Senate election thread

Polls closed. Who won? We'll, I am watching a couple of things online right now. One of them is the #masen twitter stream, which updates about 40-80 posts per minute right now. Wow. I'll update this with links to the results and here with maps.

Rasmussen

* Among those who decided how they would vote in the past few days, Coakley has a slight edge, 47% to 41%.

* Coakley also has a big advantage among those who made up their mind more than a month ago.

* 22% of Democrats voted for Brown. That is generally consistent with pre-election polling.

UPDATE:

  • 4% Reporting- Scott Brown 52%, Martha Coakley 47%, Joe Kennedy 1%.
  • 5% Reporting - Brown 53,663 - 52%; Coakley 48381 - 47%; Kennedy 914 - 1%
  • 8%  116/2168 Precincts reporting- Brown 52% Coakley 47% Kennedy 1%
  • 179 of 2168 Precincts Brown 103,633 52% Coakley 93,019 47%

Looks like, with about 10% in, that we are are at about a 5% difference. I'm mostly keeping an eye on Worcester, which right now shows Coakley winning by a 75-23 margin.... but only 1 precinct reporting.

  • 293 of 2168 precincts reporting, Brown 53% Coakley 46%
  • 17% in Brown 52% 200,793 Coakley 47%182,488 Kennedy-3681 1%
  • 21% reporting: Brown (R) 249,106 votes, 53%; Coakley (D) 216,117, 46%

According to Dave Wasserman, a high turnout is happening, which I thought would help Brown, and that's turning into Brown out-performing expectations by 3-4% across the state.

  • 36% reporting, Coakley 47% Brown 52% 639 of 2168 precincts counted.

Worcester is going for Coakley at a 57-41 margin, which isn't enough, with 20/50 reporting. She needs to be in the 60's to win statewide. Brown is going to win.

  • 40% in and Brown leads Coakley by a 52.6- 46.4 percent margin... so I'm off by a combined 1 percent so far (shoulda went decimal).
  • 52% reporting - Brown 587,389 - 52%; Coakley 520,311 - 47%; Kennedy - 11,146 - 1%

Yea, the networks are now calling it for Brown.

  • 64% reporting - Brown 53% Coakley 46% Kennedy 1%

Sorry, MyDD went down and out there for about 30 minutes or so. New platform and all (BreakingBlue got snagged up).

  • 79% reporting - Brown 52.3% Coakley 46.7% Kennedy 1%
  • 94% reporting - Brown 52.2% Coakley 46.8% Kennedy 1%

Here's my two-bits. I'm not shocked by tonights result at all. I guess Democrats really didn't realize that they would be held accountable if they got the reigns of complete power and were not transparent. Crap like buying off Ben Nelson's vote by bribing him with our money is insulting. The internet is just a tool of transparency, and no one, least of all the online progressives, has been fooled by the last year. The Republicans have come into our hometown and kicked our butt tonight. The Democrats have less than 10 months to start governing as a people-powered party, or they will lose both the House and the Senate.

UPDATE: LMAO. Am listening to the Democrats in Coakley's party, and after she spoke, they broke out with "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow" by Fleetwood Mac. Yea, this was a 90's campaign for the Democrats.... then it ended, and they just re-played it again.

FINAL UPDATE: With 96% reporting, Brown is leading Coakley and Kennedy by a 52-47-1 margin.

I predicted a 53-46-1 margin in favor of Brown. MyDD user esconded one-upped me by predicting Brown 51.5 to Coakley 46.5 margin. But wait a sec, that was opposite esconded's 2010 predictions ;)

 


MA Senate Prediction thread

Of course, I hope my analytical hat is wrong. But frankly, I would take the 2:1 or 3:1 that Chris Bowers and Nate Silver are handing out for their odds. It's always fun when we have a polling upset though,

I loved Kyle's idea of baking the predictions into the user system here, but until then, we'll have to use a prediction thead, so make yours in the comments. The best/closest will get their bonus in a shout-out. Mine is the same as yesterday: Brown 53, Coakley 46, Kennedy 1

One more ironic note. If Coakley wins, it will be Rasmussen, with its final poll, that has called it correct. Rather than release a poll closer than a week out, Rasmussen just had this to say:

That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.

Quite the hedge for a Brown win, but positioned to have a response for those that say Rasmussen is biased in its questioning if Coakley wins.

Also, things continue to press ahead for MyDD 5. I am hoping we get the new WYSIWIG and post/preview/draft system deployed this week for entries and comments. We've put in a "news feed" to track replies for now. But ultimately, we'll also return with a user profile that has things like what are on DKos, but also working in a follower/following and private message system with the user profile, as part of this first phase of 5.

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