A Theory on Clinton-Obama and McCain-Romney

So the polls had Obama taking a significant bump from Iowa to a large New Hampshire victory over Clinton, and there was only supposed to be a hair of difference between McCain and Romney.

Were the polls crazy?

No.  I don't think so.  How?  Here's a pretty simple theory.

New Hampshire's independent voters ostensibly preferred Obama among the Democrats and McCain among the Republicans.  These independents were waiting until the day of the primary election to decide which candidate to turn out for.

Given that the polls looked so much stronger for Obama's victory, many of these independents (who were polling in support of Obama) decided that, with Obama's New Hampshire victory looking so secure, they might as well use their vote to make sure McCain bested Romney.  Only, so many of these independent voters thought the same thing that it shifted Obama's comfortable margin of victory to McCain.

So what should the pollsters and the media do?  Instead of analyzing how Clinton beat Obama, they should check in with McCain-voting independents who decided in the last couple days to vote in the Republican primary for McCain, and I'll bet you that a good chunk of them saw Obama comfortably winning so they gave their vote to McCain - and that the polls were accurate in terms of gauging their support - they just weren't accurate in gauging whether they'd vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries.

That's my theory anyway.

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7 Reasons Why I love Contested Elections

I know there are some Obama supproters who may think that Obama coming in second is a bad thing.

I know there are probably some Clinton supporters who are thinking "thank god, Clinton is the new come back kid!"

I am an Edwards supporter, and all I have is his message which I hope he continues to bring to the race.

But, this isn't about that. This is about a principle that I've slowly developed since 2004. I love contested elections. Let me give you 10 brief reasons why below the fold.

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Exit polls: O (39.44%), H (38.12%), E (15.72%)

A quick post as I didn't see this reported on the TV shows.

If we calculate the total percentages from CNN exit polls, using male/female split numbers given, we get these results:

(Richardson 4.72%, Kucinich 1.43% not in this screenshot of the table).

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Obama's message: We're all in this together

dengre's outstanding diary I choose change and I choose Obama! inspired some thoughts and observations about Obama, which I wanted to share with you.

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New Hampshire race appears to continue to tighten

Don't  know if this has been diaried already, but here's the numbers for a new NH poll:

Clinton 37
Obama   23
Edwards 18

Take away: The race in NH is becoming tighter.

Clinton is still favored, but a bounce for either Obama or Edwards w/ these numbers given history means they can take teh state too.

Link is here:

http://unionleader.com/article.aspx?head line=Clinton%2c+Romney+still+ahead+in+ne w+NH+poll&articleId=04464c71-9281-41 af-b9fd-62e89077ba28

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