by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Jan 14, 2010 at 10:52:46 PM EST
Here's a funny ad about this race:
For Jonathan Singer here, and Nate Silver of 538, its mystifying as to how this is a toss-up. How anyone can consider this not a toss-up seems more obvious. I cannot take the outlier done by the Globe last week, or the Mellman headfake, serious.
The two polls done this week by PPP and Rasmussen combined show a 48-48 tie. The poll done by R2K shows a 49-41 lead by Coakley, with a 8% lead, meaning a tie within the 4% MoE. In both the VA and NJ race, undecideds broke heavily for the Republicans. If anything, that sour landscape has gotten worse since November for Democrats.
Still, I think its barely Coakley right now. I doubt she gets more than 1, maybe 2 percent above her final polling number, but right now, across all the polls, she's at 49% which is enough to push her over the top.
But Brown may win it by staying positive. He's making the right gamble here given his position. Actually, so the onslaught of ads by the partisan Democrats, and Obama's ads as well, the internet ones that I've seen, also have the right message, to mobilize Democrats.
Tough race to call. Definitely a toss-up going into the closing days. Here's a post over on BMG for ya that is a hell-raiser insider whack job against Coakley's campaign job to date. It does appear that the Democrats in MA there have a lingering primary hangover...
[UPDATE] Scott Brown is ahead. The negative ads are back-firing. Coakley is going to lose.... Actually, its a toss-up.
So says the latest Suffolk poll, which shows Brown ahead now 50-46 percent. Hmm, Coakley at 46 now, that's not good. I'll recant my prediction that Coakley is going to win upthread. Brown's taking the highroad with momentum and the lead (in one poll), while Democrats go with a negative onslaught-- it is probably not the best scenario in the closing days for Coakley to win.
[UPDATE] The fat lady may be singing at Fenway already. CrossTarget, which is a GOP firm in Alexandria (may be an IVR spin-off of Target Point?), polled the race at Brown 54-36 for Coakley.
[UPDATE] Ahead of the last couple of polls to come out, my formula comes up with Brown 49, Coakley 49, Kennedy 2.