Virginia Primary June 9th

The state of Virginia has it's statewide general election on November 3rd, 2009; it's an opportunity to select our next Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Delegates to every house seat in the state, and roughly 1/3rd the state senators.  Most localities also hold their county and city elections at the same time.  Aside from the US National elections, this is the most important election in Virginia's four year election cycle.

The primary elections for the Democratic and Republican parties will be on June 9th, 2009; and this could well be the most important primary in state elections in many years.  We have a three way race to chose a Democratic candidate for Governor, and a four way race to chose a Democratic candidate for Lt Governor.

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Primary endgame, VP BBQ

If you love Hillary, you won't love today's Left, Right & Center...but it's a good show, with discussion of Hillary's endgame (I know! don't blame me, I am just the messenger!), McCain's age, health and Veepstakes, Obama's gaffe and lastly, Bob blames Bush for high oil prices. We'd love to hear your comments, tune in to the podcast anytime, the live stream at 2:30 and 7 pm pacific time, or listen later on-demand at KCRW.com. (Oh yeah: in SoCal, we're on air, too! We are a radio station, after all! 89.9 FM and other frequencies.)

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Obama v Clinton, vote totals [Update: 50/50!]

{UPDATE: Yer lameness had the Arizona vote totals wrong (thanks minvis!). So, I take most of what follows back . . . Obama in fact, using my calculations, leads Clinton by 82,781 votes. She has 12,687,081 primary votes and he has 12,769,862. Obama leads Clinton 50.16% to 49.84%.}

NEVERMIND: I realize it may be hard to read the chart below, but I see an excel spreadsheet as the only way to question the vote totals in Max Fletcher's What will it take for Clinton to catch Obama in the popular vote?, at openleft and at mydd.

NEW CHART W ACCURATE nearly 50/50 vote split: Photobucket

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Democratic, Republican Nominations At A Glance, June 24th

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 24
State polls are all May 4--June 24. Last update: June 24, 4:10 pm eastern
StateEst. Date# PollsClintonObamaEdwardsRichardson
Net Avail CashMar 31Q1$23.4M$17.7M$9.6M$5.0M
IowaJan 07722.7%19.6%26.7%8.0%
New HampshireJan 15533.6%20.6%16.0%9.4%
NevadaJan 19239.5%16.5%14.0%6.5%
South CarolinaJan 22529.2%27.6%16.8%--
FloridaJan 29736.9%18.1%16.6%5.2%
NationalFeb 05NA34.0%22.1%12.2%3.0%

It's all about Iowa. If Clinton were to win Iowa, she will probably run the table. She probably would even be OK if she finishes in second in Iowa, as long as Obama isn't the winner. But what happens if she finishes third, or even fourth in the state? Will it be enough to wipe out her lead in New Hampshire? That is a difficult question to answer. The primary calendar remains another huge question mark. Iowa and New Hampshire might move as much as one full month before Nevada, which changes the strategic landscape entirely. Richardson's continued rise, as he now surpasses the 5% threshold even in Florida, is also interesting.

Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 24
State polls are all May 30--June 24. Last update: June 24, 4:10 pm eastern
StateEst. Date# PollsGiulianiRomneyF. ThompsonMcCain
Net Avail CashMar 31Q1$9.7M$9.1M--$2.6M
IowaJan 07311.7%28.3%14.0%8.0%
New HampshireJan 15317.7%27.3%10.7%17.7%
NevadaJan 19219.0%21.5%20.5%12.0%
South CarolinaJan 22217.5%13.5%26.0%11.0%
FloridaJan 29230.5%10.0%17.0%11.5%
NationalFeb 05NA26.3%9.6%17.3%16.8%

For Republicans, I have removed all state polls that were conducted before Thompson's announcement. His entrance represents a major watershed in the Republican nomination campaign that renders all pre-Thompson polls meaningless. As far as the horserace goes, I know I have already written it several times, but since it feels so good, I'll write it again anyway: McCain is finished. His best showing is a tie for second in New Hampshire, where he trails Romney by almost ten points. The other three, Giuliani, Romney and Thompson, are very difficult to separate right now, although neither the trends nor the early state polls favor Giuliani. Can Giuliani survive poor early state showings and still do well in both Florida and on February 5th,, or will he goes the way of McCain, simply with more lag time? Can Romney translate strong early state showings into big time results on February 5th, or will he start to fade now that Thompson is a real competitor for the anti-McCain / Giuliani vote? Will Thompson continue to rise, and eventually wipe the other candidates away, or will he stagnate in the early states, and remain a regional (Southern and Mountain West) candidate? Right now, this is one helluva horserace, with far more twists and turns than the Democratic side of the campaign.

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Pollster.com Early State Poll Averages

I'm a big fan of Pollster.com, and so when they finally released graphs and trendlines on the 2008 early states back on Monday, I couldn't let my hiatus from blogging stand in the way. Here are my Democratic and Republican Nomination "at a glance" tables, entirely utilizing Pollster.com estimated polling trends (for some background on the Pollster.com trends, see here and here):

Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 21
Polling estimates taken from Pollster.com
StateEst. DateClintonObamaEdwardsRichardson
Net Avail CashMar 31$23.4M$17.7M$9.6M$5.0M
IowaJan 0721.0%19.1%25.0%10.8%
New HampshireJan 1533.4%19.3%16.4%9.1%
NevadaJan 1936.0%16.5%14.0%5.5%
South CarolinaJan 2226.7%32.0%11.9%1.3%
FloridaJan 2937.9%18.7%13.3%3.9%
NationalFeb 0534.0%22.1%12.2%3.0%

The most interesting graph for Democrats is in Iowa, which shows Edwards, Clinton and Obama all slightly, and slowly, trending down. The big beneficiary is obviously Richardson, who clearly seems to be a player in Iowa now. I still have to wonder what will happen to the campaign if Clinton finishes in third, or even fourth, in Iowa. Will it be enough to eliminate her advantage in New Hampshire, Nevada, or national polls? I honestly have no idea, which is why Iowa remains the most interesting element of the Democratic horserace right now.

Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 21
Polling estimates taken from Pollster.com
StateEst. DateGiulianiRomneyF. ThompsonMcCain
Net Avail CashMar 31$9.7M$9.1MNA$2.6M
IowaJan 0712.3%25.8%16.8%9.4%
New HampshireJan 1517.6%27.9%10.9%20.9%
NevadaJan 1932.5%15.0%13.0%18.5%
South CarolinaJan 2219.1%12.1%24.7%7.6%
FloridaJan 2929.6%7.7%21.1%12.3%
NationalFeb 0526.3%9.6%17.3%16.8%

Giuliani's advantage in Nevada is overstated largely due to the small number of polls in the state, as the two most recent polls out of Nevada actually average to a slight advantage for Romney. Also, as McCain craters in Iowa and South Carolina, as he falls behind Fred Thompson nationally, and as his monetary woes continue, I have dropped him to fourth place in the Republican nomination contest. He really seems to be finished. Also, while the top three on the Republican side, Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson, are difficult to separate at this point, it probably won't be long before Giuliani drops into third place. If Fred Thompson can get a nice monetary haul, and also move up in New Hampshire polls, the Republican nomination will rather surprisingly become a battle between Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. Notably, every Democrat leads both Thompson and Romney in head-to-head poll averages, although Clinton's leads are considerably narrower than Edwards' and Obama's. Also, Thompson keeps all Dems under 50%.

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