Romneycare & Obamacare

The CNN poll shows Romney as being the slight frontrunner among the GOP 2012:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 22%
 Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 18%
 Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 17%
 Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 8%
 Texas Congressman Ron Paul 8%
 Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 5%
 Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 5%
 Indiana Congressman Mike Pence 4%
 Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour 1%

This morning at the AAPC pollies conference, I listed to Stan Greenberg describe the recently passed HCR as a bill based on Republican ideas (individual mandate, market-driven), and a number of writers have pointed this out lately. The bill was, as Nancy Pelosi pointed out, “built on a series of principles that Republicans espoused for years.

So, for Romney, there's an initial reaction that he's toast, and Pawlenty's campaign is seeking to tie Romney to the bill. He does have a positive:

One thing Romney can say, and that Democrats can't, is that Romney's bill was bipartisan. He worked with his Democrats, with Sen. Ted Kennedy. This won't play well with a primary audience, however, especially if "Obamacare" remains as unpopular with Republicans as it is right now.

Waldman says there's a real possibility of HCR not even being an '12 threshold issue, and that seems a distinct possibility given the bills guiding principles. Here's one way to look at Romney:

His transparent lack of beliefs, his willingness to adopt any position he thinks will win a moment's affection from the person he's talking to, his eagerness to say and do absolutely anything, no matter how ridiculous, in the pursuit of power -- it has a kind of purity, a phoniness so complete it's charming.

 

Sarah Palin Already Losing the 2012 GOP Primary

Along with the superb numbers for Obama (a 53 to 40 lead) in the latest Newsweek poll, we find more bad news for John McCain's VP nominee:

Sarah Palin continues to be a major drag on the McCain ticket. For the first time since McCain picked Palin as his running mate, more voters, 46 percent, have an unfavorable opinion of the Alaska governor, than have a favorable opinion, 44 percent. Nearly a third of voters, 31 percent, say that McCain's choice of Palin makes them less likely to vote for him, while 19 percent say the Palin pick makes them more likely to choose McCain (49 percent say it makes no difference). Perhaps most concerning for the McCain campaign is that 34 percent of independents say the Palin pick makes them less likely to support McCain, compared to 45 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans.

Of course, that's nearly conventional wisdom by now - Palin is making McCain bleed independents and helping give Obama an edge as we enter the final stretch. But buried near the end of the poll is this fascinating question, asked only of Republicans and Republican leaning voters...

If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?

The topline results are an amazing repudiation of the McCain/ Palin ticket:

Mitt Romney 35%
Mike Huckabee 26%
Sarah Palin 20%
Other Candidate 10%
Don't Know 9%

Among "traditional" Republicans, it's:

Mitt Romney 42%
Mike Huckabee 23%
Sarah Palin 19%
Other Candidate 9%
Don't Know 7%

Even among "social conservative" Republicans, Sarah still trails Mittens and Huckabee:

Mitt Romney 30%
Mike Huckabee 31%
Sarah Palin 23%
Other Candidate 8%
Don't Know 8%

Now, it's always been assumed that even if Palin had lost moderate and swing voters, she still had the support of the base. And by a 38-9 margin, Republicans say Palin makes it more likely that they will support McCain. But it may be that many Republicans LIKE Palin, but that that doesn't translate into a desire to see her as the presidential nominee in her own race. Quite frankly, it may be that many Republicans see the writing on the wall as much as everyone else and simple believe Palin is not the most qualified candidate. It's also not great news for Giuliani, who apparently is already in the early stages of launching his 2012 effort.

So, while this election is clearly not over, and obviously a lot can happen in 4 years, we're left with an interesting take away - at the moment, Republicans clearly prefer McCain's primary rival, Romney, over his chosen successor, Palin, for 2012.

There's more...

Mormons Dismissed by McCain and the GOP - PsyOps 101

The GOP has been deploying Psychological Operations against the Democrats all year, and it works.  

The trick is to play on tendencies that are near the surface and enhance them, just like you cannot hypnotize someone and get them to kill their best friend but you can get them to do something they would almost have considered doing anyway.  I'm not even going to use the Democratic Primaries as an example of how this works - because that is the prime purpose of the GOP PsyOps, to get us having these conversations - but rather the GOP primaries:

Mormons Dismissed by McCain and the GOP

There's more...

Draft Romney

If there is  a draft Romney movement out there, we should be jumping all over it encouraging Johny Mac to pick the gool ol' varmint hunter as his running mate.  The main rationale (with the other rationale being Mitt's trust fund) for Romney as veep stems from one surveyusa poll conducted two months ago that shows him providing McCain with a boost in Michigan.  Those surveyusa VP polls were probably better use as toilet paper considering that these same polls showed Edwards helping Obama by as many as ten points in some states.  Just think about how implausible that outcome is for Edwards, a guy who couldn't beat a black guy and white woman among WHITE  voters in three of the four states he competed in is all of a sudden a gangbuster VP.  

The same principle applies to Mitt as veep; I bet you that both HRC and Obama were privately cheering for this hack, though Howard Dean claims that Mitt represented the pub's best chance (I still believe it was Huckabee).  For all the talk about HRC being "polarizing," Romney's unfavorables are close to 50% (favorables are only at 42%) according to Rasmussen despite the fact that he was only under the national microscope for just three months.  

The Romney helps McCain with Mormons rationale is equally silly; though there is a sizable Mormon population in Colorado and Nevada, if McCain is struggling to win Mormons, he's screwed anyway.  It would be analogous to Obama struggling with unmarried women.  If McCain doesn't choose Romney, we should play the Mormon card by making use of Harry Reid for once and having him tell Mormons across Nevada and Colorado that McCain screwed over Romney and strung him along in order to get into his wallet (which is what the pubs will do if Obama doesn't pick HRC).

That's my dream ticket: McCain/Romney, two guys who could have a pretty good debate with themselves on a daily basis as to what they believe.  I cannot think of two bigger douchebags on a ticket than McCain and Romney.  Obama should use the old McCain line against the two of them by conceding that they are the "ticket of change."

There's more...

Mitt Romney Wins Montana, McCain third

Short and quick

Romney:   38%
Paul:     25%
McCain:   22%
Huckabee: 15%

So yeah, our front runner isn't the only one who loses late primaries.

There's more...

Diaries

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