KS-Sen: Dem Rep. Dennis Moore Won't Run for Reelection

The Hotline has the details:

Sources close to Rep. Dennis Moore (KS-03) say that the congressman will not run for re-election in 2010. It's unclear if he will launch a Senate bid instead; Sen. Sam Brownback is stepping down that year and is expected to run for governor.

Via a spokeswoman, Moore said today: "I am honored to be serving the people of the Third District and have every intention of continuing my work in Congress on their behalf."

[...]

Moore, a former Johnson Cnty. Dist. Atty and Army reservist, was re-elected in November to his sixth term.

We have been watching this race for quite some time, and suffice it to say that although the Democrats have quite a dry spell going in Kansas Senate races dating back to the 1930s the race in 2010 to succeed Sam Brownback has a real potential of being competitive.

For some time it looked like Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius would be the Democrats' best choice in 2010, though if Barack Obama taps his long time supporter for the Cabinet a Senate run would almost undoubtedly be out of the question. Yet Dennis Moore, who has consistently been able to win in a Republican-leaning district (it has a Cook PVI of R+4, meaning it tends to lean about 4 percentage points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections), could be a formidable candidate in his own right.

Moore certainly is not the most progressive Democrat in the House. In fact, his progressive punch score of 80.65 puts him in the most moderate quintile of the caucus. That said, considering that Todd Tiarht, who very well might be the Republican Senate nominee in 2010, scores just 4.83 out of 100 according to Progressive Punch, Moore would certainly be a more palatable choice.

Tiarht does have a lot more money in the bank right now than does Moore -- $1,182,697 to $354,441 -- and, as noted above, Democrats have been shut out in Senate elections in Kansas for the last 70+ years. That said, Moore could make this open seat race competitive, so these early inklings are a positive development in the Democrats' hopes of winning this Senate seat (even if it makes it less likely that Democrats will hold on to Moore's congressional seat).

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KS-SEN: Wichita Eagle endorses Jim Slattery

A pleasant surprise struck me when I read this morning's Wichita Eagle.  The paper's editorial board decided to endorse Democratic challenger Jim Slattery over incumbent Bush-enabler Pat Roberts for the Senate.

It's not likely to matter too much, but it's good to see that Roberts isn't being given a free pass for this term's misdeeds.  In fact, the Eagle's board laid out a number of the arguments against Roberts in their editorial.

Here's the story link.

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A look at the 2008 Senate races, mid-October edition

Bumped - Todd

With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

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A Look at the 2008 Senate Races, September Edition

So with the Alaska primary and the conventions now over, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous August diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

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KS-Sen: Roberts Gets Skittish About His Party Affiliation

The latest Rasmussen Reports survey out of Kansas shows incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts leading former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery, who is a member of the MyDD Road to 60 Act Blue page, by a 56 percent to 37 percent margin (down from a 61 percent to 33 percent lead in the previous poll). But if you think these numbers say everything about this race, you had better think again. Roberts is indeed worried -- just look at what he won't be doing next month.

Sen. Pat Roberts (KS) is now the eighth Republican senator to announce that they will not attend the GOP Convention in St. Paul, Minn., next month.

Roberts spokeswoman told the Topeka Capital Journal today that Roberts will be campaigning that week, finishing up his 105 county statewide tour during the convention week.

Four others who've announced they won't be attending are -- Ted Stevens (AK),  Elizabeth Dole (NC), Gordon Smith (OR), and Susan Collins (ME). All are running for re-election and are in close races. (Collins may have the easiest race, but she's never been a close ally of McCain.)

Despite the fact that Roberts apparently holds a decent lead in head-to-head polling (though those numbers are at least in part reflective of the fact that his campaign has been on air in the state quite heavily in recent months) and that the Democrats have not won a Senate election in Kansas since 1932, Roberts is worried enough about his chances at reelection that he won't attend the Republican National Convention. Incumbents not worried about winning another term don't shy away from their party, particularly when they represent states seemingly heavily tilted in favor of their party. These actions speak loudly, indicating that Slattery does have a real shot at victory. If you'd like to help him out, head over to Act Blue today and make your voice heard.

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