Turnover #1

Ellsworth over Hostettler!  That 1!

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Random Thoughts

I thought turnout would be high today, but there are indications that it will be very, very high. Close to Presidential turnout, even. This makes me think to the dueling generic ballot polls over the weekend. The thing about those polls was that the registered voter polls did not disagree with one another, and they all grouped into a reasonably tight, 9-16 point margin for Democrats. I wonder, on a purely speculative basis, that the truth was pretty much everyone was going to vote, so the flaw in likely voter models was even having them, not in the variations from one likely voter model to another.

I don't know. This is just one of the random thoughts I imagine I will have between now and 6:30 p.m., when we should start to expect results coming in from Indiana and Kentucky. We are looking for three pickups in the House from those two states in order to be on pace for the 23-29 seat forecast I made last night. Less is worrisome, more is fantastic.

This is an open thread.

All Eyes on Indiana: GOTV Messages from Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly

Two Indiana congressional candidates in tough races, Joe Donnelly in the Indiana 2nd and Baron Hill in the Indiana 9th, took time out to record special get-out-the-vote messages. Please click the images below to watch. Also, please send around the link to this diary to anyone you know in Indiana.

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Bush, First Lady to visit for Sodrel in Indiana

President Bush and Laura Bush will be stumping for Indiana Republican Congressional candidates today and over the next few days:

(Laura) Bush will speak at the Bartholomew County Fairgrounds in the 4-H pavillion before about 500 people at a rally for Sodrel.

(President) Bush will pump up 9th District voters at a rally for Sodrel on Saturday in Sellersburg, north of Louisville, Ky. Laura Bush is visiting Columbus for Sodrel today. Bush's budget director campaigned with Sodrel in the district Monday and Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings will campaign with 2nd District Rep. Chris Chocola in Kokomo on Thursday.

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14 New Polls (4 Senate, 10 House) From CIS

The Right-Wing Anti-immigration group, the Center for Immigration Studies, has 14 new polls out from 10 different House districts and 4 different Senate races. The polls focus on immigration, but also ask which candidates the poll respondents plan to vote for in these 14 races. The polls are all from about the time the Foley scandal broke, with polling done both before and after the scandal (Foley resigned on September 29th). Generally speaking, the Senate polls seem to have been conducted before Foley broke, while the House polls were done shortly after.

CIS did not report candidate percentages, which I calculated from the raw crosstabs in the "detailed breakdown" for all the polls. If anyone wants to check my math, that would be greatly appreciated.

Having just glanced over the results, some of the samples seem to skew a bit to the R side, so keep that in mind, along with the Right-Wing leanings of CIS. The 14 races polled are MO-Sen, PA-Sen, NJ-Sen, MT-Sen, AZ-05, CT-04, IN-08, KY-04, PA-06, TX-17, LA-03, GA-08, CO-07, and OH-06.

For the results, see the flipside.

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