Mark Ruffalo's Call to Action Nov.21st at the DRBC

Please check out our founder, Mark Ruffalo's new video calling people to say NO to FRACKING at the DRBC hearing on Nov.21st in Trenton, NJ. 

http://j.mp/uPa3jE

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Evidence that NJ was not a referendum on Obama/Dems

I thought that I would just go ahead and aggregate the evidence that what happened in NJ last night was more of a referendum on Corzine then on President Obama or the Democratic Party as a whole.

Note: Most of these were lifted from this website or fivethirtyeight.com. I know I should link to the sources more, and I'll try to get around to it.

Ok, evidence that NJ was a problem with Corzine instead of Obama:

1) Corzine had a 37% approval rating going into the election. Nobody has been able to find even a single instance of a sitting Governor winning reelection with an approval rating that low

2) Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption). -Silver

3) Obama approval was actually pretty strong in New Jersey, at 57 percent (the same % Obama won NJ by)-CNN

4) 27 percent of those who approved of Obama nevertheless voted for someone other than Corzine

5) the Democrats look like they'll lose just one seat in the state legislature in Trenton -Silver

6) Corzine went super-negative, including ads attacking his opponent's weight

7) Chris Cristie's ads mostly didn't even mention that he was a Republican, and most of his ads used the Democrat's blue background -Silver

8) the exit polls had 60 percent saying that Barack Obama played no role in their gubernatorial vote, 19 percent saying that their vote was one in support of the President, and 20 percent saying that their vote was in opposition to President Obama. -Mydd

9) The Dems did ok in some other areas, such as going 2/2 in Congressional elections (although they had a bad night in VA)

10) Corzine's poll numbers didn't change off of their trend lines when Obama stumped for him - meaning that Corzine was the issue, not Obama

11) Gubernatorial races are extremely poor yardsticks for other elections, with almost zero correlation -Silver

12) NJ has gone for a Governor in the party opposite of the President's party for decades, including when Reagan and Clinton were very popular and including 2 months after 9/11 when Bush had 90% approval ratings.

There's more...

2010 and 2012 Implications

Harwood has an post up saying "Democrats Must Attack to Win in 2010" and looks at the NJ and VA races as a template for 2012. I pretty much concur with this opinion. In NJ, Corzine is turning things around, perhaps thanks to a 3rd candidate in the race. In a two-person race, it doesn't usually hurt having a third candidate, unless it turns into a situation where the third candidate has a serious chance at winning. Then, as the VA primary earlier this year showed, things can turnover quickly.

In Virginia, things are not hopeless, but its pretty close to it. Deeds comes across as someone not to take too serious with his attacks on McDonnell. He plays "nice guy" well but comes off as insincere with his attacks. Ben Tribbett has all but pronounced Deeds dead in his look at the statewide ticket:

His campaign will go down in history as the turning point for Republicans in Virginia- after a brutal decade of losses- and he has turned Bob McDonnell from a random state Delegate into an Attorney General, and now into a Governor- who in a few weeks will immediately shoot into the top ten potential Republican Presidential candidates in 2012 or 2016.

It is still baffling that Deeds wound up with the nomination. Moran was the only candidate who showed he understood that we would be in a battle for the GE, and the only candidate that was able to tear apart McAuliffe. For that preview of what he would have done to McDonnell, he was labeled as "too negative" and NoVA progressives opted for the "nice guy" conservative Democrat instead. The Deeds apologists will tell you that anyone would have been down like this, but that's just nonsense.

Unless things change dramatically in the next three weeks in Virginia, Republicans will sweep the statewide contests, pick up Delegate seats, and be in total control of the '10 VA redistricting effort (Dems hold the Senate so will have a share of power). More, Deeds Is Way Off the Mark.

There's more...

NJ-03 Goes to Adler. Finally.

After looking like CNN butchered the call for Adler last night (with Myers leading with 93% counted and CNN retracting later), it looks like the rest of the precincts came in.

AP reporting 100% in now:

John Adler (D) 156,114 - 51.6%
Chris Myers (R) 146,169 - 48.4%

Pretty impressive last 7% .. by my count Myers only got 2K of it and Adler pulled in 14K. Talk about cutting it close!

There's more...

Clinton to pick up 2 more NJ superdelegates?

Hillary Clinton is slated to pick up two additional unpledged add-on delegates when the Democratic State Committee meets later this week to choose add-on and alternate delegates. Sources say that former Governors Brendan Byrne and Jim Florio will be chosen as the two add-on superdelegates. According to a Clinton press release, both endorsed Hillary Clinton last year. Clinton defeated Obama in the New Jersey primary by 54%-44%.

Cross-posted from Blue Jersey

There's more...

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