Gallup--C 47, O 42, Huckabee moves up

The latest Gallup tracking shows Hillary improving slightly, as Obama levels off.  I believe this has something to do with Hillary's continuing popularity with the Democratic base, and I think Obama's appeal is rather limited, as well as less committed.

On the GOP side, McCain dropped 4% to 41%, while Huckabee is up 4%, to 21%.  That puts him 3% behind Romney.  Perhaps Huck can snatch Missouri or Georgia from McCain (wishful thinking).

I think Hillary is going to do better than expected, and I think her delegate lead will be around 150, up from my previopus prediction of 75-80.  Any thoughts?

There's more...'s Live Blog Of Republican Debate In California (January 30, 2008)

[Re-published from  This liveblog on MyDD will be updated periodically.  For the latest please visit the active liveblog at]
Tonight is the CNNLos AngelesPolitico Republican Debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California.  It will begin at 8pm est and will air on CNN and will stream live at both CNN and LA Times' websites.   The participating candidates will be Mitt Romney, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.

7:45: 15 minutes to go.  I'm not sure what the seating locations will be yet, but I do know that McCain's staffer won the first pick for location on the stage and had to call back to headquarters to confirm the location.

7:49: Format: No rules, No time limits.  I guess ever since Wolf Blitzer threw out the rules at the last debate, CNN's just decided to really go wild.

7:58: Lou Dobbs is expressing outrage (not necessarily about anything specific...just outrage...he wants you to know that he's very disturbed).

8:00: And here we go!

8:03: First question, are Americans better off now than they were 8 years ago?  Mitt Romney says that that's a question for President Bush, then launches into defense of his record in Mass.  Anderson Cooper gets indignant and wants an answer, Romney shows viewers that he's able to stand up to Anderson Cooper, but  does offer some discussion of the problems he sees in America now.

8:06: McCain says he'll bring some straight talk, offers a bit of gloom and then talks about making the Bush tax cuts permanent.  McCain states that he believes Americans are better off now than they were 8 years ago, if you look at everything.

8:07: Huckabee plainly states that he doesn't think we're better off now than we were 8 years ago, states that the President isn't solely responsible, so is the congress.  Huckabee says that Americans want someone that is honest and straight with them.  I wonder if he's aware that McCain already has that catchphrase locked up?

8:09: Paul states the problems are caused by foreign policy and we must acknowledge that those policies need to come to an end.

8:09: Paul states the problems are caused by foreign policy and we must acknowledge that those policies need to come to an end.

8:12: Romney takes a shot at McCain's conservatism by noting McCain's NY Times endorsement. McCain reminds Romney that both of Romney's hometown papers, which know him best, endorsed him over Romney. Ouch. McCain continues to talk up his conservatism by mentioning some people that support him.

8:15: Romney defends his record on job growth by noting that some of the negative data on job growth included a time period under the former Governor. He also explains the fee increases under his administration. Romney also touts the work he did on health care and notes that when he left there was a balanced budget and a small surplus.

8:18: Huckabee talks conservatism: lower taxes, streamlining the government, amendment banning gay marriage and a life amendment. Something about these, "who is more conservative" questions seem sort of pointless at some point.

8:21: McCain is asked about Gov. Schwarzenegger's environmental law proposals, which are much different than the steps that the Bush Administration would take towards combating climate change. Given the impending endorsement for Arnold, obviously McCain needs to tread lightly and he does. He responds by noting that he believes in federalism, which has really turned into code for "I won't force you to do something. Please don't shy away from me because of this issue." McCain then gives his oft used version of Pascal's Wager for support of green technology.

8:25: Romney says that he supports states' rights to control and regulate their own emissions. Huckabee then tries to explain why Federalism is good, he then goes on to state that Alexander Hamilton was wrong. Uhhhh....he's having a difficult enough time staying in this race against Romney, McCain and Paul...I'm pretty sure injecting Hamilton into this race would only make it worse for him. *sigh*

8:29: Paul asks for some time to discuss and issue and Cooper denies him. For a debate that wasn't really supposed to have rules, Anderson Cooper seems awfully indignant.

8:33: Talk turns to the economy...excuse me while I relocate to the top floor of my building, preferably a seat near the edge...

8:35: On the economic stimulus: McCain says that we will probably need more. Wow! This is like saying that we need more puppies, fluffier pillows or locations that have Coke Zero available from the fountain.

8:36: McCain is challenged on his initial opposition to Bush's tax cuts on the grounds that they favored the rich too much. McCain states that he was a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution...then proceeds with obfuscation.

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Hillary Wins Florida, and She Wins Big!

Cross-posted at Daily Kos

The Florida primary is now history, and it appears that twice as many Democrats turned out in 2008 than 2004. What did they tell us and how loudly did they say it?  Any analysis tells us that Florida Democrats wants Hillary Clinton to be the nominee, and they said it with persuasiveness loudness.

There's more...'s Presidential Election Podcast (01/27/08)

This podcast looks at (1) results of the South Carolina Democratic Primary; (2) a brief discussion about the media coverage of identity politics and (3) a look ahead to the Florida and February 5th primaries...

[Listen Online]

[Subscribe to's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for next week's podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we'll include it in the podcast).

There's more...'s Live Blog Of MSNBC Republican Debate In Florida (January 24, 2007)

[Re-published from  This liveblog on MyDD will be updated periodically.  For the latest please visit the active liveblog at]

7:30: Time Russert and Brian Williams (henceforth, Bri-Wi) are moderating this debate, and participating are John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul. I'm looking for Huckabee and Giuliani to be particularly aggressive, as a bad finish in Florida could really hurt them.

As an aside, today is the one year anniversary of So for those of you who have stuck around for all 1,053 posts now, I'm sure you realize how damned lucky you are to have us.  But enough about us, you're here to see two old white men question five other old white men about who should replace another old white man. How thrilling!

8:46: MSNBC says the debate is "DO OR DIE." in large all-cap font. Note this, because your children will want to know about the time that four presidential candidates were all killed on stage by a major news company. In other words, don't expect this debate to be a subtle discussion of minor differences.

8:59: Want to skip us as middlemen and watch it yourself but don't have cable? Screw you! Seriously, though, watch here. Brian Williams just told people not to cheer to give people at home misleading impressions. And now he's thanking military people in the audience.

9:01: Lyndon Johnson was at the university when it opened. Hillary Clinton just issued a press release that it takes a president to open a school.

9:02: Candidates are tired; apparently, they requested the debate only goes 90 minutes instead of 2 hours at their request. Tim Russert looks angry.

9:03: Romney is asked about the stimulus plan, and contrasts it with Bush's. Is he disappointed? Romney says it is effective, he just wishes it went further. Romney somehow says that a permanent tax cut is equivalent to a rebate or no taxes on capital gains. Talks about creating jobs and the mortgage crisis. He sounds like he's somewhat competent, but pandering at the same time.

9:05: McCain says he will vote for the plan, and is disappointed it does not make the Bush tax cuts permanent. McCain talks about people having uncertainty in their budget for 2010, and it sounds like a punch line. Segues into pork barrel talk. Talks up the rate cuts by Bernanke and the need for tax cuts. He's completely trying to erase any doubts of him on the tax issue.

9:07: Giuliani says the package is OK, but does not go far enough. Talks up his surrogates introducing legislation (Dreier and Bond). Says there is no difference between temporary and permanent. Says that if America over taxes, spends, sues, or regulates that America loses. Specifically excludes military spending. Said he is worried about London overtaking NYC as financial center.

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