Hillary: The Way to Win

Sen. Hillary Clinton has a better than even chance of winning the Democratic nomination, contrary to popular and uninformed opinion. The goal post has always been 2209 delegates needed to win, not the arbitrary 2025 number that doesn't include MI and FL. The primary process has always been about choosing the best candidate for the general election. That process has changed over the years. Over the past 4 decades, the Democratic party has had a 70% failure rate. Why is that?

Let's take a look at the history of presidential elections as they pertain to changes in the nominating rules, starting with 1968. LBJ's VP, Hubert H. Humphrey, was the heir-apparent, but he was challenged from the far left by Eugene McCarthy. Coming late to the race was RFK who was assassinated by a Palestinian on the night he won the CA primary. The Democratic National Convention was held in Chicago that year and to say it was tumultuous would be putting it mildly. Outside the convention center was what amounted to a police riot. IOW, all hell broke loose.

McCarthy tried in vain to gain the 1968 nomination but it ultimately went to Humphrey who didn't even run in the primaries except through surrogates. He lost to Nixon. Humphrey won 13 states plus DC, totaling 191 electoral votes (EVs). Nixon won 301 and George Wallace won 46. While that may have seemed like a crushing defeat at the time, the party hadn't seen anything yet.

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Help me see how this ends well either way.

A lot of discussion has been going on about how many women identify with Sen. Clinton's struggle to break the glass ceiling.  I am told that they feel righteous anger at seeing yet another highly qualified and powerful woman taking second place to a charming but underqualified man. I also read that many of them will not vote for Obama and at best stay home in November should Sen. Clinton not be the nominee.  Couple that with polling that says that poorer whites won't vote for Sen. Obama and clearly the Superdelegates must make Clinton the nominee to avoid disaster.

Sadly if these things are true then the disaster is upon us already.  

Why, because the only way she wins is if the rules are changed late in the game.  All of the Democratic candidates agreed that Michigan and Florida would not count.  The popular vote is not how the party directly chooses it's nominee.  

If Sen Obama wins the majority of the pleged delegates under the agreed-to rules of the game but is then denied the nomination, it is a fair bet to predict that the party loses it's African American support.  At best it stays home, at worst it goes Republican big enough to produce a landslide. The defection doesn't have to be all that large to produce the effect.

Why would they do this against their own interest?  Because many would see the rules of the game yet again being changed midgame to benefit a white person. Why would this have traction?  Because it is perceived to happen to them all the time. Their righteous fury will most likely be even more intense than that felt by women now.

I honestly dont see how this ends well either way.  

Obama can't win with just the black vote. Clinton can't win without it, but likely can't get nominated without alienating it.

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Terry McAuliffe in 2004: Michigan can't be allowed to break the rules and move their primary.

I learned today from Kos that in 2004 Terry McAuliffe threatened Michigan with not seating at least half their delegates if they moved their primary date without DNC consent.

What follows is taken directly from McAuliffe's own book describing a meeting with Michigan Senator Carl Levin regarding the matter.

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This Obama supporter agrees with Clinton side of the "Dean 25"

KUDOS to the Votemaster at for his analysis of Politico's investigation of the "Dean 25" that will rule on the MI/FL sanctions. Below is the quick rundown of the members, but I suggest reading the Politico article if you are a news junkie.


Name                                Job                                                                     Supports
Dean Aguillen                 Lobbyist                                                                  Clinton
Don Beyer                        Former VA Lt. Gov.                                                  Obama
Allyn Brooks-LaSure       Dir. Media relations for Save Darfur Coalition          Obama?
Jose Ceballos                  Dir. Gov't affairs, Air Traffic Controllers Assoc.            ?
Ralph Dawson                 Labor lawyer                                                          Obama?
Sheila Dixon                       Mayor of Baltimore                                                  Obama
"Christopher Edley, Jr       Dean of the law school at UC Berkeley                  Obama
Hartina Flournoy               Ass't to Pres. of Amer. Fed. of Teachers                 Clinton
Maryscott Greenwood     Managing dir. of law firm                                         Clinton?
Janice Griffin                    DNC activist                                                          Obama?
Adelita Grijalva                Program manager of Pima County Teen Court       Obama
Laura Harris                     Exec. Dir. Americans for Indian Opportunity          Obama
Kathy Hoyt                       Political activist                                                       Obama
Carol Juneau                   Montana state senator                                          Clinton
Scott Maddox                  Former Tallahassee mayor                                     Neutral
Abdul Mujahid                Founder of Sound Vision                                              ?
Maria Neira                     VP of Amer. Fed. of Teachers                                  Clinton
Kate O'Connor                Longtime Dean aide                                                      ?
Leila Sahar                       College student                                                              ?
Marc Stanley                       Texas lawyer                                                          Obama
Carol Pensky                   DNC activist                                                             Clinton
Bob Rogan                       Chief of Staff for Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT)               Obama?
Jane Stetson                     Rep. Peter Welch's finance chair                               Obama
Michael Steed                  Managing dir. Paladin Capital Group                       Clinton
Bill Strauss                       Massachusetts state representative                       Clinton

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On Michigan, Florida, and Super Delegates- An Unpopular Opinion.

If you haven't noticed all of the outrage lately over the Michigan/Florida debacle at this site, then you're probably brand new and have chosen to read this diary first.   Lucky you.

I'm going to present my take on this whole mess.  I do so from the perspective of an Obama supporter who tries to be open-minded and objective.  I do so knowing full well that there'll be a lot of accusations thrown at me.  Some new, some old.  The old ones are pretty well known- cultist, thug, brown shirt.  Don't throw that last one at me unless you are aching for a retarded flame war.

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