KY-Gov Prediction: Beshear 59 - Fletcher 41

As Todd noted, it's election day in Kentucky and the Republicans are up to their normal dirty tricks. But gauging by polling out of the states, it seems that these tricks may be for naught, with a new SurveyUSA poll putting Democrat Steve Beshear up 20 points over incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher and even the folks at Insider Advantage, who have consistently found Beshear's lead to be significantly lower than that of any other poll, estimating Beshear's margin of victory at 12 points based on numbers they have seen but apparently have not released.

(R)(D)
Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
SurveyUSA
11/2-4
3959
Insider Advantage
(prediction)
4456
Rasmussen Reports
11/1
3954
Bluegrass Poll
10/26-29
3356
Research 2000
10/22-24
4055
1-Month Average
10/10-11/4
38.756.8
7-Month Average
5/23-11/4
37.254.9

Earlier polls below the fold...

If I had to make a guess as to the results of this race, I'd probably say Beshear will win 59 percent to 41 percent. I'm not always so good at these things, though I did correctly predict Jim Bunning's 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent victory over Dan Mongiardo in the 2004 Kentucky Senate election, for whatever that's worth (notice, too, that my other predictions on election eve 2004 were more than a bit off...). How do you think this race will break?

There's more...

KY-Gov: Fletcher Falls Under 40 Percent in Two New Polls

If you're an incumbent Governor trailing your challenger by a double-digit margin less than a week out from election day, you probably would rather not see your numbers drop from the upper-30s to 40 percent to the mid-30s. But such is the case for Kentucky's Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher, who is polling way down in the mid-30s in two new polls matching him up against Democrat Steve Beshear.

(R)(D)Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
SurveyUSA
10/27-293660Bluegrass Poll
10/26-293356Research 2000
10/22-244055SurveyUSA
10/19-213858SurveyUSA
10/1040561-Month Average
10/10-10/2937.457.06-Month Average
5/23-10/2936.454.6
Earlier polls below the fold...

It really just isn't so good for an incumbent to average nearly 20 points down against his challenger. Something could happen between now and Tuesday, when Kentuckians go to the polls -- but it's not terribly likely at this point. What does remain to be seen, it seems, it whether the Democrats will get enough momentum out of this gubernatorial contest to make good on their very real potential to go after Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell next fall.

There's more...

KY-Gov: Beshear Still Up Big

We're now less than two weeks from election day 2007, and it's looking more and more like Democrat Steve Beshear is going to be elected as the next Governor of Kentucky. The latest survey from the race comes courtesy of The Lexington Herald-Leader, Action News 36 and Research 2000:

(R)(D)Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
Research 2000
10/22-244055SurveyUSA
10/19-213858SurveyUSA
10/104056Insider Advantage (.doc)
9/24-2535451-Month Average
9/24-10/2438.2553.56-Month Average
5/23-10/2436.754.1Earlier polls below the fold...

Beshear strikes exactly the right tone in commenting on the poll, saying, "The only poll that counts is on Nov. 6, so we're going to continue to work hard to make these kinds of numbers a reality." No race is over 'til it's over (thanks Yogi), so it's good to hear that Beshear is taking nothing whatsoever for granted.

There's more...

KY-Gov: Fletcher Back Under 40 Percent Two Weeks Out

A couple of weeks ago Kentucky Republicans had a modicum of hope. The state's GOP Governor, Ernie Fletcher, finally hit 40 percent in public head-to-head polling matching him up against Democrat Steve Beshear, whom he faces in an election two weeks from today. Unfortunately for the Republicans, however, that survey appears to have been an aberration. Take a look at the latest numbers from the race:

(R)(D)Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
SurveyUSA
10/19-213858SurveyUSA
10/104056Insider Advantage (.doc)
9/24-2535451-Month Average
9/24-10/2137.754.06-Month Average
5/23-10/2136.453.0
Earlier polls below the fold...

A lot of folks were understandably concerned by the results of the weekend's gubernatorial election in Louisiana, with Republican Bobby Jindal winning with 53 percent, thus abrogating a need for a runoff. Even though Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu also won his race with 57 percent of the vote, which bodes well for the hopes of his sister Mary, who is up for reelection to her Senate seat next fall, the big loss in the gubernatorial election had some within the Democratic ranks worrying.

That said, the fact that Democrat Steve Beshear appears headed to receive somewhere upwards of 60 percent in his bid against Governor Fletcher should have Republicans similarly concerned -- particularly given the fact that they, too, must defend a Senate seat in the state next fall and, what's more, Kentucky could conceivably be in play for the Democrats in a way that Louisiana most likely is not.

There's more...

KY-Gov: Fletcher Finally Hits 40 Percent in Poll

Well, he's finally done it. It only took him six months, but Kentucky's Republican Governor has finally hit 40 percent in a public poll. Too bad for him, however, his Democratic challenger Steve Beshear is still polling in the mid-50s.

(R)(D)Fletcher/
Rudolph
Beshear/
Mongiardo
SurveyUSA
10/104056Insider Advantage (.doc)
9/24-253545Bluegrass Poll
9/13-183555Research 2000
9/10-133956SurveyUSA
9/8-103958SurveyUSA
8/4-63758Lane Report
7/25-8/23149SurveyUSA
7/14-163659Insider Advantage
7/8-93841Rasmussen Reports
5/24-253551SurveyUSA
5/23-2434621-Month Average
9/8-2537.654.06-Month Average
5/23-9/2536.353.6

Less than a month out from election day, there's some reason to believe that Fletcher is making a bit of a move, with three out of the last five polls putting him either at 39 percent or 40 percent. The problem for Fletcher, as alluded to above, is that Beshear appears to be holding firm in the mid- to upper-50s (notwithstanding one poll that put him much lower but that clearly did not push respondents hard enough). This race could still tighten up -- in fact I might actually be a bit suprised if the numbers don't get a bit closer in the next few weeks -- but for now Beshear continues to be a prohibitive favorite.

Update [2007-10-10 15:57:50 by Jonathan Singer]:One MyDD diarist muses on the potential ramifications of this race.

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