(Chris): Foley resigns
. This is a huge opportunity for Democrats in FL-16. Tim Mahoney
is the Democratic candidate. I am hearing conflicitng information as to whether or not Floey can be replaced on the ballot. If not, that is yet one more House seat Democrats have picked up.
Update 2 (Jonathan): Netroots legal expert Adam B explains in the comments,
My first take? Under Section 100.111(4)(a) of the Florida election code, Foley can be replaced as the nominee, but his name remains on the physical ballot.Update 3
And, obvs, any new nominee would have to fundraise from scratch.
(Chris): Tim Mahoney has $343K cash as of 8/16
. The district has a partisan voting index of +2.4 Republican. Even as an open seat, this district now favors Mahoney. If Adam B is right, Foley can't be removed fromt he ballot, which would end the race today.Update 4
: In the comments, Jonathan seems to have it now:No, if I'm reading it correctly, the ballot remains unchanged (i.e. Foley v. Mahoney) but all Foley votes go to the annointed GOP replacement. If this is the case, it would be extremely difficult to get a majority to vote for Foley, even if the votes actually were goin got someone else.
Adam B concurs. This seat is now "lean Dem."Original post
Breaking news from the AP's David Espo:
Rep. Mark Foley, R-Fla., is considering resigning from the House in the wake of questions about e-mails he wrote to a former Capitol page, congressional officials said Friday.
These officials said a decision appeared imminent.
The Los Angeles Times' Noam N. Levey has more on the back story.
Six-term Rep. Mark Foley, a member of the powerful Ways and Means Committee and chairman of the House Entertainment Industry Task Force, is being made to explain a series of e-mails he sent in 2005 in which he asked the page how old he was and requested a photo.
The e-mails, copies of which were obtained by The Times, indicate that the boy, 16, then complained to another congressional staff member, noting: "Maybe it is just me being paranoid, but seriously. This freaked me out."
Florida's 16th congressional district, which Foley currently represents, is potentially competitive, with George W. Bush having won 55 percent of the district's vote in 2004 and just 52 percent in 2000. The Democratic candidate in the district, Tim Mahoney, is fairly well funded, with almost $350,000 in the bank as of the middle of August. So if Foley does resign and can be replaced on the ballot (could someone with election law experience dig into Florida's statute?), this race will definitely become one that the Democrats should watch in the next few weeks -- and perhaps even win come November 7.