Does anybody else mind giving up a House seat?

I believe that David Paterson made a huge mistake in picking Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate.  One reason is the fact that she is far too Conseravtive for New York as a whole(anti-gun control, against partial-birth abortion, anti-immigrant).  The main reason is that we would almost surely lose NY-20 to a Republican in the special election.  

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House rankings: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York

In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois's 14th district, Louisiana's 6th district, Mississippi's 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

These rankings are posted on Campaign Diaries.

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NY-20: Sandy Treadwell Hearts Grover Norquist

(Cross-Posted at Upstate Blue)

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Fundraising for Freshman Democrats: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

The Hill published an article highlighting some of the fundraising efforts of freshmen Democrats in the House.  Apparently, many are doing quite well.  David Loebsack (IA-02) has raised about $71,000.  Kirsten Gillebrand (NY-20) has raised $65,000 in PAC money alone.  Earl Perlmutter (CO-07) has raised $79,000.  Charlie Wilson (OH-06) has raised $34,000.  Paul Hodes has raised $35,000.  Jason Altmire (PA-04) and Patrick Murphy (PA-08) have both raised $50,000 in PAC money alone.  Zack Space (OH-18) and Steven Kagen (WI-08) have both raised $35,000 in PAC money.

As far as simple financial numbers go, this is good news.  All of these candidates are vulnerable to some degree.  So, if all of these House members are already off to good starts, they may be able to force out potentially strong challenges early on.

But the article also has some worrying relevations.  For one thing, Nancy Boyda (KS-02) has raised only $13,000.  Considering the presidential vote in her district (Bush won it by 20 points), Boyda is probably one of our top five most vulnerable Democrats.  Plus, she will not have Sebelius' coattails helping her and will instead have to contend with the Republican tide at the top of the ticket from the eventual Republican nominee and Senator Pat Roberts. Finally, she will possibly face a rematch against Jim Ryun. More over the flip...

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John Edwards calls New Yorkers for Arcuri, Massa, Gillibrand

John Edwards is helping elect D-WFP Congressional candidates Mike Arcuri, Eric Massa and Kirsten Gillibrand. John and the WFP have recorded robocalls that are going out to voters in NY-24, NY-29 and NY-20. With all the coverage of negative robocalls, I wanted to share these positive calls. Listen to all three:

This is part of the Working Families Party's effort to Take Back Congress.  Check out the rest of the Working Families Party's Take Back Congress campaign material.  And then check out the Working Families Party's 2006 endorsements.

New Yorkers can vote for D-WF candidates on the WFP's ballot line, Row E.  Your vote still counts to elect the candidate you vote for, and you can vote your values.

Good luck tomorrow everyone!

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