by Nobama, Sat May 10, 2008 at 07:53:07 PM EDT
Sen. Hillary Clinton has a better than even chance of winning the Democratic nomination, contrary to popular and uninformed opinion. The goal post has always been 2209 delegates needed to win, not the arbitrary 2025 number that doesn't include MI and FL. The primary process has always been about choosing the best candidate for the general election. That process has changed over the years. Over the past 4 decades, the Democratic party has had a 70% failure rate. Why is that?
Let's take a look at the history of presidential elections as they pertain to changes in the nominating rules, starting with 1968. LBJ's VP, Hubert H. Humphrey, was the heir-apparent, but he was challenged from the far left by Eugene McCarthy. Coming late to the race was RFK who was assassinated by a Palestinian on the night he won the CA primary. The Democratic National Convention was held in Chicago that year and to say it was tumultuous would be putting it mildly. Outside the convention center was what amounted to a police riot. IOW, all hell broke loose.
McCarthy tried in vain to gain the 1968 nomination but it ultimately went to Humphrey who didn't even run in the primaries except through surrogates. He lost to Nixon. Humphrey won 13 states plus DC, totaling 191 electoral votes (EVs). Nixon won 301 and George Wallace won 46. While that may have seemed like a crushing defeat at the time, the party hadn't seen anything yet.
by tired of dynasties, Fri May 09, 2008 at 12:17:26 AM EDT
A lot of discussion has been going on about how many women identify with Sen. Clinton's struggle to break the glass ceiling. I am told that they feel righteous anger at seeing yet another highly qualified and powerful woman taking second place to a charming but underqualified man. I also read that many of them will not vote for Obama and at best stay home in November should Sen. Clinton not be the nominee. Couple that with polling that says that poorer whites won't vote for Sen. Obama and clearly the Superdelegates must make Clinton the nominee to avoid disaster.
Sadly if these things are true then the disaster is upon us already.
Why, because the only way she wins is if the rules are changed late in the game. All of the Democratic candidates agreed that Michigan and Florida would not count. The popular vote is not how the party directly chooses it's nominee.
If Sen Obama wins the majority of the pleged delegates under the agreed-to rules of the game but is then denied the nomination, it is a fair bet to predict that the party loses it's African American support. At best it stays home, at worst it goes Republican big enough to produce a landslide. The defection doesn't have to be all that large to produce the effect.
Why would they do this against their own interest? Because many would see the rules of the game yet again being changed midgame to benefit a white person. Why would this have traction? Because it is perceived to happen to them all the time. Their righteous fury will most likely be even more intense than that felt by women now.
I honestly dont see how this ends well either way.
Obama can't win with just the black vote. Clinton can't win without it, but likely can't get nominated without alienating it.
by mattjfogarty, Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 12:24:33 AM EDT
I learned today from Kos that in 2004 Terry McAuliffe threatened Michigan with not seating at least half their delegates if they moved their primary date without DNC consent.
What follows is taken directly from McAuliffe's own book describing a meeting with Michigan Senator Carl Levin regarding the matter.
by FOB92, Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:05:40 AM EDT
KUDOS to the Votemaster at for his analysis of Politico's investigation of the "Dean 25" that will rule on the MI/FL sanctions. Below is the quick rundown of the members, but I suggest reading the Politico article if you are a news junkie.
THE DEAN 25
Name Job Supports
Dean Aguillen Lobbyist Clinton
Don Beyer Former VA Lt. Gov. Obama
Allyn Brooks-LaSure Dir. Media relations for Save Darfur Coalition Obama?
Jose Ceballos Dir. Gov't affairs, Air Traffic Controllers Assoc. ?
Ralph Dawson Labor lawyer Obama?
Sheila Dixon Mayor of Baltimore Obama
"Christopher Edley, Jr Dean of the law school at UC Berkeley Obama
Hartina Flournoy Ass't to Pres. of Amer. Fed. of Teachers Clinton
Maryscott Greenwood Managing dir. of law firm Clinton?
Janice Griffin DNC activist Obama?
Adelita Grijalva Program manager of Pima County Teen Court Obama
Laura Harris Exec. Dir. Americans for Indian Opportunity Obama
Kathy Hoyt Political activist Obama
Carol Juneau Montana state senator Clinton
Scott Maddox Former Tallahassee mayor Neutral
Abdul Mujahid Founder of Sound Vision ?
Maria Neira VP of Amer. Fed. of Teachers Clinton
Kate O'Connor Longtime Dean aide ?
Leila Sahar College student ?
Marc Stanley Texas lawyer Obama
Carol Pensky DNC activist Clinton
Bob Rogan Chief of Staff for Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) Obama?
Jane Stetson Rep. Peter Welch's finance chair Obama
Michael Steed Managing dir. Paladin Capital Group Clinton
Bill Strauss Massachusetts state representative Clinton
by Setrak, Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 04:19:38 PM EDT
If you haven't noticed all of the outrage lately over the Michigan/Florida debacle at this site, then you're probably brand new and have chosen to read this diary first. Lucky you.
I'm going to present my take on this whole mess. I do so from the perspective of an Obama supporter who tries to be open-minded and objective. I do so knowing full well that there'll be a lot of accusations thrown at me. Some new, some old. The old ones are pretty well known- cultist, thug, brown shirt. Don't throw that last one at me unless you are aching for a retarded flame war.