SUSA: Obama Leads By 10 Points in North Carolina

The last several weeks have seen significant movement towards Barack Obama in North Carolina ahead of the state's important May 6 presidential primary. But has that movement been slowed? Take a look at the latest polling on the state, courtesy of SurveyUSA:

Barack Obama: 49 percent
Hillary Clinton: 39 percent

It's worth noting that Obama's lead over Hillary Clinton has actually grown in the SUSA poll (though not outside of the margin of error), with the difference between the two sitting at 8 points last month. However, this latest SUSA poll pegs Obama's lead significantly lower than other recent polling. According to the Pollster.com trend estimate, for example, Obama leads 53.0 percent to 36.4 percent in the Tarheel state. The Real Clear Politics average out of the state gives Obama a 15.6-point advantage, 48.6 percent to 33.0 percent.

So is Obama's North Carolina lead staying the same? Is it shrinking (though still in the double digits)? Is it still growing? My sense, based on the trends from the polling as well as the general demographics from the state, is that Obama has a fairly decent advantage in North Carolina, one that gives him a fairly good shot at winning handily, though one not large enough to allow him to write off the state as a victory by any means.

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Obama Maintaining Lead in North Carolina Polling

Yesterday, former President Bill Clinton apparently said that his wife's White House hopes hinged in many ways on her ability to with the North Carolina Democratic primary next month. Judging by the latest polling out of the Tarheel state, the omens don't look too good for Hillary Clinton's hopes at the Democratic nomination (at least according to her husband's formulation. Here's Rasmussen Reports:

In North Carolina, Barack Obama has opened up a twenty-three percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Obama attracts 56% of the vote while Clinton earns 33%. A month ago, Obama's lead was just seven percentage points.

Here's The Charlotte Observer:

Democrat Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 35 percent to 26 percent among likely voters in North Carolina's May 6 Democratic primary. But nearly four in 10 are still undecided.

Those are among the findings of a new Observer/WCNC Poll.

The overall Pollster.com trend estimate out of North Carolina, which does not include these two new surveys, puts Barack Obama up over Clinton 51.0 percent to 37.6 percent. The Real Clear Politics average, which includes the Rasmussen poll but not the one from The Observer, has Obama up 52.0 percent to 36.0 percent. So if the Clinton campaign is indeed going to hang its hat on the results out of North Carolina, it's going to have to begin to change the dynamics in the state -- and fast.

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Hillary's Outstanding TV Ads

Hillary Clinton went on the television airwaves today in North Carolina with her first commercial, and it's creative. In the ad, called "NC Ask Me," Hillary states right off the bat:

"If you're looking for a typical political commercial, switch the channel."

Now that's what I call the straight talk express!

Hillary uses the ad to solicit questions from North Carolina citizens:

"...I want to hear from you...Go to NCAskMe.com and I'll be getting back to you here on TV to answer your questions and offer solutions...

Love that!  It gets people engaged, they go to her website, they eagerly await to hear the next commercial.  

Very smart.

See for yourself:

Now I know I'm biased, but are Hillary's ads better than ever?

In case you missed it, check out this new 3 AM ad in Pennsylvania called "Ringer" about the economy:

You know what to do to keep those ads coming.

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Huge Registration Numbers Out of North Carolina, Too

We're seeing big voter registration figures coming out of Pennsylvania and Connecticut -- and now North Carolina:

Hot off the presses: New numbers from the North Carolina Board of Elections show that, since the first of the year, more than 165,000 new voters have registered to participate in advance of the state's May 6 primary.

That puts the total of new registered voters in the state since January 2007 at almost 522,000. For comparison's sake, that's more than TWICE the amount of new voters registered during the same time period before the 2004 election.

Forty-five percent of the new voters since January are registered as Democrats, with about 30% unaffiliated and 25% Republican. About a third are under 24 years old.

Gary Bartlett, the director of the Board of Elections, says that the number of new registrants is "through the roof" and "absolutely, totally unprecedented."

Doing some back of the napkin math based on the rough numbers above, it looks like the Democrats have netted an increase of about 105,000 new voters (that is 105,000 more new voters than the Republicans). Looking through the most recent registration figures out of North Carolina, it looks like the Democrats' new voters make up more than one-sixth of their overall advantage over the GOP in the State. Once again, it sure looks like there are some serious upsides to this protracted primary election cycle...

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Myth Busters by Daou w/Bonus Video

Please excuse me in advance for cutting and pasting this blog from Hillary Clinton's Internet Director Peter Daou but he brilliantly summarizes what many of us have been trying to shout from the rooftops for weeks.

So here is Peter Daou shattering the myths propulgated by pundits, talk show hosts, surrogates, and bloggers:  

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday - and wins them by double digits

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th - and she wins Ohio by double digits

THE PUNDITS
Despite Hillary Clinton's big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to
secure the nomination and either candidate can win

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY  
The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don't count; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama's narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over
THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate  
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key
state of PA, where she is running strong

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton's campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton's supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls

THE PUNDITS
There is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race
THE REALITY
Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the
race as Hillary Clinton

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the "kitchen sink" at Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day

THE PUNDITS
For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to "overturn the will of the
people"
THE REALITY
The will of the people is split and both candidates need - and are making their case to -
super delegates

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton

THE PUNDITS
Florida and Michigan's voters won't be heard and their delegates won't be seated all
because of complicated procedural roadblocks
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he'll lose his small advantage if they count

THE PUNDITS
Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and
tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard - and fair - to win with the help of millions of dedicated supporters

http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/

By the way, here is John Murtha explaining why he supports Hillary Clinton, in case you missed it...

Please help make Hillary our next CiC, DONATE HERE:


         

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