The Johnson County, Missouri Democratic Club meets monthly on Thursday evenings in downtown Warrensburg. The membership of the club includes Democratic Party activists and a significant number of the members of the Johnson County Democratic Central Committee. A motion addressing health care reform, and specifically, Senator Claire McCaskill's (D) recent statement, in the aftermath of the Massachusetts special senate election was offered under new business by a member of the club and central committee.
Chris Cillizza says that Missouri isn't one of the Democrats' two best pickup opportunities in the Senate in 2010 and, further, that the likelihood that it will flip relative to other Senate contests is going down. That's news to actual voters in Missouri, who continue to favor the Democrats to take over this seat from the Republicans next fall.
Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt remain locked in a tight race to become the next U.S. senator from Missouri.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Carnahan attracts 46% of the vote while Blunt earns 44%. In September, both candidates were at 46%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
These numbers for comport with the general trend from the race, which also shows Democrat Robin Carnahan leading Republican Roy Blunt by 2 percentage points. Indeed, a look through all of the polling on the race shows that Blunt has not led in a single public poll pitting him against Carnahan. Ever. But of course that must mean that this Missouri Senate seat is becoming less likely to flip relative to the other seats up in 2010, right?
When PPP polled the Missouri Senate race in January Robin Carnahan led by one point. Fast forward ten months and nothing has changed. Carnahan leads Roy Blunt 43-42.
It's a good sign for Carnahan that her status hasn't worsened as things have gone sour in general for the Democratic Party over the course of 2009. That's a product of Carnahan and Blunt being more well known than your typical open seat candidates, particularly because of their family names, and probably also due to Blunt's being symbolic of a Congress that voters don't care for. You're definitely better off being a Jefferson City politician in 2010 than a Washington one.
As you can see, the numbers from PPP fit in quite well with the Pollster.com trend estimate on the race, which has shown Democrat Robin Carnahan leading -- narrowly, but consistently -- for the entire race.
The biggest factor in this race, at least at present, appears not to be the national environment (indeed, despite the supposedly bad environment for the Democrats, the presumptive Democratic nominee Carnahan continues to lead) but rather the unpopularity of the likely GOP nominee, Roy Blunt. At present, Blunt, the onetime House Majority Leader, has a net negative favorability rating, with just 30 percent viewing him positively and 38 percent viewing him negatively. (Carnahan's numbers are net positive, with 40 percent rating her favorably and 36 percent rating her unfavorably.) As long as Blunt's numbers remain this tepid, it's hard to see how he wins this race (even as it will assuredly be close, as are many contested races in the state).
In the classic 1947 movie by the same name, a reporter decides to pass himself off as Jewish in order to 'get the story' on anti-Semitism in post-war America. In short order he comes to realize that labels do matter.
Our recent poll shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan with an early advantage over Congressman Roy Blunt in the 2010 campaign for Senate. Carnahan begins better known, more popular, and with an early (albeit small) lead in the horserace. Carnahan also benefits from a large gender gap, while Blunt is less popular with women and leads with men.
Sounds like great news for the GOP!
At present, Carnahan leads by a 48 percent to 45 percent margin -- not a wide lead, but largely in line with her average 3.2 percentage point advantage over Blunt across five surveys this year. It's worth noting, too, that Carnahan's lead appears to be deep if not wide, with the Democrat leading 34 percent to 26 percent among strong supporters.
Carnahan is also significantly more popular than Blunt. While Carnahan maintains a strongly positive image among Missouri voters -- with 51 percent viewing her favorably (including 22 percent viewing her very favorably) and just 28 percent viewing her unfavorably -- Missourians don't particularly like Blunt, who sports at 41 percent favorable/33 percent unfavorable spread, with just 11 percent viewing him very favorably.
But First Read tells us that this isn't one of the four most likely Senate seats to flip in 2010...