Numbers

Barack Obama lived up to the polls.  He really didn't exceed them, but he is winning a huge victory in the Electoral College.  His margin it the popular vote currently stands at 51-48, the exact number that Bush put up in '04, but it likely will get a bit higher with the blue states of California, Washington, and Oregon recording a lot of votes.

Maybe pollsters aren't so crazy.  They coalesced around a 5-7 point margin and it looks like Obama will get to the low end of that spread.  Further, Obama may go well past 350 electoral votes.  He, at this minute, has small margins in North Carolina and Indiana.  Obama won all of the swing states, some by small margins.

Here are some things that happened and didn't happen.  There is not or only a very small "Bradley effect".  The Republican "brand" is tarnished as much as I have ever seen.  The economy is in terrible shape and the people want answers, not from Republicans.

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Indiana Still Too Close Too Call

With 20% reporting, Barack Obama is down just 5 points in Indiana, 48%-51%. The Democratic areas, such as Gary and Indianapolis, are not in yet. Look at that Northwest corner, which is adjacent to Illinois. Look at the CNN exit polls and it looks like an Obama advantage although those do tend to shift. Nothing official yet but so far, it's looking good.

Update [2008-11-4 19:45:14 by Todd Beeton]:More good news for Obama: ABC just reported that Obama is down just 3 points among white voters in Indiana.

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UPDATE: Project Vote Lawsuit in Indiana puts 200 Voters Back on the Rolls

In a victory for voting rights and common sense, Marion County, Indiana has agreed that 200 Indiana residents will not be blocked from the polls just because they registered using a slightly-different registration form from previous election cycles.

As we reported yesterday, Project Vote filed an emergency lawsuit against Secretary of State Todd Rokita and the Marion County Board of Elections on behalf of Drametra Brown, an Indianapolis nursing assistant whose registration was rejected because she filled out a 2004 registration form. The 2004 was slightly but not substantially different from the 2008 form, but Marion County had said they could not accept it because it lacked two small (and redundant) check boxes.  

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Project Vote Files Suit on Behalf of Indiana Voters Who Registered Correctly, but on the Wrong Form

Drametra Brown grew up in Indianapolis, attended Broad Ripple High School, and spent most of her life in the city. Now 37 and a certified nursing assistant, Drametra works with senior citizens at Alpha Home, an Indianapolis nursing home. Drametra had never voted before, but this year was different, and when a fellow staff member and good Samaritan Lisa Hamilton, Alpha Home's Admissions Director, handed out blank registration forms she had in her office to sign up elderly residents in late September, Drametra and other employees signed up as well.

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Where are the candidates today, and what does it mean?

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

You can tell a lot about candidates' internal polling, which at this point surely involves knowledge of early polling results, by where their campaigns are sending them during the last days of the campaign.  

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Diaries

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