November House rankings: How many more Republican retirements?

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected -- especially Rep. Ferguson's in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The full ratings is available here, at Campaign Diaries.

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House Ratings: Things look even better in October!

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07...

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Random Thoughts

I thought turnout would be high today, but there are indications that it will be very, very high. Close to Presidential turnout, even. This makes me think to the dueling generic ballot polls over the weekend. The thing about those polls was that the registered voter polls did not disagree with one another, and they all grouped into a reasonably tight, 9-16 point margin for Democrats. I wonder, on a purely speculative basis, that the truth was pretty much everyone was going to vote, so the flaw in likely voter models was even having them, not in the variations from one likely voter model to another.

I don't know. This is just one of the random thoughts I imagine I will have between now and 6:30 p.m., when we should start to expect results coming in from Indiana and Kentucky. We are looking for three pickups in the House from those two states in order to be on pace for the 23-29 seat forecast I made last night. Less is worrisome, more is fantastic.

This is an open thread.

IN-09: Heart and Soul in the Closest Race in America

You just had to be there. Watching him. Listening to him. Feeling him.


You see, Baron Hill, candidate for US Congress in the Indiana 9th District, was laying it all on the line.

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Bush, First Lady to visit for Sodrel in Indiana

President Bush and Laura Bush will be stumping for Indiana Republican Congressional candidates today and over the next few days:

(Laura) Bush will speak at the Bartholomew County Fairgrounds in the 4-H pavillion before about 500 people at a rally for Sodrel.

(President) Bush will pump up 9th District voters at a rally for Sodrel on Saturday in Sellersburg, north of Louisville, Ky. Laura Bush is visiting Columbus for Sodrel today. Bush's budget director campaigned with Sodrel in the district Monday and Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings will campaign with 2nd District Rep. Chris Chocola in Kokomo on Thursday.

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