But she has momentum!

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane, Bilerico Project& My Left Wing


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High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Here's the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

State election officials expect turnout to be about 35% of the voting-age population, which would rank Wisconsin near the top of states that have voted.

And here's The Honolulu Advertiser:

The Democratic Party of Hawai'i is predicting record turnout at its caucuses tonight and is asking people to be patient in the event of long lines or confusion at the caucus sites.

Caucus turnout has never exceeded 5,000 but party officials believe that figure could double tonight and could reach as high as 12,000. Local volunteers for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are suggesting that turnout could even climb into the 15,000 to 18,000 range, which would likely overwhelm party volunteers conducting the presidential preference poll.

[...]

Party officials said that more than 1,200 people had joined the party in the weeks before Super Tuesday. But an additional 5,000 people have since signed up as the caucuses became relevant to the Democratic presidential nomination.

While an acrimonious primary between two strong candidates who both have deep and fervent support can potentially make it more difficult for the candidate who emerges from the primary (and I stress "can" because I am not entirely convinced that this is necessarily the case), it's hard to argue with the data showing that the contested nature of this cycle's Democratic primaries are getting Democrats energized in a way we've not really seen before (or at least for a very long time) and bringing a whole lot of new people to the party. In the long term, and even the medium term (and I'm talking the remainder of this cycle, potentially), this is a great sign for the Democratic Party.

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Attn. SuperDelegates: Obama Wants to Win So Badly....

He'll do it on the backs of Republicans. Obama's website showcases front-page information on how anyone can show up to vote in Wisconsin or Hawaii today and vote for him by changing their party registration.

It seems to me that many Republicans would do just that in order to secure the nomination for Obama because they know he'll get smeared and defeated by McCain in November.  After all, what's the motivation to cast a vote for McCain now when he's already the presumptive nominee and mathematically cannot be caught?  It's absurd to think that Republicans and right-leaning Independents would back Obama, the most liberal Senator, in the general election.  This is a classic political trick!

(In anticipation of those who will say Obama leads Clinton in General Election polls against McCain, the obvious counter-point is that Obama has not yet been scrutinized by the media and he has not yet faced a dedicated Republican attack machine.  If he gets the nomination, both will be coming in full force and those poll numbers will drastically change.  It's way too soon to be relying on GE match-up polls when we've seen polls swing by double digits in the course of a week in this election cycle.)

Please, Superdelegates, look carefully at which candidate wins the majority of Democratic votes in all the primaries, not any and all votes from potential election-crashers.  It's the core Democratic vote that will be needed to win back the White House in November.

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Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

To all Obama supporters
For the past few days I have been hearing how Hawaii could possibly go for Clinton for the following reasons: Senator Inouye has endorsed Clinton, therefore the Hawaii Democratic machine favors Clinton. Clinton surrogate Chelsea has hit the state.
Well both factors are negated by the fact that Representative Neil Abercrombie (one of the two representatives Hawaii has, and the one that represents the entire city on Honolulu)  endorsed Obama and is much more out spoken about his endorsement than Inouye is about his. And Obama has a bigger surrogate, his half sitter, who has lived and worked in Hawaii her entire life, and has been working for Obama in Hawaii ever since he started his presidential campaign.
In no shape or form does Hawaii look good for Clinton, and the following articles would seem to give force to that opinion.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p bcs.dll/article?AID=/20080210/NEWS05/802 100359/1001/NEWS05
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p bcs.dll/article?AID=200880213045
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p bcs.dll/article?AID=2008802140354

But I am not saying focus all of your attention onto Wisconsin, just most of it.
Wisconsin is 4 times the prize that Hawaii is, so at best I can see Obama walking away from Hawaii with 15 delegates, but in Wisconsin he could obtain as many as 55 or 60 delegates depending on how strongly he wins in Wisconsin. Seeing how Texas will either be a delegate tie for Obama, or possibly even a popular victory for him, Wisconsin is the state that could put him over the top in the long run.
But all means work Hawaii, but lets make Wisconsin the final nail in Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign grave.
Hillary Clinton will do a great job for us in the Senate for the next 20 to 30 years (or longer), will keep President Obama on the straight and narrow in regards to Universal Health Care, and I have no doubt that within the next 20 years we will have a woman president (my hopes are on McCaskill in 2016). Hillary Clinton doesn't have to be the first woman president, and we would be better served by a woman president that is not nearly as polarizing and divisive as Hillary Clinton is.

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The 66th anniversary of Pearl Harbor

A portion of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's address to Congress:

Yesterday, December 7th, 1941 -- a date which will live in infamy -- the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.

The United States was at peace with that nation and, at the solicitation of Japan, was still in conversation with its government and its emperor looking toward the maintenance of peace in the Pacific.

Indeed, one hour after Japanese air squadrons had commenced bombing in the American island of Oahu, the Japanese ambassador to the United States and his colleague delivered to our Secretary of State a formal reply to a recent American message. And while this reply stated that it seemed useless to continue the existing diplomatic negotiations, it contained no threat or hint of war or of armed attack.

Today we remember those who died in the attack on Pearl Harbor 66 years ago.

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