The Nature of the October Suprise

Cross Posted at Media Pundit.

With Republicans polling poorly and Iraq beginning to look like Arabic for Vietnam, an October surprise by the administration would come as, well, no surprise.  Adding fuel to the speculative fire, Newsmax recently reported that Karl Rove has been promising Republican insiders such a surprise surprise to help them maintain control of the House and the Senate.  Given the fact that this administration has repeatedly placed politics before policy and seems more interested in maintaining power than protecting the American people, it is safe to say that an October surprise is on the way in the next few weeks.

Below I present several possibilities for the form this surprise may take, along with evidence supporting the likelihood of each.  I have listed them in what I understand to be the most likely order of probability, from greatest to least.

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One great Schmuck :Chairman Bernanke

Republicans are smart people, they have great ideas and they talk a great game about how they can solve problems and make the world a better place to live if given the chance and a few more dollars. The trouble comes when the doors are closed to the public and the big hitters with the big influence start to gut any program to make sure the money goes to the "right places".

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North Korea wants to conduct a nuclear test

From No Right Turn - New Zealand's liberal blog:

Great. Just when America is gearing up to bomb Iran, North Korea pops up and announces its intention to conduct a nuclear test.

Well, that's a clear policy success for the Bush Administration's strategy of refusing to negotiate under any circumstances, isn't it?

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Another Wacky Week Under Our Belts

The New York Times reports that lowering of recruiting standards has allowed hate groups to infiltrate the military.

A decade after the Pentagon declared a zero-tolerance policy for racist hate groups, recruiting shortfalls caused by the war in Iraq have allowed "large numbers of neo-Nazis and skinhead extremists" to infiltrate the military, according to a watchdog organization...

... "We've got Aryan Nations graffiti in Baghdad," the [Southern Poverty Law Center] quoted a Defense Department investigator as saying in a report to be posted today on its Web site, www.splcenter.org. "That's a problem."


It's also one more way in which getting stuck in a long, unnecessary war has weakened our professional military's capabilities and effectiveness.  We have neo-Nazis running loose in the land of the Hajis?  There's a "hearts and minds" strategy for you.  

Under the fold: wisdom and power...

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Iraq, Iran, I Wonder What's Next

In the Next World Order I discuss how use of armed force is losing its effectiveness as a tool of national power, more often than not doing more harm than good.  With each passing day, we see further evidence of this phenomenon.  

Under the fold: Iraq, Iran, I wonder what's next...

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