by latinfighter, Thu May 08, 2008 at 08:54:27 AM EDT
As some of you know, I am a strong pro-Clinton supporter.
However, I am ready to support Senator Obama in November if he is indeed the nominee. I am confident that he will be a great President given the opportunity.
Let me now update you on the state of some Latino political activists. (Although we are technically suppose to be Non-Partisan, its no secret that these groups are Democratic leaning in political views.)
Just came off a conference call with over 270 Latino leaders, activists, local & county elected officials representing 29 states. Many of the participants are also members of organizations like NALEO, NCLR which is the Largest Latino Civil Rights Org in America, HBLA(Hispanics Business Leaders of America),LEAP, VIVA Latino Voter Mobilization, etc.
There was a strong presence of leaders from states like NM,CA,CO,MO,FL,NJ,NY,TX,PA,NV,OH,VA,MD,A Z.
Main Agenda: It is evident that Senator Barack Obama will very likely be the Democratic Nominee for President.
With that being the case, what unified action can we take to ensure the highest participation of Latino voters
But there is one FACT facing Latino activists this November.
( Base on multiple pollings & surveys completed by different Latino orgs in the last 60 days)
That fact is:
A) GOP John McCain is now poised to be the first Republican Presidential Candidate to ever win the Latino vote for President.
(multiple surveys show McCain polling at a range of 50% to as high as 58% among registered Latino voters against Obama who is ranging between 40% to 49% .)
B) Obama Latino campaign surrogates have repeatedly emphasizedto Latino politicians & activists, that Sen. Obama will need anywhere from 67% to 70% of Latino voters in the General Election in order to offset the expected drop of support from White voters in the General election.
Note: Kerry got 53% of Latino votes
Gore got 62% of Latino votes
B.Clinton got 72% of Latino votes
( CNN official 2004,2000,1996 national exit polls )
Heavy Latino Mobilization of voters across the country.
Target: Heavy emphasis on New 1st time voters, Latino Senior Citizens, & young Latino voters.
Solutions: In all past National & Statewide elections, VOTER MOBILIZATION was & has always been the answer for latino voters. Education of New Voters & assistance in transporting voters on election day.
But their is a Unique Problem facing Latinos in 2008 :
Various polling estimates have it at 33% to 46% of Latino democrats & latino leaning democrats will Not support Obama in the fall. ( This is why GOP McCain is poised to win the Latino vote for the first time )
Among this group of latino democrats : it is pretty much accepted that they are SPLIT between two groups.
Group A - Plans to Stay Home on election day
Group B - Plans to Vote for McCain in November
Here's the BIG HEADACHE that Latino activists across America right now. This will be the heavy discussion in the next two months.
The dilemma is:
If We Latinos go all out & Mobilize, convince, push,call, force, pressure Latino voters to come out on November 4th & exercise their priviledge & right to Vote.
One MAJOR UNINTENDED consquence is what SCARES & CONCERNS democratic latino activists.
We may unintentionally Add to the Damage on Obama by forcing these Latinos who were planning to Stay at Home, to actually Vote on election day & end up voting for John McCain.
Remember, the 'Stay at home" voters are at 15%-20% of All latino voters.Since they are democrats, these people have voted for Kerry, Gore & Bill Clinton in the past.
But of course, this group has no plans whatsoever in supporting Obama.
Will we be adding injury to our nominee by forcing hundreds of thousands of these voters to the polling booth just to vote for McCain anyway???
The argument of some on the call is these people will Definitely vote for the Democratic Down Ticket & thus, it is worth reaching out to them.
But others argue that they would rather have these large number of people just stay home rather than vote for McCain
This discussion will continue in the next two months.
Either way, speaking as a neutral observer.
So many Latino activists Do Not See how Obama can possibly win in November. They will support him. But his problem with Whites & Latino voters is real & not make believe.
Many Latino politicians "privately" ridiculed & called Donna Brazile's logic as "Pure Stupity".
No Democrat in 2008 or 2012 can win the white house without solid support from Latinos & Working Class whites. Its impossible.