This week in 2004: Kerry up by 4 points

Many of us felt that we couldn't possibly lose to Bush--he was just so obviously bad for our country. At that moment, many of us felt like this could be it. This could be the election when we beat the Right, ended the Bush nightmare, and put a (decently) progressive candidate in the White House. We were wrong.

As we've seen Obama's lead in the polls vanish over the past few weeks (the latest Zogby poll shows McCain with a 1 point lead), it's a fitting reminder: this year's fight will be at least as hard as '04. Get started here.

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Yes, Kerry asked McCain to be his VP

Yes, John McCain is an unlikeable fellow who has no business getting within 100 yards of the White House.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/8/10/1212 34/355

Why McCain was ever the Washington Democrats' favorite Republican always escaped me.  Why the DC Dems always said such nice things about McCain over the years always confounded me.

But, now, we need to deal with it.  And soon.  McCain's best ad is the one with all of our leaders praising McCain.

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The REAL problem with McCain

McCain was a shallow callow young to middle aged man, who dumped the "stand by me" first wife after she got older and heavy and handicapped, and hooked up with the hot blond young chicky with the big bucks and the daddy with connections.  Facing ultimate retirement on a military disabilty pension, McCain found the young blonde with all that beer money pretty irresistible.  McCain leapt from a being PTS-suffering heavy-drinking disabled veteran to a U.S. Senator (using his bio, her looks, and her daddy's money).

In Congress, McCain uniformly adherred to the Arizona paleo con line and got involved with dirty S & L money (during the last Bush-induced lending and property collapse).  After avoiding indictment for corruption, McCain covered his trail by espousing "campaign finance reform" and developing a reputation for independent rhetoric (always combined with party line votes).

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Fire surrogate Kerry! (with minty fresh update)

This morning's MTP featured "the candidates' top surrogates", John Kerry and Joe Lieberman.  I don't know which annoyed me more.  

Actually, I expect nothing good out of the mouth Quisling Joe, the man who cost Gore the election and then caved on the recount.  So, Kerry wins by default.

Well, there's Kerry, defending Obama's "compromise" on off shore drilling by arguing that off shore drilling is a stupid ineffective energy strategy, i.e., covering his behind on the issue rather than promoting the candidate's position.

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Polls and past

Does it seem like it was four years ago? Seems much longer to me. Via Rasmussen:
Four years ago today, John Kerry led George W. Bush by four points (49% to 45%) and by five with leaners (51% to 46%). That matched his best day ever and was the last time he enjoyed such a sizable lead. At this point four years ago, the Democratic National Convention had already been held.
It's going to be a much quicker sprint to election day after the conventions.


Obama is up by a 47-46 margin in today's Rasmussen poll. The same margin, 45-44, in yesterday's Gallup poll, and today its tied at 44-44. It's odd though, that the tracking polls show a race that is tied, while the one-off polls consistently show a pretty good Obama lead. I've not seen a good rationale for why that is happening.

I know along of other progressive bloggers follow the trendlines on Pollster.com, but I have followed RCP since they nailed the 2004 election with their methodology (even though they screwed up 2000). Pollster.com has tried different types of speeds with their charts, but overall, it didn't scratch the predictive itch in the primaries. Plus, I can't believe anyone would seriously include the Zogby Interactive internet polls in their charts?!?! I'll stick with RCP. All that blah-blah, here's a couple of trend charts I put together on the go:

The charts are obvious enough, I hope. Obama's trend is upward, McCain's downward. The trend continues until the line is broken (45 for McCain and 46 for Obama). This isn't set in gold, but given its made up of a poll of polls, I tend to place some weight in its take of the race at a particular moment, with Obama at 46.5 and McCain at 43.9 today.

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