Obama--risky GE candidate?

What a week!  And it's only Wednesday.  We have Obama gaining in the early state polls.  Romney mouths off about Muslims, Huckabee is rising fast in Iowa and South Carolina, and the likely end of Giuliani's candidacy as we know it.

Barack Obama's Intrade number for the nomination is over 20 for the first time in about three months.  Suppose he gets the nomination.  Just how good a candidate would he be?  I think he would struggle.  Here's why:

1.  He's a poor debater--at least he's shown that.  Primary debates are one thing, but the fall election debates will be very important for someone like him.  The bar will be set lower, but he still may be unable to reach it.  

2.  The Republican attack machine hasn't begun to lay a glove
on him yet.  He is vulnerable on immigration, he has hazy stances on Social Security and health care, and he isn't all that clear on what he would do with Iraq.  

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New IOWA poll: Clinton and Obama - 29; Edwards - 23

It is only when we don't get Iowa polls that we realize how much we need them. And today, we are treated with a new poll that has things all tied up, the poll comes from Strategic Vision, a GOP-leaning firm (though that should be all right since these are primary numbers)!

Full poll details and analysis here, at Campaign Diaries.

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SUSA poll: New Mexico tight, Clinton runs ahead of Obama

SUSA released a poll from New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes today. Clinton runs ahead of Obama, and only John McCain manages to win a match-up against her.

Read the full poll and analysis here at Campaign Diaries.

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Hilarious Huckabee Ad

I have to agree with Adam Conner in Breaking Blue that this Mike Huckabee ad may be one of the best political ads ever made. It plays off the whole "Chuck Norris Facts" phenomenon. This "fact" listed by Wikipedia is a particularly good one:

Chuck Norris' tears cure cancer. Too bad Chuck Norris has never cried. Ever.

The ad also plays up Huckabee's sense of humor, which is evident anytime he speaks and is one of the more appealing things about him.

As a sidenote, my northeast Republican father (i.e. pro-choice, pro-environment -- although global warming skeptical, pro-gun control -- although a hunter, pro-gay rights, yet also a war and tax hawk) has expressed enthusiasm for Mike Huckabee, which threw me since he's been talking about voting for Giuliani for president since 2003. What it tells me is that Huckabee has appeal outside of his immediate religious right base and for that reason, we should beware his ascension, as we're seeing in Iowa in particular. Having said that, I do think he'd be fairly easy to beat since several of his views are outside the mainstream, but this guy should not be underestimated.

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Obama and Huckabee Supporters Teaming Up In NH

There is much being made about the controversey on the SEIU New Hampshire endorsement of John Edwards.  Well, I think the biggest controversy ought to be why is a democrat, and repug's supporters teaming up to go against another democrat.

It is amazing to me that nobody sees anythng wrong with this picture.  The last time I checked Huckabee was a repug.

I have read about how Obama says that he was robbed of his endorsement, but the endorsement was never his to begin with.  

Here is what Marc Ambinder from the Atlantic says:

"The state board met on October 23. They reject the PE's recommendation of Edwards. Many of the Republicans on the committee were upset that Mike Huckabee had never been given the opportunity to solicit the endorsement. The reasoning behind his exclusion was that he had not met the SEIU's basic criteria: he had not yet proposed a universal health care plan and had not walked a day in the shoes of an SEIU member."

"In protest, Huckabee supporters banded together and convinced some Obama supporters to join them. Because Edwards's supporters assumed that the PE recommendation would hold, many weren't at the meeting. By 7 to 5, Obama won an informal vote."

Excuse me, but another question I have is why Obama supporters sided with a repug against another democrat.  JRE had nothing to do with how the rules were decided.  Why would a democrat come together with a repug to knife another democrat?  Is this the politics of change that Obama talks about?  This must be what we can expect form Obama if he is president.  Obama will work with repugs to go against the democrats.  

After these shennanigans from the Obama campaign, I am very happy that JRE ended up with the endorsement.  

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/

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