OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Democrats lead recent polls

A few months ago, Democrats were facing uphill battles in the Ohio races for governor and U.S. Senate. However, recent polls have been more encouraging. A new Quinnipac poll shows Governor Ted Strickland leading Republican John Kasich by 44 percent to 38 percent and both Democratic candidates, Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, narrowly ahead of Republican Rob Portman in the U.S. Senate races, 40-37 and 40-36. Quinnipac was polling registered voters in Ohio, and polls that sample likely voters tend to produce better numbers for Republicans, but as you can see from the Pollster.com chart, several pollsters have found Strickland in a stronger position compared to a few months ago:

Here is the Pollster.com chart of Senate polls testing Portman against Fisher, who will probably win the Democratic primary next Tuesday.

It's not a big lead, but I'll take it in a state where unemployment is above the national average at 11 percent. Money will be a big problem for the Democratic nominee against Portman, who had $7.7 million cash on hand according to his latest FEC filing. Fisher had only about $907,000 on hand, and Brunner had just $59,000.

Share any thoughts about this year's Ohio elections in this thread.

Democrats Moving On Up in Ohio

So sayeth Quinnipiac:

Democrats are having a mini-surge in Ohio as two possible candidates for the open U.S. Senate seat have come from behind to pass the Republican contender, and Gov. Ted Strickland remains ahead of Republican challenger John Kasich, 43 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

And President Barack Obama's job approval is up from a negative 44 - 52 percent February 23 to an almost even 47 - 48 percent today, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds.

In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman 41 - 37 percent, reversing a 40 - 37 percent Portman lead February 24. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner edges Portman 38 - 37 percent, reversing a 40 - 35 percent Republican lead.


Strickland's reelection lead matches his 44 - 39 percent lead February 23. The Governor's 49 - 40 percent job approval and his 46 - 35 percent favorability rating both are statistically the same as his scores in February. There is no gender gap in the Governor's race with 44 percent of men and 42 percent of women backing Strickland.

There are still a large number of undecideds in this survey, and the Democrats are far from a lock from holding on to the state's Governorship or picking up the Senate seat being vacated by the retiring George Voinovich. That said, it's hard to spin this one as bad news for the Democrats, or good news for the Republicans, for that matter -- especially with the well-known GOP candidates failing to even crack the 40 percent mark. So much for the notion that the Democrats are dead in the water ahead of November...

Jennifer Brunner Money Bomb Today!

I'm the New Media Director for the U.S. Senate campaign of a true progressive champion, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. She's the one who cleaned up Ohio's elections in time for the 2008 election of President Obama and a mess of Democrats in Congress, and she won the JFK Profile in Courage Award for her stalwart efforts to protect our votes.

Visit VictoryForCourage.com now for all the fun of today's money bomb. We've got videos, an endorsement messagae scroll, a CoverItLive chat box, and a cool Rosie the Riveter thermometer tracking the contributions as the roll.

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GOP Calls on Brunner to Apologize for Speaking the Truth

And we call on you to help make her our next progressive champion in the U.S. Senate!

Jennifer Brunner is Ohio Secretary of State and the recipient of a JFK Profiles in Courage Award for her successful efforts to clean up Ohio's elections. Yesterday she posted a strong statement against sending more troops to Afghanistan and in favor of a swift timetable for withdrawing our troops, an assessment described as "wise" by The Nation. Secretary Brunner expressed doubt that the advice of Gen. Stanley McChrystal should be followed without significant validation of his recommendations, noting accurately that McCrystal was previously associated with the abuse of detainees and with covering up the truth about the death of Pat Tillman.

For her audacity in telling the truth, the NRSC has called on her to "apologize not only to General McChrystal, but to all American troops, for her inflammatory and baseless attacks."

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Former Bushie Portman Trailing Bad in OH-Sen

If the Republicans are poised for major gains in 2010, shouldn't one of their top Senate recruits in the country be leading, or at least tied, rather than trailing badly in an open seat race they're defending?

Quinnipiac survey of 1,074 Ohio voters, September 10-13, margin of error +/- 3.0%

  • Democrat Lee Fisher 42, Republican Rob Portman 31
  • Democrat Jennifer Brunner 39, Republican Rob Portman 34

Rob Portman is the man the Republicans wanted to run for this seat. He's a former Congressman representing a more competitive portion of Ohio, and he has a huge campaign warchest of close to $5 million more than $4 million (buoyed by money left over from his days in Congress). He also is closely tied into the Republican establishment, having served in not one but two high-ranking positions within the Bush administration. Yet he's trailing by a double-digit margin in a state carried by the GOP twice out of the past three presidential elections in a race opened up by the retirement of a Republican Senator? Please, someone again explain to me how this is shaping up to be a great cycle for the Republicans.

There's more...


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