by Jonathan Singer, Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 10:31:58 AM EDT
Chris Cillizza has the details.
Venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) will win the special election in New York's 20th district by 210 votes after all outstanding absentee and military ballots are counted, according to projections made by Democratic Party officials and obtained by the Fix.
The projections -- based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night -- show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco's only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.
The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead -- 77,344 to 77,279.
Don't be surprised to see the Republicans fight tooth and nail in the hopes of wiggling their way on top of this election, much the same as they have for several months in Minnesota. Indeed, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see the GOP drag this process out even in the absence of evidence that they have a real shot at victory (again, as has been the case in Minnesota). But right now, with the initial tally favoring Democrat Scott Murphy and the projections not looking too dissimilar, the numbers suggest that there's a good chance that New York's 20th congressional district will stay in Democratic hands.