Rasmussen Reports released two new polls today, one out of Pennsylvania and one from New Mexico, that basically tell us what we already knew: Obama is up where we expect him to be.
In Pennsylvania, Obama's lead is not enormous, but it is growing.
|Candidate||June 22||May 21||April 24||Pollster|
It's unclear whether a unity bounce effect was at play here. Obama's support among Democrats in this Clinton country state rose 6 points since Hillary Clinton dropped out, although it's still relatively low, at 69% of Dems. This tells me Obama has a lot of room to grow in Pennsylvania, especially once Hillary Clinton begins campaigning with him this week. McCain on the other hand has 77% of Pennsylvania Republicans but is losing because of an 11 point deficit among independent voters. Interestingly, Obama's gains came principally among men; whereas last month they were tied, this month Obama leads by 8. Just because Barack's gains weren't among women doesn't mean they weren't a function of Hillary's endorsement of him, of course. If the bulk of this shift toward Barack was among former Hillary Clinton supporters who are just now embracing Barack, hopefully we can expect an exodus of her female supporters to follow in the coming months.
As Eric Kleefeld points out, Barack seems to have already convinced Hillary's Pennsylvania working class base he's their man (yet another myth to debunnk):
And despite the constant message in the primaries that Obama wouldn't be able to win "beer track" voters, the pollster's analysis has this: "Obama has a sizable lead among those voters earning less than $40,000 a year, with McCain well ahead among those who earn more than that annually."
Looking at the cross-tabs, Barack's said sizable lead amounts to 49%-34% among those making less than $20k a year and 51%-39% among those making $20-40k a year.
In New Mexico, while Obama's lead is larger, it actually ticked down 1 point since last month.
|Candidate||June 18||May 14||April 8||Pollster|
As you can see, there was definitely no unity bounce here. In fact, 4% jumped to the undecided category since May's poll, which is puzzling and something to look out for in next month's poll. But overall, there's really no cause for alarm as things stayed pretty much the same otherwise.
He has an eleven-point lead among women, and just a seven-point lead among men. Those numbers have shown little change since last month.
Obama's support comes from 72% of Democrats in New Mexico and 15% of Republicans. McCain is backed by 76% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. When it comes to unaffiliated voters, Obama has a 41% to 34% advantage. The results in that demographic are nearly identical to last month's numbers.
Some excellent numbers for Obama in New Mexico (those pesky Hispanic voters really do have a problem with him, don't they!) I agree with FBIHop, it's well past time that CNN took New Mexico out of McCain's column (they claim it leans McCain) on their electoral vote map.
Update [2008-6-23 20:32:37 by Todd Beeton]:And as if that wasn't enough good news out of New Mexico, check out this stellar headline and lede from Rasmussen's poll of the NM senate race:
New Mexico Senate: Democrat Udall's Lead Jumps After GOP Primary
Democratic Congressman Tom Udall has nearly doubled his lead over Republican Steve Pearce in New Mexico's U.S. Senate race. Udall now leads 58% to 30%...