NRCC, NRSC Target / Defense Lists

If what I have done this week hasn't already caused my fair share of winger heads to explode, this one will almost certainly allow me to meet my quota. I have acquired a leaked spreadsheet of the forty Republican-held seats the NRCC feels are most vulnerable, with detailed information on the way they are looking at each race. I also have an overview of eleven races the NRSC is looking at, and I combined it into one page. Here it all is:

NRCC defenses list, NRSC targets / defenses

I just got this, and I haven't had time to look it over closely, but offhand the story is this: even internal Republican figures show they are really struggling this year. It looks like right now, they expect to lose about four Senate seats and about 21 House seats. I had to remove to colors in order for this to post, but both pages were covered almost entirely in red (meaning a downward trend). I just don't have time for more commentary than that right now, but feel free to add your own.

New Senate Polls

Lots of new Senate polls from Mason-Dixon. Nothing earth-shattering. In fact, the polls project each race to be just about exactly where the conventional wisdom, and polling average, on that election currently resides. Political Wire has the breakdown:Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) leads Rick Santorum (R), 51% to 39%
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) leads Lincoln Chafee (R), 48% to 43%
Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) leads Jim Talent (R), 46% to 43%
New Jersey: Bob Menendez (D) leads Thomas Kean Jr (R), 45% to 42%
Washington: Maria Cantwell (D) leads Mike McGavick (R), 52% to 37%
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Mike DeWine (R), 48% to 40%
Montana: Jon Tester (D) leads Conrad Burns (R), 46% to 43%
Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) leads Harold Ford (D), 45% to 43%
Virginia: George Allen (R) leads James Webb (D), 47% to 43% Only two Republicans, George Allen and Bob Corker, pass 43%. I still like our chances to pick up 4-6 seats, not counting Connecticut. Visit for more numbers. It is about time that we built a superior website to Real Clear Politics, and is just that.

VoteVets on the Air Against Jim Talent

Remember VoteVets, the group that produced this powerful ad that has so far run in the Virginia, Pennsylvania and Montana Senate races?

Now they're up on the air with tan almost identical ad running against Jim Talent, Missouri's freshman Republican Senator. It's not a huge ad buy; as best I can tell it's only about $50,000 worth of television time. Yet the message is a powerful one, one that can resonate with voters of all political stripes. So if you want to help keep this ad on the air in Missouri, which may hold the key to the Democrats retaking the Senate this fall, click here to offer your support to VoteVets.

There's more...

Senate Forecast Update: Entering the Stretch Run

The latest update to the Senate forecast is posted. The projection remains unchanged, at 50-48-2 in favor of Republicans. I have made changes to the descriptions and numbers of every race, so I won't summarize them all here. The biggest changes from in Ohio, which I no longer have any problem projecting as "Lean Democratic," and New Jersey, which I have moved from "Toss-up" to "Lean Democratic." I have also moved Maryland from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic." Here are the latest five poll averages from competitive races, via
  • Minnesota: Klobuchar (D) 52.0%--39.6% Kennedy (R)
  • Ohio: Brown (D) 51.6%--41.2% DeWine (R)
  • Pennsylvania: Casey (D) 50.0%--39.6% Santorum (R)
  • Washington: Cantwell (D) 50.8%--41.8% McGavick (R)
  • Maryland: Cardin (D) 48.6%--40.2% Steele (R)
  • Montana: Tester (D) 49.4%--42.4% Burns (R)
  • New Jersey: Menendez (D) 46.0%--40.4% Kean (R) (Note: Includes Gallup instead of Strategic Vision poll, even though both were completed on the same day.)
  • Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) 45.6%--40.0% Chafee (R)
I wanted to separate the above eight polls from the five that follow just so people could get a better sense of how well we are doing in the above eight races. There can be no doubt that we are ahead and favored in all of them. Now, here are the next five:
  • Tennessee: Ford (D) 46.4%--44.1% Corker (R) (Note: Because three polls were released in a two-day span of 9/30-10/1, this is a seven poll average).
  • Missouri: McCaskill (D) 45.8%--43.8% Talent (R)
  • Virginia: Allen (R) 48.6%--43.6% Webb (D)
  • Arizona: Kyl (R) 48.4%--38.8% Pederson (D
  • Connecticut: Lieberman (CfL) 50.0%, Lamont (D) 39.4%, Schlesinger 4.4%
Right now, our chances to win between 4-6 seats look very good. And yes, that is a reality check.

Joe Lieberman for Senate!

With endorsements from Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Pat Robertson, Michelle Malkin, Newt Gingrich, Bill O'Reilly, and Tom Delay and statements like "being a senator I haven't gotten much beyond the middle class" (while being a multimillionaire with two homes), it's easy to see why Joe Lieberman is the Republican nominee for Senate in Connecticut.

A plethora of reasons to vote for Joe.

There's more...


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