polling shows very similar results. Take a look:


These numbers are more problematic for McCain than you might think given the overall closeness of the national campaign. Back in 2004, George W. Bush not only carried the South by a 58 percent to 42 percent margin, he also beat John Kerry in the Midwest 51 percent to 48 percent and nearly won the West, losing just 50 percent to 49 percent. McCain carries just one region to Bush's two, and is less competitive in the West to boot. In fact, McCain's numbers look a lot more like those of the Republicans in 2006 when the party lost overwhelmingly in the race for the House. Then the party only carried the South, 53 percent to 45 percent (compared to McCain's 54 percent to 38 percent lead), pulling in 35 percent in the Northeast (compared to McCain's 37 percent today), 47 percent in the Midwest (to McCain's 43 percent today), and 43 percent in the West (to McCain's 44 percent).

So the question becomes, can McCain win the White House only carrying the South? He might be able to pull of a popular vote win doing so, though it would be a stretch, but in the electoral college winning only the South and losing the other three regions of the country would make McCain's path to 270 electoral votes challenging, to say the least. So just how does he expect to swing it?

Manufacturing Monday: The Prius to be made in America, VW expands too!


Call it a positive effect on the falling US Dollar.  Along with an increase activity by domestic manufacturers, foreign companies are now expanding their operations here in the US.  Now, yes I understand that ultimately the money goes back overseas, but they are hiring folks who needed jobs.  To me, that last part is what counts.

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08 Campaign: Black Man V White Woman, Can Obama Really Fight Back?

With black support shifting toward Obama and black voters in Georgia joining voting rolls at three times the pace of whites is Obama now facing white resistance In South?

The Huffington Post reports, Donna Brazile, who ran the 2000 Gore campaign, said "my sense is that it [white southern support for Obama] is independents, college students, high income, highly educated and urban whites who often back strong Black reform candidates. More HERE

Now we learn Hillary Clinton has narrowly won the Democratic Nevada Caucus. 08/01/are-southern-whites-resisting-obam a-is.html

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Hillary Has Balls and Coattails

TarHeel wrote a diary that I could refer to as nothing less than putrid about Hillary's "drag" potential on down ballot races.  I will tell you what a drag is:  A wannabe with limited experience as anything other than a lawyer who fails to get out from under his wife's shadow and is better known for his haircut than his policy.

But wait, I forgot.  He is a Southern white protestant male landowner so it should be fine.  Silly me.  I am so sick of the Hillary can't make it thing.  Or the Hillary is so polarizing thing.  Or the baggage thing.  Here is a polling thing: ryId=938  According to Chris, Hillary not only wins right now, she realigns the map.  Carries Texas against Romney, and probably would even against Giuliani.  Now who do you think is really more worried?  Tim Johnson if we nominate Hillary or John Cornyn if they nominate Romney?

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Mudcat Saunders and Regional Stereotyping

WHITE ON WHITE REGIONAL STEREOTYPING. One of the big stereotyes of Democratic reformers is that they are "liberal elites" who look down their long effete noses at rural America. For consultant Dave "Mudcat" Saunders, bloggers are only the most prominent current example of those liberal elites, what he calls the "Metropolitan Opera Wing" of the Democratic Party. For Mudcat, it's liberal elites who have been losing elections for the Democrats in the South because of their "intolerance,""arrogance," pseudo-intellectual pretentions, and relentless stereotyping of rural Americans and the working class.

MY BACKGROUND. Because I've lived mostly in rural areas in both the North and the South but have spent time in Philly and developed contacts in other cities, I have a lot of experience with rural/urban boundaries. There is a sense in which Mudcat Saunders is right. Urban liberals I've known do stereotype rural and Southern people. Here's a couple of examples. When I attended a college program as a high school student from upstate New York, my peers from New York City used to ridicule my rural jockishness by humming the theme song to Captain America when I went by. More seriously, when my first wife started school at the University of Michigan, someone asked her how she could sleep at night when she came from a state as racist as North Carolina. This was particularly tough for her because she had dated a black guy in high school.

URBAN LIBERALS AND STEREOTYPING. It is important to emphasize, however, that urban stereotyping of rural people is very weak compared to the animosity that rural areas have for the major cities. Places like NY, Philly, and DC are self-contained worlds in which people generally have little awareness of the adjacent rural areas. People I know in Philadelphia have no more idea of Pennsylvania outside their suburbs than they have of Kansas, Idaho, or Kentucky. There is more stereotyping of the South in places like Ohio and Michigan where large numbers of Appalachian whites have settled, but still not that much. To the contrary, one of the first things that strikes Northerners who move South is the intense awareness Southerners have of the North, Yankees and the Civil War. Whereas Northerners give little thought to the South, hostility to "Yankees" is one of the guiding stars of my North Carolinian brother-in-law's life. Another is his racism. Likewise, my own brother had so many arguments about the Civil War thrown at him by his new Southern friends when he started college in North Carolina that he felt obligated to read Shelby Foote's three volume history of the Civil War. Southerners have a lot of regional pride and much of that regional pride is focused on hostility to the North.

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