A Look Underneath The Straw Poll

Vote in the MyDD February Straw Poll

In truth, the MyDD Straw polls just can't compete with the Dailykos straw polls. Typically, we haul in around 2-3,000 votes over the course of a week, while the Dailykos polls bring in around 11-12,000 votes over the course of a day. This makes the Dailykos polls significantly more immune to poll stuffing, as stuffers have less time to alert their email lists and / or repeatedly change their IP addresses / cookies so that they can personally stuff a poll. By way of contrast, I'm pretty sure that there are at least three major poll stuffing groups on MyDD. Interestingly, I think they show up at different times: Feingold stuffers come first, then the Clark stuffers show up, and near the end Edwards stuffers take over. I've seen this pattern operate like clockwork since at least September.

While the Dailykos straw polls probably have a more accurate finger on the pulse of the netroots than the MyDD polls, one advantage we have at MyDD is that our polls are done via Instant Runoff. This allows MyDD polls to give a deeper sense of netroots support beyond just who is the current favorite. I spent this morning looking over the results of the last four MyDD straw polls trying to see if the lower portions of people's ballots held any surprises or indications of future trends.

For starters, here are the second-choices for supporters of various candidates:

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Dumping duff Dem senators: the record

It's been a bit of a theme recently, what with Lieberman voting for the Alito cloture and all.

I just wondered how often it's actually happened. Flipping back to 1980 on the Wikipedia Senate election pages, I only spotted the one incumbent Dem who lost in a primary, Alan Dixon, who lost to Carol Moseley-Braun in 1992.

Now plenty of Dem senators retired over that period, of course. And it's more than likely that some of those were guys who, facing likely defeat in their primary, decided to find some diplomatic ailment or other to excuse themselves from the race.

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MyDD February 2006 Straw Poll

It's a new month, and thus its time for a new straw poll.

Go vote now.

Here have been the previous results (January, December, November):


First Round
                       Jan     Dec     Nov
Feingold        34.1    28.1    25.7
Clark             27.6    22.1     28.4
Warner          13.7    15.6     10.6
Edwards        12.8    11.3     12.2
Richardson      4.6      4.6       4.3
Unsure             2.2      8.0       6.6
Clinton            1.9       4.9      6.2
Kerry               1.8       3.0      2.2
Bayh                0.6      1.6       1.9
Biden               0.4      1.5       1.3
Vilsack            0.4      0.5        0.5
Others*            --         --         --

Eighth Round
                       Jan     Dec     Nov
Feingold        37.3    32.7     31.8
Clark             29.8    27.3     34.4
Warner          17.3    23.5     15.3
Edwards        15.6    16.4     18.4

"Unsure" took a beating last month. Perhaps allegiances are starting to form. Perhaps there was just more poll stuffing on behalf of the top candidates. Everyone except Feingold, Clark and Edwards actually either lost ground or stayed flat.

And here are the Dailykos results, and the Dailykos trends. It is amazing to think that just seven months ago, Clinton and Feingold were tied. There has been clear downward movement for Hillary, and clear upward movement for Feingold and Warner over the long term. If Feingold rises any further, he will start hitting Dean levels of support ala 2003. While Matt is absolutely right, the netroots are still a lot more powerful now than they were three years ago. Progess has been made.

A new candidate has been added to the February poll: Tom Daschle. I don't imagine he will get many votes, but he seems to be running as much as anyone else on this list.

Go vote now.

Remember that running a shadow campaign for President is the requirement to be in this poll, not online support. If online support was a requirement, I would have dropped Vilsack, Biden and Bayh from these polls a long time ago. But this isn't about online support: all eleven of these folks are already running a shadow campaign for President. Gore isn't: no leadership PAC, no staff, no anything. If the Gore folks out there want Gore to be included, then they better start a serious Draft Gore movement that contains most of the trappings of a shadow campaign: a real email list, lots of pledged donations, press releases, a professional website, and actual staff. Unless that happens (or unless Gore goes ahead and does that himself) he isn't going to be included in these polls. And no amount of whining will change that.

Go vote now.

There's more...

NV-St.Sen: Explosive audio of possible bribe

[cross-posted at DLCC.org]

Something in the water must be affecting Republican primaries in Nevada. Hot on the heels of the “chickens for checkups” incident roiling the U.S. Senate race, an incumbent State Senator has been caught on tape allegedly offering to bribe the parents of a rape victim in an effort to protect the man who was convicted in the case:

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