Coakley Hits Brown for Being a Lockstep Republican

A tough new ad from Martha Coakley:

It looks like Coakley has realized that she isn't going to be able to win this race without effort. Democrats in Washington have gotten the message, too, dispatching DNC national press secretary Hari Sevugan, a veteran of the 2008 campaign, to help Coakley make it to the finish line.

At present, the trend estimate on the race gives Coakley about a 10-point lead -- though there is a lot of variance in the numbers from the different surveys looking at the race. If you want to help out the Coakley campaign, too, click here to contribute.

Toss-Up in MA

This has been building for a while now, and now it's tipped. Brown has pulled ahead of Coakley by a narrow margin, 48-47, according to PPP. Check out the massive lopside among Independents toward Brown:

-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.

-In a trend that's going to cause Democrats trouble all year, voters disgusted with both parties are planning to vote for the one out of power.

For those who want to work on behalf of Coakley, OFA has set up a phonebanking tool, to get on the phone tomorrow and make a few calls on behalf of Coakley into MA voters. Im checked in.

The Republicans are fired up, a couple of reports, here, here, here, and here. The covert Republican strategy:

As usual, the centrists and independents are driving this movement. I heard Brown on a few talk shows and he is smart to  not uncork too much rabid conservative issues, keeping with the economic angles and staying away from the hot social issues that got the GOP in hot water in 2006 and 2008.

That's McDonnell. The Republicans have a pretty good playbook in hand, heading into 2010.

[update] The Boston Globe poll shows Coakley up by 15 percent-- quite a disparity. PPP will be going back into the field one more time before next Tuesday's election.



MA-Senate Race - GOP Candidate Invokes JFK in Ad

With three weeks to go before voters in the Bay State vote to elect the successor to Ted Kennedy, the GOP candidate in the race, State Senator Scott Brown, is invoking another Kennedy in his first ad of the campaign. The 30-second spot begins with a black and white video of President John F. Kennedy giving a speech calling for tax cuts and merges into a video of Brown completing Kennedy's speech. The ad, entitled Different People, Same Message is running statewide on both cable and network television.

Watch it:


The ad references the Kennedy tax cuts but it doesn't note that the top marginal tax rate at the time was 91 percent and that Kennedy was proposing a top rate of 70 percent in an era of budget surpluses. It's a far cry from the situation we face today. If anything, irresponsible tax cuts that have only served to enrich the already fabulously wealthy while bleeding the US Treasury dry.

While Congressional Quarterly continues to rate the general election contest Safe Democratic, the GOP is devoting more resources in the hopes of stealing the seat. The Brown campaign is also circulating a fundraising letter written by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney who is now living in La Jolla, California. In the letter, Romney touts Brown's credentials as a fiscal conservative while also noting, in bold, that he would become the critical 41st Republican vote against the health care bill when it comes back to the Senate for final passage.

While Brown ran unopposed in the GOP primary, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley had to fend off challenges from three other candidates to win the Democratic nomination. Coakley did win the primary race handily, posting a nearly 20-point victory over her closest challenger, Congressman Michael Capuano. Here is her Act Blue fundraising link. This is not a seat we can afford to lose even if the possibility of such remains remotely distant.

Massachusetts Senate Primaries

In Massachusetts, voters went to the polls in a primary to select candidates for each party for the upcoming general election to be held in January for the seat left vacant by the death of Senator Kennedy. Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick appointed Paul Kirk on an interim basis.

The polls closed at 8PM EST. No results as yet in the Democratic race but on the GOP side, the Associated Press has projected Massachusetts State Sen. Scott Brown of Wrentham as the winner. From WCVB-Boston:

Massachusetts State Sen. Scott Brown has been given the nod by Massachusetts Republicans to be their man in next month's race for the U.S. Senate seat occupied by Ted Kennedy for close to half a century.

Associated Press projected Brown the winner in the race just before 8:30 p.m., Brown garnering 9,291 votes to opponent Jack E. Robinson's 1,155 votes with 6 percent of the precincts reporting.

The Wrentham politician represents the Norfolk, Bristol, and Middlesex district in the Massachusetts Senate and previously served three terms in the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Before his election to the House in 1998, Brown, 50, served as a Wrentham Selectman for three years and before that as Town Assessor for three years.

The winner of the Democratic primary is widely favored to win the general election scheduled for January 19, 2010. Turnout today was light. As of six pm this evening only 52,653 ballots had been cast in Boston, a mark that represented less than 15 percent of the city's registered voters. Officials in the Bay State expected  a turnout of some 500,000 to 900,000 voters out of the 4.1 million registered voters adding that it would be closer "to the 5 than to the 9."

Update [2009-12-8 22:12:7 by Charles Lemos]: It's Martha!

With 91 percent of the Bay State precincts reporting, Massachusetts Attorney General Coakley has 47 percent of the vote and has been declared the winner. US Rep. Michael Capuano finished second with 28 percent of the vote, according to a rolling Associated Press tally. More from the Boston Herald.

There's more...

US Senate Democratic candidates lining up against Afghanistan surge

I blogged about this earlier in the week, and sure enough, its becoming the trend. In Kentucky, Jack Conway, who is the AG running for the open Senate seat, has come out saying he "expresses reservations about President Obama's plan for troop surge" and that Obama has not adequately expressed a rationale for sending more troops.

Conway's position is in opposition to KY LG Dan Mongiardo, who stated yesterday that he was "inclined to support a troop surge in Afghanistan." Combine that with the contrast over mountaintop mountaintop removal for coal, which Conway opposes and Mongiardo supports, and it's pretty clear whom is the progressive in the primary.

So that's Kentucky.

In Ohio, Jennifer Brunner has already come out opposed to the surge of troops. I've not seen anything from her opponent, LG Lee Fisher. [edit., Lee Fisher does have a position, saying that 30,000 additional troops are not required.]

In Massachusetts, Martha Coakley joined Mike Capuano in opposition.

In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter has stated he is opposed, and Joe Sestak is in favor, and its become a central defining issue between the two candidates.

In Illinois, one of the leading candidates, David Hoffman, has put out a statement saying: " I am skeptical that our mission in Afghanistan should be to spend years rebuilding the country with our armed forces at potentially great cost of American life."

These are all open primaries, where the candidates have their ears much closer to the ground of Democratic voters than those in DC  currently do. I expect that we will see plenty of primary opportunities develop against incumbents whom are in Democratic strongholds that go along with support of the surge.

Look, when your allies are Byron York ("Obama keeps his Afghan promise") and Sarah Palin ("I support President Obama's decision"), you're on the wrong side of the issue.

There's more...


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