That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the <a href="http://wiki.opencongress.org/wiki/Project:RaceTracker">2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress</a> for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, Swing State Project and Open Left)
A finish line could be in sight in the race for the 20th Congressional District. With the numbers not looking good for Republican Jim Tedisco, sources tell Capital News 9 that Tedisco could concede to Democrat Scott Murphy as soon as Friday afternoon.
There are less than 1,000 paper ballots unopened, and Democrat Scott Murphy is leading with nearly 400 votes.
County election board workers were in Albany Thursday morning, reviewing a group of 200 votes here. Official numbers will be reported later. On Saturday, 600 ballots were counted in Saratoga County. Those numbers have not been reported yet. All of this leaves about 800 ballots to be opened.
Sounds like the only way Tedisco does not concede tomorrow is if the ballots shift toward him in a really dramatic way in the next 15 hours or so. Doubtful.
The latest numbers out of NY-20 show Democrat Scott Murphy's lead growing steadily. Tedisco was slightly up after election night, but as precincts corrected their counts and absentee ballots have come in, Murphy took the lead on April 10 and has never lost it. Now, after the latest tally of absentee ballots, Murphy is up by 401 votes, a net gain of 6 since yesterday.
Some more absentee ballots were counted in the Murphy strongholds of Columbia, Essex, Warren and Washington Counties -- plus the Tedisco stronghold of Saratoga County. And while Tedisco did net 38 votes from the newest ballots in Saratoga, it was more than outstripped by the other places.
Even before this latest development two former chairs of the NRCC have publicly given up on Tedisco. First Tom Davis:
..."we've lost the New York special election. It's gone."
"For the Democrats, bragging rights are what they are and they get momentum for winning a very tough seat for them," Reynolds said. "And the Republicans will try to minimize it, and when all is said and done, the special will have little or no impact for what will happen in 2010." [...]
"I would say to Jim Tedisco, `You came so close and 2010 is a general election and would be different. If you were up to this race, and want to run, you have earned the right to be a candidate for the party's nomination," Reynolds said.
This latest development should bring more calls for Tedisco to give it up but certainly the Republican is showing no signs of doing so. In fact, Tedisco seems prepared to pull a full Coleman:
Even so, the Tedisco campaign had been sending signals last week that they planned to take legal action to determine the legality of a number of absentee ballots challenged on residency grounds, where there were questions of whether voters were permanent residents of the district.
The judge has asked attorneys for both candidates to prepare briefs on the issue, and an official in the Tedisco campaign told The Washington Times on Friday that "it could be a significant numbers of voters."
Update [2009-4-23 18:22:36 by Todd Beeton]:Speaking of the full Coleman, check out who else got swept up in Tedisco's frivolous ballot challenges: Sam Seder.
Sam posted a message on Twitter yesterday: "NY20th race Tedisco challenged my absentee ballot. 4 days before the election I was jury foreman for a trial in NY20th. Challenge Fail." [...]
Sam was none too impressed when I told him that the Tedisco campaign alleged that he wasn't a resident of the district. "Jerks," he said. "I mean, I could tell you I've attended far more Livingston town meetings than Jim Tedisco has."
He added: "I just think it's ironic that this guy doesn't live in the 20th, and he's challenging my residency."
Those who follow NY-20 must have seen the latest headlines: Scott Murphy has increased his lead to 365 votes as Warren County counted some of the challenged ballots, making it even more difficult to figure out how in the world Tedisco could pull off a comeback.
The second recent development: Yesterday, Judge Brands overturned his own ruling from last week sided with Tedisco, ruling that the GOP was allowed to challenge ballots on a case-by-case basis. (Many of the GOP's challenges concern voters who have a second residence outside of the district.)