Democratic Majorities will be more moderate not less

If the Democrats re-gain control of the House, which pundits and prognosticators say they will, it will do so without the old Confederacy as a base of support.  This is a big deal, and signifies a shift in the politics of the South and the Northeast.

But it doesn't necessarily mean that the Democratic Party itself will become more Liberal, despite what Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller think. I explain why in the extended.  

There's more...

NM-01: Wilson Lies for George Bush, Again!

Cross posted at the Madrid for Congress blog...

In this morning's ABQJournal, Wilson said:


"The intelligence that caused me to vote in favor of authorizing the use of force was not Saddam's nuclear program, but his biological program," Wilson said in the written statement this week.

That's a lie. On March 8, 2003, on the eve of war, Wilson told the Albuquerque Tribune that it wasn't just biological weapons - that it was also Saddam's chemical weapons and his desire to obtain nuclear weapons that caused her to vote in favor of going to war with Iraq. Wilson:


"For me," (Wilson) said, "the action against Iraq has to do with chemical and biological weapons and Saddam Hussein's desire to get nuclear weapons. We can't let him have those weapons."

Rep. Wilson, it's time to be honest with New Mexicans. You've supported Bush's war from the beginning. You've never asked the tough questions about what got us into the war in Iraq. And, now, you're continuing to flip flop on why you voted for this disastrous war in the first place. Rep. Wilson, New Mexicans deserve the truth - and, it's time you gave it to them.

There's more...

NM-01: Reuters Poll Shows Madrid Up Big

I don't think that I can quite believe that the news is this good -- a Reuters poll has Patricia Madrid up ten points on Heather Wilson.

They have a little snippet in the Washington Post.

NEW MEXICO 1 - Five-term Republican Rep. Heather Wilson trails Democrat Patricia Madrid 50-40 percent in this Albuquerque-based swing district.
That's all it says on the race, but out of the 15 races polled, Democrats lead in 11 of them.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

There's more...

ABQJournal: "Madrid Gains Ground" (New Poll!)

Cross posted at the Madrid for Congress blog and Daily Kos...

The latest ABQJournal poll is in and it shows a dead heat!

Research & Polling. September 25-28. MoE 5% (August 24-31)

Patricia Madrid (D) 44 (42)
Heather Wilson (R) 44 (45)

There's more...

Latest Committee Moves

The general pattern is holding so far. The DCCC is spending all of its money on media buys, while the NRCC continue to go heavy with polling and mail. The DCCC dropped more than $1M yesterday, mostly on very top-tier districts where Democrats are already ahead according to available polling. The NRCC continues to focus on seemingly less top-tier districts. Is this another "fire-wall" strategy we are seeing from the NRCC, where they de-emphasize the top tier, concede several seats, aim to stop the bleeding in the second tier, and focus on preventing a national landslide? See for yourself at Political Money Line.

DCCC: (all media buys unless otherwise noted)
  • NM-01: $211K. They spent $9K alone on producing the ad here. It better look good.
  • IA-01: $123K. About one third of these ads are positive.
  • AZ-08: $115K. Is this really necessary? Giffords leads by 19 points, and wingnut Graf has little money.
  • IN-08: $114K
  • PA-10: $96K. Half of these ads appear to be positive. This is also a lot of money for this media market, which is one of the cheapest in the country.
  • WI-08: $84K
  • IN-02: $80K
  • NY-24: $97K. About one-fifth of this is mail.
  • IN-09: $73. Half of these ads appear to be positive.
  • VA-02: $64K
  • WA-08: $28K of mail
  • OH-15: $17K of mail
  • GA-12: $12K. This must be a radio or cable ad if it is only $12K, and $1K in production. It is also the first drop of defensive money I have seen the DCCC spend in months.
NRCC
  • OH-18: $32K of mail
  • MN-06: $24K of mail
  • CO-04: $11K of mail
  • New surveys in AZ-08, CA-11, CO-04, CT-02, CT-04, NV-03, NY-24, OH-02, OH-15 and WI-08. Ten more surveys today in Republican-held districts for another $140K. We have not seen the results of any of these polls. I guess they are still willing to spend some money in OH-02.
  • Is the DCCC aware of how much money the NRCC is dumping into CA-11? They are over $200K now.
NRSC
  • MO-Sen: $821K. Firewall indeed
Fascinating as always.

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