by leshrac55, Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:01:05 PM EDT
I realize this is sort of counter-intuitive, but bear with me here.
Just after PA, the sort of "CW" was that Obama would probably win NC by around 20 points and that IN was a tossup. Somehow or another, even given this, IN was considered the key for Obama to finish off the race (for whatever reason), and he was given at least a 40-50% shot of winning it.
by proseandpromise, Tue May 06, 2008 at 09:13:08 PM EDT
WIth 99 percent in, Clinton is up by over 20,000 votes. Lake didn't go for Obama as strongly as initially expected.
by graham poor, Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:06:12 PM EDT
The scenarios are Stolen from Elrod's Prediction Thread, but I thought it would be fun to put it up as a poll. We can find out how good at predicting results this community is on aggregate. Users who want to go on record individually can use the comments.
North Carolina: Obama wins by 8-11 points
Indiana: Clinton wins by 5-8 points
by TurtleLeper, Fri May 02, 2008 at 06:12:38 AM EDT
by azizhp, Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 04:49:50 AM EDT
This Dem primary has been invaluable in the sense that it has been a goldmine for the demographics of the liberal, Democratic-leaning electorate. In a post I did a while back, I compared the primary outcomes for Ohio to Wisconsin and found that the two looked remarkably different: