Last Day tightening polls in AZ & CT

I'm heading out to see Bill Clinton rally with Mark Warner for Jim Webb's election to the US Senate in Virginia, and will post more on it later. Here's a new slate of polls out on all the Gov and Senate races by polimetrix(pdf).

The headline grabber for Dems is that Pederson and Lamont are both within 4 percent:

ArizonaPederson            46
Kyl                 50ConnecticutLieberman           48
Lamont              44
Schlesinger          9

The Virginia and Missouri races, where the election will likely come down to in the Senate, are all tied up at 50-50 a piece. Everything else on the Senate sides looks according to the current norm in other polls. Pederson was closing in a poll yesterday as well, and SUSA yesterday showed Lieberman falling across the finish line, so maybe?

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The devolvement of Joe Lieberman

So Joe Lieberman's on-the-ground 'troops'--nicknamed Lieberkidz--surrounded a bus containing Ned Lamont and, for a time, refused to let anyone depart the bus.


   <"...They started out at the street, holding signs and chanting, a clot of 25 to 30 thick-necked Young Republican types.  Then they moved up the driveway to the Senior Center and blocked the bus. They formed a noisy, chanting mob around the bus door and blocked anyone from getting out.  Eventually Ned and some others managed to push out through the crowd, but the noise only increased and the LieberYouth pressed tighter, chanting so that the news cameras and microphones couldn't pick up a word Ned was saying. It was an ugly and intense little scene. The few seniors who had come outside were rushed back in by the Percival Smith staff. I did manage to ask one bright-eyed little senior lady what she thought of all this, but she just pointed at her temple and twirled her finger in the universal sign for "crazy" and then she was whisked away by a staffer...">

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Cell Phones and Predictions

Not everyone agrees with MyDD's collective confidence about the wave this election.  Erick Erickson, with whom I spent election night in 2004, looked at the generic polls and now thinks that the"tidal wave against the GOP appears to have been more a fart in the bathtub and this now is the turn of the tide." He has good connections, so this probably mirrors a lot of Republican operative hopes.  There's a lot of credibility on the line there.

Anyway, one thing that jumped out at me at the latest SUSA poll for the Lieberman-Lamont race was the strange youth vote number.  Tim noticed it too - young people are going for Joe by 54-29.  This is in contrast to him actually being down by 48-45 a few weeks ago in the same survey; also the primary exit polls showed Lamont beating Lieberman 63-36 among 18-29 year olds, by far his strongest voting block.

What's going on?  I remember lots of freaking out in 2004 about cell phones and their effect on polling.  That doesn't seem to be the problem.

The cellphone-only crowd is not yet large enough and their views not different enough to affect the accuracy of traditional political polling, a new study suggests. Not yet, anyway.

The report, based on polling by the Pew Research Center and The Associated Press, reaffirmed that those with only a cellphone tend to be younger, less affluent, more likely to be male and more likely to be minorities.

But when the responses to a series of political questions from those with only cellphones were blended in with the rest of those reached on traditional landlines, results were not affected. Very small differences in the results virtually disappear when the cellphone sample is blended together, and weighted to match the demographics of the national population.

This is consistent with an AP-Pew poll done earlier this year and other surveys.

Anyway, I guess it's not cell phones.  Still, I'm keeping an eye on youth turnout.  If the trends from 2004 and 2005 continue, I don't want to hear that young people don't vote.  And the question of where the progressive majority is coming from will have strong hints of an answer.

Update: Lieberman is still up by 12 in today's Q-Poll.

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Et Tu, Pelosi?

There are new polls coming out today and tomorrow.  I don't expect movement, but I also don't believe the polls because there is no precedent for a three-way race where the effective third party candidate is also a major party candidate.  Oh wait, as I was writing this the Survey USA poll came out, and it shows no movement although it does show Joe leading in the youth vote 55-29.  That is totally crazy.

Anyway, we'll see in a few days what happens.  What is key to understanding this race, and American politics, is how much power the institutional establishment can bring to bear against someone who truly challenges the system.  It's not just the Republicans who want Joe in the Senate.  It's Bill Clinton, who lied about his support of Ned.  It's Chuck Schumer, who tried to keep Ned from running, and Harry Reid, who's negotiating with Joe on seniority.  It's Fred Wurtheimer, who doesn't care about street money buying votes but wants to regulate blogs.  It's a very big list.

And the latest?  Well, Nancy Pelosi is yet another DC Democrat who stabbed Lamont in the back.  Here's Joe, marching with Republican Congressional candidate Nancy Johnson locked in a tight race with Chris Murphy.

-- Sen. Joe Lieberman, leading in statewide polls in his independent re-election campaign, marched in a Veterans Day parade Sunday alongside a Republican congresswoman whom Democrats are attempting to sweep from office.

Rival Ned Lamont followed behind Lieberman and 12-term Rep. Nancy Johnson, who is locked in a bitter election battle with Democrat Chris Murphy. Democrats have targeted Johnson's seat and must gain 15 in Tuesday's election to regain control of the House.

And what does Pelosi say?

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who was in Connecticut on Sunday to campaign for Murphy and fellow Democrats Joe Courtney and Diane Farrell, said she wouldn't criticize Lieberman.

"We all honor our veterans," Pelsoi said. "I have no criticism of Joe Lieberman marching with Nancy Johnson."

At least they spelled her name wrong.  Seriously, this is majorly fucked up.  Almost no institutional DC groups are backing Ned Lamont, even though many of them have nominally endorsed him.  Nancy Pelosi, the head of the Congressional wing of the party, won't give Lamont the kind of backup she'd give to every other Democrat in the country, even against someone who has combined his GOTV machine with Republican Congressional candidates running against the people she's stumping for.

This matters.  Lieberman has been able to call for a withdrawal of troops because almost no Democrats will call him on it.  He's able to buy votes because only one good government group was willing to say anything.  He's able to pretend to environmentalism because the League of Conservation Voters endorsed him even as he voted for the Energy Bill, and he gets the endorsement of the Human Rights Campaign and gay bashers in the same cycle.  The head of the Republican Party is constantly praising him, the DC Democrats are quiet or quietly helpful to Joe.

There is no way to crack someone's perception of integrity if all the organs of trust are desperately corrupted and working to sustain it.  Lieberman is now an antiwar bring the troops home leftie gay lover to Democrats, and a knuckle-dragging hawkish bigoted goon to Republicans.  


UPDATE: The Hotline blog has more:

The Lieberman campaign is feeling both feisty and confident. They can start checking names off their list of Democrats who turned on the three term incumbent after his August primary defeat.

The Lieberman people took delight early last week in telling a story of John Kerry’s rebuff by Senate Democratic leaders when he lobbied them to lend some aid to Democrat aristocrat Ned Lamont’s flagging campaign.


On Friday, the Lieberman campaign took its delight to the street when it chased the Lamonts and their entourage away from a Hartford campaign stop on the obligatory bus tour. Noting Lamont’s “pimped out” gold bus from Arkansas, the Lieberman blog poked fun at Lamont’s skedaddle back onto the bus after a brief encounter with swarming Lieberman supporters. “F@#$-you” and “you, too” were directed by young ladies to Lamont and suburban matron Lt. Governor candidate Mary Glassman. The Lamont campaign called them “wild-eyed thugs.”

After Tuesday, the retribution tour expects to move to the tony precincts of Capitol Hill. They’ll spend December checking their list more than twice.

Oh that delightful Senate leadership. Dick Durbin, Harry Reid, and Chuck Schumer are just awesome, aren't they?

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Connecticut Senate Race and the Progressive/Netroots Movement

Hey, I have been getting a little depressed about the situation in Connecticut lately, and I decided to look back in the my diaries to see if I could find something to cheer me up. Several weeks ago I wrote this diary, and I find it scarily relevent even today. Thus, I have decided to repost it, unedited, and I'd like to know if it helps any of you out, as it has helped me:

Over the last few days I have seen a very interesting change in the attitude amongst the Netroots. Several days ago, there was a post about the Connecticut Senate Race, and in the comment section everyone was supportive of Ned. Everyone was optimistic that he was going to win. If anyone doubted they were immediately called a troll.

But, lately, the opposite seems to be happening. Except for a few like psifighter, most commenters seem to be much less enusiastic about the race. Almost all comments are negative, and almost no one gets labeled a troll or even countered anymore. Even I have mentioned some distress over it and gotten into a slight tussle with Matt (sorry for that by the way, I shouldn't have exaggerated like that). The truth is, I like many others have become a bit disillusioned with the campaign, with the endless polls showing Lamont either falling (Rasmussen) or stagnant (SUSA). Even the better ones (UConn) have him outside of the MOE. But, today, I have made a revelation, and I would like to ask you to read it below the fold.

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