The Not-So-Swinging Obama

Since 1960, no one has won the White House without carrying two of these three states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Combined they account for 68 Electoral College votes (ECVs), or a quarter of the ECVs required to win the White House.

Today, Public Policy Polling has a poll out looking at the approval ratings of the President in these three critical swing states.

-In Florida Obama's approval is 39% with 55% of voters disapproving of him. 88% of Republicans disapprove while just 73% of Democrats approve and independents go against him by a 52/36 margin. Only 78% of people who voted for him in 2008 like the job he's doing while 93% who voted against him disapprove.

-In Pennsylvania Obama's approval is 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him. 85% of Republicans disapprove while just 68% of Democrats approve and independents go against him by a 63/32 margin. Only 78% of people who voted for him in 2008 like the job he's doing while 93% who voted against him disapprove, identical numbers to Florida on that count.

-In Ohio Obama's approval is 42% with 54% of voters disapproving of him. 94% of Republicans disapprove while only 79% of Democrats approve and independents go against him by a 58/33 margin. Only 76% of people who voted for him in 2008 approve while 91% who voted against him disapprove.

The numbers are brutal and the takeaways are clear. Those who disliked Obama in 2008 really disliked him now. Among Democrats, approval of the President is increasingly tepid with only four in five Democrats in Florida and Pennsylvania approving of the President's performance. In Ohio, just three of four Democrats expressing approval. The number should be closer to nine in ten.

It is among independents, however, where the data is most worrisome.  In Pennsylvania, independents disapprove of the President's performance by a 2-to1 margin. In Florida, where approval for Obama remains strongest, independents still break by 16 points against the President. In Ohio, the break is 25 points.

However, there's another aspect here that merits pointing out. With the President still earning approval from at least three in four Democrats, there really isn't much of an opening for anyone to mount a primary challenge. Come 2012, we'll sink or swim with Obama.

MI-09: Skinner vs. Knollenberg Within Margin of Error!

Crossposted from DailyKos

Joe Knollenberg (R): 44%
Nancy Skinner (D): 40%
Margin of Error 4.9%

Great news for Democrats everywhere: Joe Knollenberg is in trouble. Knollenberg has amassed an impressive war chest, in part due to over $50,000 in contributions from the oil industry. But a new poll shows MI-09 is now a toss up! Knollenberg is no longer safe, and can't dish contributions out to GOP buddies across the nation. He can no longer take the voters of Oakland County for granted.

Nancy Skinner is one step closer to bringing New Energy to Congress.

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