by Todd Beeton, Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 10:27:00 AM EDT
The latest AP/Ipsos poll has the clearest sign yet of Republican discontent with their choices for president: the "None/Unsure" categories beat the top candidate, Rudy Giuliani, 23% to 21%.
What's remarkable about this is the movement from last month's poll. In June, the "None/Unsure" categories accounted for 14% (and Rudy Giuliani was well ahead with 27%.) Since then, more than 50% more of the people who were unsure about whom to support then are unsure today. So where are these people coming from?
Between June and July, Rudy Giuliani has dropped 6 points (from 27% to 21%) and John McCain has dropped 4 points (from 19% to 15%.) In this same period, Fred Thompson has risen only 2 points (from 17% to 19%) and Mitt Romney has gained just 1 (from 10% to 11%.) In other words, Republicans are fleeing the frontrunners but aren't happy with the guys waiting in the wings.
Hmm, wasn't Thompson supposed to be the white knight, riding in to rescue the discontented GOP base from its lame stable of candidates? Looks like they're not buying him either, or at least the enthusiasm that was there for him in theory has lessened as they've found themselves confronted with yet another problematic candidate (a pro-campaign finance reform lobbyist of all things!)
So maybe this bodes well for yet another unannounced candidate, say Gingrich for example. Oops, he was included in this poll too and drops from 7% to 5%.
It almost makes you want to feel bad for the GOP base. Almost.Update [2007-7-17 15:7:50 by Todd Beeton]: As point of contrast, on the Democratic side the "none/unsure" folks account for 13% vs. 10% last month. As for the national primary numbers, Polling Report has them and check out georgep's diary for a side by side comparison of AP, Gallup and Zogby, all of which show a stable race on the Democratic side.