Indiana's Joe Donnelly and "The Washington Crowd"

Two-term Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly, who represents the Indiana Second Congressional District that covers north central Indiana including South Bend, has released the above 30 second spot. The ad touts Rep. Donnelly's tough anti-immigration stance.

"No one should ever be rewarded for breaking the law," Donnelly says in reference to illegal immigration. "That may not be what the Washington crowd wants. But I don't work for them, I work for you."

By the "Washington crowd," Rep. Donnelly means President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader John Boehner.

Over at his campaign website, Rep. Donnelly assures his constituents that he will "an independent voice" for the district, adding that it "has never been about Democrats or Republicans" but "about doing what is right for families" in Indiana and across the country.

The Long Island born and Notre Dame graduate Donnelly is an anti-abortion-rights Democrat who did vote for the healthcare reform law this year but he is opposed to the Obama Justice Department's lawsuit seeking to overturn the Arizona immigration law. He supports more border agents, penalizing businesses that hire illegal immigrants, deporting illegal immigrants convicted of felonies and eliminating "amnesty."

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post has more on the story. Donnelly is not considered to be vulnerable this cycle. He won re-election with 58 percent of the vote and leads his GOP opponent state Rep. Jackie Walorski by 17 points.


Nazi Republicans Running For Congress

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane, Bilerico Project& My Left Wing

click to enlarge

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November House rankings: How many more Republican retirements?

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected -- especially Rep. Ferguson's in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The full ratings is available here, at Campaign Diaries.

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Random Thoughts

I thought turnout would be high today, but there are indications that it will be very, very high. Close to Presidential turnout, even. This makes me think to the dueling generic ballot polls over the weekend. The thing about those polls was that the registered voter polls did not disagree with one another, and they all grouped into a reasonably tight, 9-16 point margin for Democrats. I wonder, on a purely speculative basis, that the truth was pretty much everyone was going to vote, so the flaw in likely voter models was even having them, not in the variations from one likely voter model to another.

I don't know. This is just one of the random thoughts I imagine I will have between now and 6:30 p.m., when we should start to expect results coming in from Indiana and Kentucky. We are looking for three pickups in the House from those two states in order to be on pace for the 23-29 seat forecast I made last night. Less is worrisome, more is fantastic.

This is an open thread.

All Eyes on Indiana: GOTV Messages from Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly

Two Indiana congressional candidates in tough races, Joe Donnelly in the Indiana 2nd and Baron Hill in the Indiana 9th, took time out to record special get-out-the-vote messages. Please click the images below to watch. Also, please send around the link to this diary to anyone you know in Indiana.

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