Pew Poll: Clinton Widens Lead Two-To-One

Hillary Clinton has widened her advantage over Barack Obama to nearly two-to-one and has drawn support from her nearest rival from groups that had been among his strongest backers: independent-leaning Democrats and political liberals.

The current survey finds 40% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic now say they would like to see Clinton win their party's nomination while Obama is the choice of 21%. In a little over three months, Clinton has more than doubled her advantage over the Illinois Democrat from nine-points in March to 19-points in the current survey. Trailing even further behind are Al Gore (12%), who has not announced his candidacy, and John Edwards (11%), who continues to lose ground.

Clinton has made significant inroads into voter groups that had broadly supported Obama earlier in the year. For example, Clinton now leads Obama by more than two-to-one (41% vs. 17%) among Democratic-leaning independents.

And while college graduates favored Obama over Clinton by 31% to 24% in earlier Pew polling, Clinton has opened up a 34% to 23% advantage here as well. Still, less educated Democrats remain Clinton's strongest backers.

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Loads of Dems think US can 'win' in Iraq

A few days ago, Jonathan cited a recent Pew survey for its results on Iran.

Their stuff is always worth mooching around in, and, as early as page 5, pulls up this dispiriting stat:

On the question Will the US achieve its goals in Iraq? the nation is split down the middle (47-46, in fact).

The partisan split, however, is nowhere near as clear cut as you - OK, I - thought.

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Republican Nightmare: Country Lines Up for Democrats (Pew, Graphs)

Yes, the Republican Nightmare is coming to a city near you:  their base is (slowly) shrinking but the vast political middle of the country is waking up.  Fear is no longer working.  Everything 9/11 changed is changing back, and then some.

Pew's generic House ballot shows even `safe' Republicans are vulnerable. People are voting on national, not local issues, and the top issue is Iraq.  Since 2002, major survey categories have swung towards the Democrats: moderates, women, and young folks.  These are amazing numbers - are moderates the Democrats' new base?


Click to enlarge.  Large numbers mean we're winning that group; zero is a tie.

Join me below to see just how bad it is, get a boost of euphoria, and then harness that happiness and get back to work. (And of course, I've got lots of graphs for those of you who enjoy that sort of thing.) Cross-posted on DailyKos.

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Blowout Lessons 1994 vs 2006

2006 (like 1994) was an off year election. To win with lower turnout requires either:
 - Persuading Independents,
 - Turning out the base
 - Being lucky with complacent opponents

Blog Wisdom (BW) asserts that a Dem 2006 blowout will require leadership, not just Republican failure. We are frequently reminded these days that the Republican Party and George Bush are experiencing a lot of negatives right now: The 190th Do Nothing Congress, Failure in Iraq, Immigration. My local US Rep, Diana De Gette at the Denver County Assembly admitted the Dem strategy of standing by to watch the Republicans collapse, asserting something to the effect of: If they are failing just fine without us, intervening might disturb the process.

The lesson from the 1994 Republican blowout is one of GOP Positives, not Dem Negatives. Look at chart number 4 at the recent  "Public Disillusionment with Congress", which is directly linked to on the flip...

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