Pollster New Year

A look back at 2011 in polls with Gallup's Year in Review.  Some highlights:

January -

May -

June -

August -

October -

Nate Silver lines up FiveThirtyEight's hit's and misses of the year

At the Crystal Ball, Sabato takes to the YouTube for 2012 and Abramowitz reminds everyone that no, again, just like every other year, 2012 won't see and anti-incumbent wave.  So what are voters thinking then?  "Meh"  and "Go Packers!"

And finally, per tradition, polling on the first GOP candidates in Iowa is all over the place, but Mark Blumenthal says there's one last "one to watch" of 2011:

On New Year's Eve exactly four years ago, the Des Moines Register released its final poll of Iowa caucus-goers and turned the political world upside down.

While the newspaper's final Iowa Caucus poll of 2011, set to be published Saturday night at 7 p.m. Central Time (8 p.m. Eastern Time), may not confound the conventional wisdom this time, it is among the most eagerly anticipated political polls of the season for good reason. The Register has a hard-earned reputation for accuracy grounded in the fundamentals of survey research: Assume as little as possible about the likely caucus-goers, and let the voters speak for themselves.

Happy New Year.

Voters Turning Inward

Sabato on the prospect of a  "bin Laden" bump for Obama/Democrats in 2012?

[...] the killing of bin Laden, as ordered by a Democratic president, gives Democrats a convenient and easy-to-understand answer whenever challenged by Republicans on national security: “Republicans had seven years under George W. Bush to get bin Laden. They failed. Democrats got him in a little over two.”

That potentially powerful argument may mean a lot when the country inevitably refocuses on national security in some future election. But whether it matters much for next year’s presidential election, when the focus will likely remain on the economy, is very much an open question.

This week Pew released their Political Typology report, which concludes voters -- especially swing voters -- aren't paying as much attention.  In 2005, military strength vs. diplomacy was the question dividing voters clearly on partisan lines, with disafecteds and undecideds left to pick a side.  The new report shows that while there is still a split on that issue, it's primarily between Republican subsets not Democrats and Republicans. The majority of voters have turned "inward."  Blumenthal:

As the report explains in more detail, we see even less division among the groups on a variety of foreign policy and national security issues, including the war in Afghanistan, the use of force in Libya, the trade-offs between privacy and safety from terrorism and the role of foreign trade.

What now divides the party groups more clearly are attitudes about the efficiency and worthiness of government and the social safety network. These are also the issues now most likely to create cross-pressure on true swing voters. For example, 45 percent of the Democratic-leaning Post Moderns worry that "government is almost always wasteful and inefficient," while 61 percent of the Republican-leaning Disaffecteds agree that "the government should do more to help needy Americans, even it if means going deeper into debt."

National security never fully leaves the equation, but any role it plays in 2012 will boost Democrats, and Republicans will shy away from the issue entirely.  Swing voters will be busy pondering the value of Social Security, Medicare, and the health of the economy.

Probably why we're seeing Republicans run away from Paul Ryan's budget -- which all but 6 House Republicans voted for -- as fast as they can.

 

 

 

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

"The Saga of Partisan Affairs"

Some highlights from the world of numbers crunching.

Nate Silver: Scott Brown's early 2010 victory may have been an early bell-weather for Democratic losses, but it was an outlier and Brown may be vulnerable:

The tsunami that hit Democrats last month — as large as it was — was remarkably precise and orderly, all things considered: given that the Democrats lost more than 60 seats, they lost almost exactly the 60 seats that you might have expected them to lose based on the overall partisanship of the districts. That did not include seats similar to Massachusetts, where Democrats in fact held on to all 10 congressional districts, even though several of the seats had been considered vulnerable.

Pollster: Americans have been ready for DADT repeal for over a decade.

Some outlets use a favor/oppose construction, others use yes/no or agree/disagree. Some outlets use the word "homosexuals," others use "gays and lesbians." ...

Regardless of the question wording, the basic result is the same. For sixteen years Americans have been supportive of allowing gays and lesbians to openly serve in the military.

PPP: Montana Republicans want former Governor, former insurance lobbyist, and former Bush adviser Marc Racicot as their 2012 Senate candidate challenging Jon Tester:

Most would like to see either Marc Racicot (40%) or Denny Rehberg (37%) end up with the nod. Rehberg has near universal popularity with the Republican base (75/14) and although he gets a lot of 'not sures' 10 years removed from the Governor's office pretty much all Republicans with an opinion about Racicot like him (58/12 favorability). It's hard to imagine anyone else winning the nomination if either of them end up running

Also, they loves themselves some Palin/Huckabee.

Thomas Schaller takes a look at CO, NH, OH, VA in 2010, areas of biggest gain for Democrats in the previous three midterms, and concludes:

...just two years after Obama’s precedent-setting victory, America remains entrenched in a period of partisan dealignment and gridlock, and divided government nationally. Despite steady Republican gains since Ronald Reagan’s 1980 election, followed by a stinging Republican rebuke by a revitalized Democratic Party during the late stages of George W. Bush’s presidency, the shifting fortunes of the two major parties in these four states suggest that this saga of partisan affairs may well continue for some time.

Maybe this is because voters are having difficult time distiguishing between the two parties these days?

Finally, you're losing the messaging war, Mr. President.

The president's overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested -- foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes -- are within two to four points of that rating. Obama's ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval -- by 7 and 10 points, respectively.

 

 

Diaries

Advertise Blogads