Rudy To Endorse McCain Tomorrow CONFIRMED

So says Mark Halperin:

SOURCES: Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday — in Los Angeles or Simi Valley.

But seriously, where else are Giuliani voters going to go?

If things continue the way they're going, McCain is poised for a win and it looks like Huckabee pulled conservatives from Romney in key areas. The problem for conservatives is that Giuliani is dropping out while Huckabee has no plans to do so.

When are conservatives going to take down McCain?

Update [2008-1-29 21:11:33 by Todd Beeton]:Giuliani campaign has confirmed that they are going to California tomorrow but won't confirm that he intends to endorse McCain.

Howard Fineman on MSNBC: "There are ongoing conversations between high levels of both campaigns, I have the sense more about how to do it than whether to do it."

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Rudy Giuliani Concession Speech Thread

If you're so inclined...

Update [2008-1-29 21:25:28 by Todd Beeton]:He's trying to get out with his dignity intact. I'd say it's a close call.

"Thanks to Ron Paul too, he won every debate!"

He's certainly showing more personality and passion in this speech than I've ever seen from him.

Haha. "We ran a campaign that was uplifting." Wha-? "...a return to honesty and substance in our political discussion." Huh?

Update [2008-1-29 21:26:4 by Jonathan Singer]: It's not quite a Nixonian flameout, but I keep thinking I'm going to hear the words, "You're not going to have Giuliani to kick around anymore..."

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2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast (01/27/08)

This podcast looks at (1) results of the South Carolina Democratic Primary; (2) a brief discussion about the media coverage of identity politics and (3) a look ahead to the Florida and February 5th primaries...

[Listen Online]

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week's podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we'll include it in the podcast).

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2008Central.net's Live Blog Of MSNBC Republican Debate In Florida (January 24, 2007)

[Re-published from 2008Central.net.  This liveblog on MyDD will be updated periodically.  For the latest please visit the active liveblog at 2008Central.net]

7:30: Time Russert and Brian Williams (henceforth, Bri-Wi) are moderating this debate, and participating are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul. I'm looking for Huckabee and Giuliani to be particularly aggressive, as a bad finish in Florida could really hurt them.

As an aside, today is the one year anniversary of 2008Central.net. So for those of you who have stuck around for all 1,053 posts now, I'm sure you realize how damned lucky you are to have us.  But enough about us, you're here to see two old white men question five other old white men about who should replace another old white man. How thrilling!

8:46: MSNBC says the debate is "DO OR DIE." in large all-cap font. Note this, because your children will want to know about the time that four presidential candidates were all killed on stage by a major news company. In other words, don't expect this debate to be a subtle discussion of minor differences.

8:59: Want to skip us as middlemen and watch it yourself but don't have cable? Screw you! Seriously, though, watch here. Brian Williams just told people not to cheer to give people at home misleading impressions. And now he's thanking military people in the audience.

9:01: Lyndon Johnson was at the university when it opened. Hillary Clinton just issued a press release that it takes a president to open a school.

9:02: Candidates are tired; apparently, they requested the debate only goes 90 minutes instead of 2 hours at their request. Tim Russert looks angry.

9:03: Romney is asked about the stimulus plan, and contrasts it with Bush's. Is he disappointed? Romney says it is effective, he just wishes it went further. Romney somehow says that a permanent tax cut is equivalent to a rebate or no taxes on capital gains. Talks about creating jobs and the mortgage crisis. He sounds like he's somewhat competent, but pandering at the same time.

9:05: McCain says he will vote for the plan, and is disappointed it does not make the Bush tax cuts permanent. McCain talks about people having uncertainty in their budget for 2010, and it sounds like a punch line. Segues into pork barrel talk. Talks up the rate cuts by Bernanke and the need for tax cuts. He's completely trying to erase any doubts of him on the tax issue.

9:07: Giuliani says the package is OK, but does not go far enough. Talks up his surrogates introducing legislation (Dreier and Bond). Says there is no difference between temporary and permanent. Says that if America over taxes, spends, sues, or regulates that America loses. Specifically excludes military spending. Said he is worried about London overtaking NYC as financial center.

[Continued at 2008Central.net]

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The More They Get To Know Him...

Throughout the summer it became clear that as people got to know Rudy Giuliani, the less they liked him. It was inevitable, after all, considering his sky-high favorability ratings were based on such a profoundly unsubstantiated myth. But those were national numbers. What about where he actually campaigned, on the ground, and allowed people to really get to know him, the real him?

Not much better I'm afraid.

As we all know, Rudy Giuliani is banking everything on Florida and has been campaigning there exclusively for weeks. As TPM tells us:

...he has flooded the state with money and resources -- including having 50 paid staffers in four state offices and spending more than $1 million on advertising since Christmas.

At this point, sources said, he is spending about $350,000 a day on TV ads, a pace that would leave him essentially broke after Florida's Jan. 29 primary.

So what kinds of dividends is it paying? Check out these sad Florida numbers, culled from Real Clear Politics:

Pre-Christmas 11-poll ave. (11/9-12/18)Post-Christmas 11-poll ave. (1/7-1/21)
29.220.3

A nine point drop since going on the air and essentially having Florida to himself. And check out his level of support from mid-to-late January; in 5 successive polls, he manages to go from 23 to 22 to 21 to 20 to 19. Saaaaad.

Of course, Rudy's presence in Florida isn't the only thing that's changed since Christmas; elsewhere in the country people have actually started voting and it's not gone unnoticed by Florida voters that Rudy hasn't won, hell, he hasn't even placed, in any early contest. Which points to what may turn out to be the fatal flaw of Rudy's all-in Florida strategy.

For the strategy to work, Giuliani's campaign was banking on two things happening. First, he needed the early state winners to be divided among several candidates. So far that has played out according to plan. On top of that, Rudy was also banking on those first few wins being momentum-proof, and again, that has been borne out to some degree since it's difficult to build momentum when a win is followed by a loss (a trend finally broken by Mitt Romney in Nevada.) But the strategy may have underestimated the importance of one key element of human nature: when it comes to voting, people like to back a winner, and a winner, Rudy ain't.

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Diaries

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