The Reality-Based Community and The Pennsylvania Senate Race

Wherein I discuss my work as a committeeperson in Philadelphia, make an endorsement in the Democratic Senate primary in Pennsylvania, scold other supporters of the same candidate for not being willing to support Bob Casey after the primary, make it clear that Casey has a great chance to win the race, get arrogant about my election analysis, and offer numerous examples of ways to impact real progressive change in Pennsylvania and nationwide--Chris

The short version is in italics above. The long version is in the extended entry.

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CT-Sen: First Poll

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The primary in Connecticut will take place in almost six months--173 days to be precise-- on Tuesday, August 8, 2006. Given this, I would like to take a look back at Lieberman's poll performance in another recent Democratic primary in Connecticut over a similar amount of time. From the subscriber section of polling report:

Quinnipiac University Poll. Nov. 12-18, 2003. Statewide:

"Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices . . . ." N=509 Democratic voters, MoE ± 4.3


                  11/18     4/28
Lieberman     28        46
Dean             23         6
Others          39        36
Unsure          10        11

That is a pretty catastrophic collapse on Lieberman's part. He lost 35 points in 204 days. Importantly, this collapse occurred during a time when Lieberman was also campaigning for President full-throttle (if such a term can ever be applied to Lieberman). Also, all of his support went to Dean, another netroots fueled candidate.

So where does Lamont stack up six months out? Quinnipiac has some numbers:

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lieberman is handling his job as United States Senator?


           Approve      Disapprove    Unsure
All             63             25          11
Dems        57             30          13

15. Is your opinion of United States Senator Joseph Lieberman favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?


          Favorable     Unfavorable    Mixed    Don't Know
All             53             16          23          8
Dems        50             20          24          6

17. Is your opinion of businessman Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?


          Favorable     Unfavorable    Mixed    Don't Know
All              2              2           3         93
Dems         3              2           1         94

20. (If registered democrat)If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont for whom would you vote?

Lieberman          68
Lamont              13
Unsure / Other   19

So Lamont is down 55 points to Lieberman, which is greater than Dean's deficit at the same point in time. More worryingly, Lieberman is well over 50.

However, looking at these numbers tells me that there is potential for a lot of movement against Lieberman, and fast. He receives 68% of the primary vote, but he has 94% name ID to Lamont's 6%. He receives 68% of the primary vote, but his approval among Dems is only 57%, and his favorables among Dems are only 50%. While this does not show that Lieberman is vulnerable yet, these numbers do show that Lamont could move up to around 30%, and push Lieberman down in the 50's, very quickly if he gets some name ID.

Lieberman has a history of sinking approval ratings during campaigns, and his performance against Dean in his home state shows that he can potentially lose a lot of ground fast. Given that, if Lamont can make this a 20-25 point deficit by June, then suddenly he is in the ballgame. Throw in an army of volunteers on the ground, and Lieberman might be in some trouble.

These may not be the numbers we wanted at first, but it certainly isn't hopeless. Volunteering is probably the best thing you can do in this race, but don't let that stop you from donating.

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Cuellar Wants To Deputize Minuteman

In case you somehow hadn't heard of racist Colorado representative Tom Tancredo yet, check out this article on Right Web:
Rep. Tom Tancredo, who has represented Colorado's Sixth District since 1999, has in the last six years succeeded in rallying an anti-immigrant populist revolt that brings together the nativists, religious right, cultural supremacists, militia movement, and anti-immigration policy institutes with a new anti-immigration wing of the Republican Party.
The entire article is very good, and you should check it out if you want to know more about just how crazy Tancredo is.

Can you guess who has joined forces with ultra-right Tancredo? Why it is everyone's favorite "Democrat,"Henry Cuellar:
U.S. Congressman Henry Cuellar -- a so-called Democrat from Laredo, Texas -- wants to give $100 million dollars to the Minutemen, the racist, gun-toting vigilante group.

Last October, Representative Cuellar sponsored a bill called the "Border Law Enforcement Act of 2005" that would essentially deputize members of the Minutemen militia by giving them new titles, badges and guns.

There is a saying in Spanish,"dime con quien andas y te dire quien eres," which basically means that you can tell a lot about a person by the company that they keep. Representative Cuellar sponsored the "Border Law Enforcement Act" with none other than the "Grand Dragon" of the anti-immigrant legislators - Rep. Tom Tancredo, Republican from Colorado. Cuellar's bill is also part of the draconian House-passed immigration reform bill HR 4437, which, among other wrong headed ideas, would further militarize the US/Mexico border, build a Berlin-style wall all along the border, and criminalize millions of immigrants and good Samaritans.
I can't believe this guy is representing our party. Let's make sure he won't be for much longer.

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TX-28: Cuellar Funds Vigilantes

cross posted on Mydd and Kos

I'm sure you all are well aware now that Rep. Cueller is being challenged by Ciro Rodriguez in the primary for the TX-28 seat in '06 in which the Republicans are not even putting forth a candidate.


What is new is that, bluelatinos.org has created a petition to tell Cueller to withdraw his support of an absolutley scandalous right-wing bill that he sponsered.  This bill would give $100 Million to the Minutemen.  An extreme right-wing vigilante group 'patroling' the border with Mexico.

I encourage everyone to go to www.bluelatinos.org/cueller and sign the petition to show opposition to Rep. Cueller's draconian ideals.

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The Activist Class War Continues

I tried to make this shorter, I really did. Still, I think it is important, and I ask you to read it anyway--Chris

I have stayed almost completely silent about the Hackett-Brown primary on MyDD. I am not going to offer a candidate preference in this post, but I am going to try and offer an explanation for why the netroots and the blogosphere gave more support to Hackett than Brown, and why there is so much anger over how the primary came to an end.

Two weeks ago, in a post about Hillary Clinton, I posited a class-based view of the progressive movement that I feel strongly applies to what has happened in the Ohio Senate race. My general theory is that if the world of progressive activists is understood as a discrete entity, one can look inside of that entity and see massive class stratifications based upon the greatly differing levels of power over that entity. My theory goes on to postulate that almost the entire audience of the progressive political blogosphere is drawn from the world of progressive activists. While progressive activists of all classes of power use the blogosphere, those with comparatively little power over the direction of the progressive movement greatly outnumber those with moderate or high level of power. It is from this perspective that one can understand why the blogosphere is so regularly angry at what it calls "the establishment" of the Democratic Party and the progressive movement:

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