Gov. Corzine Strong for Josh Zeitz (NJ-4)

Cross-posted at Blue Jersey.

The race in New Jersey's 4th District is heating up, and NJ Dems are rallying around Josh Zeitz.

I would like to call your attention to this article, and to the strong backing Josh Zeitz has received from Governor Corzine (and the New Jersey Democratic Party leadership in general). Josh is going to defeat antichoice caucus chair and Bush-backer Chris Smith, and the fact that Jon Corzine is working energetically on his behalf makes clear that leading NJ Dems think so as well. Here's just what the Gov. has been up to:

Corzine spearheaded a Zeitz fund-raising event at a Trenton restaurant last week, and plugged the professor's candidacy at his governor's gala for the State Democratic Committee last night.

While having his home state Governor's support is fabulous, Josh also needs help, and especially volunteers, from politically active Democrats. Please take a look at his website , and email me at ian_joshzeitz_dot_com if you'd like to volunteer.

There's more...

Boyda Looks Real Strong in Kansas

I have been writing quite a bit about Kansas in recent weeks and months, both on the Senate level, where former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery is hoping to become the first member of the party since 1932 to win a Senate election in the state, and on the presidential level, where it appears Barack Obama might have a shot at victory -- or at least the opportunity to put John McCain on his heels in yet another state. Now here's polling on the most competitive (at least theoretically) House race in the state:

Anzalone Liszt Research (D) for Cong. Nancy Boyda

Nancy Boyda vs. Jim Ryun

Nancy Boyda (D): 54 percent
Jim Ryun (R): 37 percent
Undecided: 9 percent

Nancy Boyda vs. Lynn Jenkins

Nancy Boyda (D): 57 percent
Lynn Jenkins (R): 27 percent
Undecided: 15 percent

According to this polling, which I slightly reformatted but did not otherwise alter for the purposes of this post, Boyda is trouncing both the former Representative for this district (Ryun) and the state Treasurer (Jenkins) in head-to-head polling. Do recall that according to the Cook Political Report this race is a "tossup", and this district leans about 7 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. Then again, if the Democrats could overwhelmingly win in Mississippi's first congressional district, which tends to lean about 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole, perhaps it's time to re-think the way folks are rating these races.

Regardless, I think these numbers underscore an important point: Kansas isn't the overwhelmingly red state it once was. Is it still more red than blue? No doubt. But just as Mark Warner helped move Virginia from a red state to a purple one, so too has Kathleen Sebelius, the popular Democratic Governor of Kansas, helped move her state from being a deep red state to a reddish-purple. Don't believe the trend? In 2006, the Democrats received a remarkable 49.6 percent of the two-party congressional vote, which is about as close to even as you're going to get.   The state isn't quite there yet, but I will say this: Boyda is looking strong, Slattery has a real fighting chance, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if Obama did what was only done four times during the 20th century: earn 45 percent or more of the vote in Kansas as the Democratic nominee, thus putting the state on the map in the presidential election.

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Breaking Poll: Kissell and Obama lead in NC-08

The most recent poll is out for North Carolina's 8th Congressional District race and it shows Larry Kissell leading Robin Hayes in a pure unadulterated head-to-head match up.  The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt, shows Kissell at 45% and Hayes at 43%.

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GOP Insiders: We Will Lose 5 Senate Seats, 14 in the House

Last week National Journal magazine polled Democratic and Republican Party insiders to ask them what they thought the results of the 2008 congressional elections would look like. Surprisingly (or perhaps not), the predictions from the two sides didn't look all too different when they were posted over the weekend:

Average Projection from Democratic and Republican Insiders


Apparently no Republican insiders were willing to go on record as projecting no net gain for either party in the House or the Senate -- though 5 percent foresaw Democratic gains in the Senate of 7 or more seats, and nearly a quarter predicted a 20+ seat pickup for the Democrats in the House.

Does this mean that this will come to pass? Of course not. A whole lot can and will happen between now and November 4. That said, the pessimism on the right speaks for itself -- perhaps even more loudly than just the projections alone. With Republican insiders, who are likely privy to private polling in addition to all of the data publicly available, seeing major losses again on the horizon, there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of hope left within the GOP at this juncture.

GOP Ctees Outraise, Outspend Dem Ctees; Still Trail Badly in CoH

All of the parties' political committees were required to release their monthly campaign finance details yesterday. Here is what the reports show:

CommitteeApril ReceiptsApril DisbursementsApril Cash-on-HandApril Debts & Obligations
DSCC (est.) $4,200,000.00$4,500,000.00$37,600,000.00$0
NRSC (est.)$4,300,000.00$2,300,000.00$19,400,000$0
$28,397,883.0817,263,558$66,777,822.34 $0

As you can see, this was a big fundraising month for the GOP, cutting the Democratic committees' cash-on-hand lead by about a third. This underscores the need to ensure that money continues to go into the committees -- particularly the Democratic National Committee, though presumably the DNC's fundraising issues should virtually fall away when the nominee takes over the committee -- so that the Democrats' fundraising advantage is not frittered away.

That said, let's not overlook the fact that despite the remarkable month the Republican National Committee had in April, the Democratic committees nonetheless hold a $20 million overall advantage in available money. What's more, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has close to a 7-to-1 net cash-on-hand advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee still has close to a 2-to-1 advantage in that metric over the National Republican Senatorial Committee. On top of that, Barack Obama raised in excess of 70 percent more in April than did John McCain, and Obama and Hillary Clinton combined to raise about three times as much money as McCain. So overall the financial health of the Democratic Party remains very sound.


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