Confessions Of An Outlier

In the end, Zogby and Suffolk U both had Clinton by 10% and therefore win the PA poll sweepstakes. As for PPP, whose turnout model resulted in an Obama lead of 3% as recently as this weekend, tonight they're the ones who get to eat their words and swallow their pride. And I have to say, they do so with wit and integrity over at their blog (really, every pollster should have one.)

First off, please do not call us or e-mail us and tell us we suck! We are well aware, and it does not feel good.

It's pretty easy, based on the exit polls, to see where we went wrong. We had the black vote at 18% when it turned out to be 14-15%, and we had the under 45 vote at 41% when it turned out to be 31%.

I reweighted the results from our final Pennsylvania poll to those figures for race and age, and the result of our poll was flipped- Hillary leading 49-46. Assume she pulled 60% of the undecideds and that gives her the 52-48 lead that the extrapolation from the original exit polls does.

Now, this may have been written before Hillary's lead was revealed to be as large as 10% so I'm still curious to see how they explain a 13 point differential but as Tom Jensen writes, PPP has actually been quite good overall this cycle and this result should not give the outfit a black eye. I assume they'll do far better in NC, which is PPP's home turf. Of course, if they wanted to blend in with the crowd there they haven't done a very good job. Their latest poll has Barack Obama up 25% in NC, a lead that is 10% greater than RCP's 4-poll Ave. and 16% larger than Survey USA's latest.

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Clinton wins PA and Obama wins Nomination

  First off, hats off to the Clinton campaign...solid win! Congratulations!!

  Now let's analyze the importance of this win tonite. Hillary Clinton will go on...that's a given. But just how much have her nomination, and White House hopes improved? The smart money is they have hardly improved at all. I know I know, Hillary wins big states....Hillary is our first stringer, blah blah...the arguments for why I belive all these arguments are misguided are below the fold

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Mini Tornadoes

Brian Williams on MSNBC tonight:

It's like mini-tornadoes...Think about how the primary process changes each state as it moves through. Pennsylvania is now altered politically because all of this happened. Bucks County started this process Republican, it's now considered a Democratic county. Montgomery County, Philadelphia suburb, ditto, went from majority Republican registration to majority Democrat because of these new voters. In that way this has kind of changed the political landscape.

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Actual Results Thread

Here are some actual numbers:

√ Hillary Clinton: 1,258,245 votes (55 percent)
Barack Obama: 1,042,297 votes (45 percent)

99 percent of precincts reporting (as of 2:03 AM Eastern)

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Hillary Clinton Raises $2.5 Million And Counting

Since Pennsylvania was called for Hillary Clinton 3 hours ago she has raised $2.5 million, 80% of which is from new donors.

Voters do not want this to be over.

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Diaries

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