North Carolina Results Thread

From CNN.com:

√ Barack Obama: 890,700 votes (56 percent)
Hillary Clinton: 657,943 votes (42 percent)

99% precincts reporting at 1:21 AM Eastern

Update [2008-5-6 23:7:44 by Todd Beeton]:With 91% of precincts reporting, Barack Obama has already made up the 210,000 votes Hillary Clinton gained in Pennsylvania.

Update [2008-5-6 23:38:30 by Todd Beeton]:With 98% reporting, he's blasted past her PA gains.

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Obama North Carolina Speech Thread

Consider this a thread on Barack Obama's speech following his North Carolina primary victory from Raleigh.

Update [2008-5-6 21:37:47 by Todd Beeton]:Again, Obama is taking on the unpatriotic BS head on.

I love this country too much to see it divided and distracted at this critical moment in history. I believe in our ability to perfect this nation because it's the only reason I'm standing here today. I know the promise of America because I've lived it...it is the light of opportunity that led my father across an ocean, it's the founding ideals that the flag draped over my father's coffin stand for. It's life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness. In this country justice can be won against the greatest odds...and when we are told that we can not bring about the change that we seek, we answer in one voice: Yes we can!

Nice.

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CNN, NBC News Project Obama Win in North Carolina

Just in; results to come... ABC News calls it a rout.

Update [2008-5-6 19:48:32 by Todd Beeton]:From CNN's NC exit polls, Obama over-performed among black voters, winning them 91-6, and Hillary Clinton underpeformed among white voters, winning them by a margin of 59-36. And remarkably there really was not much of a gender gap. Barack Obama won men 57-39 and he won women 54-42. A friend tells me that if these exit polls hold up it will translate to a 13 or so point win for Obama.

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Early Polling News From North Carolina

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane, Bilerico Project& My Left Wing


click to enlarge

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North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thread

Interesting that while nationally Obama seems to have reversed Clinton's recent surge, all three new North Carolina polls show Clinton still ticking up a bit.

CandidateInsider Advantage 5/4 (5/1)Zogby 5/3-4 (5/2-3)PPP  5/3-4 (4/26-27)RCP 7-poll Ave.
Obama48 (49)48 (48)53 (51)49.6
Clinton45 (44)40 (39)43 (39)42.6

The key factor here is the racial polarization of the race. Insider Avantage has Obama winning blacks 79-18 while Clinton wins whites 59-33. According to Matt Towery, if Clinton is able to reach 60% of the white vote, she could "pull off a victory" but IA has the poll much tighter than the others. Alternatively, PPP is showing the racial divide to be even more stark.

We estimate that 35% of the primary electorate will be black, and with Obama winning those voters at a rate of 84-11, Clinton's 60-34 advantage with white voters is only enough to pull his lead down to ten.

PPP believes the advantage Barack Obama has had among black voters turning out in force to vote early will make it impossible for Clinton to catch him.

Zogby too has African-American turnout at 35% but has Obama winning among them 77-10 and Clinton winning among white voters by 55-34, thus accounting for a slightly tighter race.

The undecided vote is fairly consistent among all polls, coming in at 7% or 8%. A big question is who exactly the undecided voters are and will they break for Obama as they have in states demographically similar to North Carolina, or will they break for Clinton as they have among voting groups pre-disposed to voting for her.

How do you think it will go?

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