by Todd Beeton, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:56 PM EDT
In the end, Zogby and Suffolk U both had Clinton by 10% and therefore win the PA poll sweepstakes. As for PPP, whose turnout model resulted in an Obama lead of 3% as recently as this weekend, tonight they're the ones who get to eat their words and swallow their pride. And I have to say, they do so with wit and integrity over at their blog (really, every pollster should have one.)
First off, please do not call us or e-mail us and tell us we suck! We are well aware, and it does not feel good.
It's pretty easy, based on the exit polls, to see where we went wrong. We had the black vote at 18% when it turned out to be 14-15%, and we had the under 45 vote at 41% when it turned out to be 31%.
I reweighted the results from our final Pennsylvania poll to those figures for race and age, and the result of our poll was flipped- Hillary leading 49-46. Assume she pulled 60% of the undecideds and that gives her the 52-48 lead that the extrapolation from the original exit polls does.
Now, this may have been written before Hillary's lead was revealed to be as large as 10% so I'm still curious to see how they explain a 13 point differential but as Tom Jensen writes, PPP has actually been quite good overall this cycle and this result should not give the outfit a black eye. I assume they'll do far better in NC, which is PPP's home turf. Of course, if they wanted to blend in with the crowd there they haven't done a very good job. Their latest poll has Barack Obama up 25% in NC, a lead that is 10% greater than RCP's 4-poll Ave. and 16% larger than Survey USA's latest.