A look at the Senate races

So with eight months to go, I figure it's time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent's party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know.  That's because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don't follow the national races like we do.  Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.

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New Mexico: Week In Review (March 1 Edition)

Not quite as big a news roundup as last week. The start of the week was a bit slow, but the pace picked up near the end of the week.  Nothing as big as last week which featured the end of operations at the Albuquerque Tribune (still weird to walk by a newspaper machine at 3:00 in the afternoon and see a Journal staring out at you), but still some news happened.


There were two Presidential match-up polls released this week for the state of New Mexico, and both showed Senator Barack Obama did better than Senator Hillary Clinton against Senator John McCain.  But both polls painted drastically different general election pictures.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

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More and Better Udalls: Outside Magazine Profiles the Family

We have two great candidates running for Senate in the Mountain West.  The two are cousins from a great Democratic political family -- the Udalls.  Tom Udall and Mark Udall are both looking like great chances to turn two red Senate seats blue.  And these aren't Bush Dog Dems.

As I mentioned, they are from a great political family, the Udalls.  Mark (the Colorado Udall) is the sun of famed Representative Mo Udall. Mo Udall was an Arizona Congressman from 1961 to 1991.  He served from when John F Kennedy was in office to just before Bill Clinton replaced the first President George Bush.  And he did great work during his tenure on many issues -- most notably the environment.

More on the Udall family and the feature on them in Outside magazine below the fold.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP and Daily Kos.

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Who's Running in New Mexico: Post Filing Deadline Edition

We interrupt your arguing about the Presidential primaries to tell you about some other important primary races.

Yesterday was the filing deadline in New Mexico. So today, we definitively know who is running for the Senate, First Congressional District, Second Congressional District and Third Congressional District seats on for both the Democratic and Republican nominations.  

And every single seat has at least one competitive primary for a very simple reason: All three House seats in New Mexico and a Senate seat are all open seats without an incumbent running.  Crazy times in New Mexico.

So  the final, definitive edition of Who's Running in New Mexico for 2008, and a little bit of analysis, is below the fold:

A version of this post appears at New Mexico FBIHOP

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Dems in Top Six Senate Races Outraise GOPers in Q4

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As of the end of the year, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had about $16 million more in the bank than the National Republican Senatorial Committee, when debts and obligations are taken into account. While this might not be sufficient to ensure that the Democrats pick up seats in 2008, even in combination with the general sentiments in the country favoring the party, the fact that the Democratic candidates in the top-6 most competitive races are outraising their GOP opponents.

Democratic Senate candidates continued to trump their Republican counterparts in many key races around the country in the fourth quarter.

Financial reports show Democrats topped Republicans by hundreds of thousands of dollars in races in Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia.

GOP incumbents held fast to money edges in other top races in Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas.

Take a look through the numbers:

  • Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner raised $2.9 million to Republican Jim Gilmore's mere $350,000.
  • New Mexico: Democrat Tom Udall (with help from the netroots) brought in $1 million -- more than both of his two Republican competitors combined, with Heather Wilson taking $520,000 and Steve Pearce bringing in $430,000.
  • Colorado: Mark Udall, the presumptive Democratic nominee and cousin of Tom, nearly doubled the fundraising of his GOP competitor Bob Schaffer, $1.1 million to $670,000.
  • New Hampshire: In the rematch race between freshman Republican John Sununu and Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, the latter outraised the former $1.2 million to $920,000.
  • Minnesota: Democrat Al Franken's nearly $2 million haul bested that of incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman's $1.7 million.
  • Louisiana: Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, the only Democratic incumbent theoretically vulnerable this cycle, doubled the fundraising effort of her GOP challenger John Kennedy, $1 million to $500,000. This is a particular embarrassment for the Republicans given that Kennedy is supposed to be their top challenger and is the focus of the party's efforts at putting the Democrats on defense in at least one Senate race.

We're not there yet. But it's sure looking like the Democrats have a very good shot at 56 seats -- or more (don't forget Mississippi, where former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove has a great shot at winning in either a special election or general election this year) -- by the end of this cycle.

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