Wright Won the Campaign for Obama

I realize this is sort of counter-intuitive, but bear with me here.

Just after PA, the sort of "CW" was that Obama would probably win NC by around 20 points and that IN was a tossup.  Somehow or another, even given this, IN was considered the key for Obama to finish off the race (for whatever reason), and he was given at least a 40-50% shot of winning it.

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Clinton takes Indiana

WIth 99 percent in, Clinton is up by over 20,000 votes.  Lake didn't go for Obama as strongly as initially expected.

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VOTE! Do you know? NC? IN? BO? HRC? Go on Record!

The scenarios are Stolen from Elrod's Prediction Thread, but I thought it would be fun to put it up as a poll. We can find out how good at predicting results this community is on aggregate. Users who want to go on record individually can use the comments.

Elrod picks:
North Carolina: Obama wins by 8-11 points
Indiana: Clinton wins by 5-8 points

Wonder how this will play in IN?

I don't think they will like it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN_nQOHj_ _s

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IN and NC: head fakes and decision trees

This Dem primary has been invaluable in the sense that it has been a goldmine for the demographics of the liberal, Democratic-leaning electorate. In a post I did a while back, I compared the primary outcomes for Ohio to Wisconsin and found that the two looked remarkably different:

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