Obama Confronts Smith's Misleading Ad

Here in Oregon, progressive Democrat Jeff Merkley is in the midst of a contested election against Republican Gordon Smith, who is the current Oregon chairman for the McCain Campaign. The Smith Campaign recently aired a false ad claiming that, "He was one of the first to stand up to George Bush and other Republicans to end this war." Today, Gordon Smith released another false ad, this time using Barack Obama.

Full disclosure: I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Merkley

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Republican. Sen. Gordon Smith runs pro-Obama ad

In a fairly stunning developments Republican Oregon Gordon Smith is running a pro-Obama ad.

The ad shows Obama's face and an image of his website.

"I approve working together across party lines and this ad," Smith closes.

Of course, I look forward to more on the way!

UPDATE- In response to a new TV ad by Oregon GOP Sen. Gordon Smith aligning himself with Obama, the Illinois Senator’s campaign releases a statement saying he’s instead for the Democrat. “…Oregonians should know that Barack Obama supports Jeff Merkley for Senate. Merkley will help Obama bring about the fundamental change we need in Washington.”

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Gordon Smith Trying to Fool Oregonians

Here in Oregon, there is a contested Senate race going on between progressive Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon Smith. Gordon Smith is spending nearly $100,000 a week on ads trying to portray himself as a moderate who works with Democrats.  Republican Gordon Smith is using Democrats Avel Gordly and Elizabeth Furse to try to pull one over on Oregonians. In the ad Elizabeth Furse said that Gordon Smith was one of the first to stand up to Bush to end the war. That is just plain false. There have been countless Democrats and Republicans who spoke out against the war before Gordon Smith started to feel the re-election heat. My Representative Earl Blumenauer and many of his Democratic colleagues aren't letting this misleading ad go unanswered.

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Oregon, Primary Review and General Preview

The following is a review of Oregon's primary and a preview of Oregon's fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/ 121742/983/269/536725).

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Minnesota and Oregon: Swing States No More

Arrggh, don't know what's going on with the weird spacing issues - Todd

Two new Rasmussen Reports surveys out today show Barack Obama performing extremely well in Minnesota and Oregon with our senate hopefuls slightly behind, in need of some of that Obama down-ticket love.

In Minnesota, Obama is just crushing McCain, although notably has gotten no post-primary bounce in the state. They've been loving him for a while.



CandidateJuneMayApril
Obama525352
McCain393838

This is a far cry from 2004 when John Kerry beat George Bush by just 3 points.

As for the senate race, despite his recent troubles, Al Franken is hanging in there in his tight race against Norm Coleman.



CandidateJuneMayApril
Coleman484750
Franken454543

No post-DFL endorsement bounce for Franken but no post-controversy free-fall either. Glad to see Coleman below 50%. There is some danger here for Franken, though, in the form of Jesse Ventura who has threatened to get into the race (the deadline for doing so is July 15.) According to this poll, despite a 62% unfavorable rating, Jesse Ventura would still draw 24% of the vote, handing Coleman a 7 point victory. Franken showed that he has the rank and file of the DFL party behind him when he received their endorsement on the first ballot but there is clearly still some real anxiety about his candidacy. The good news is that there is no sign of any erosion of support in these poll numbers, so hopefully Franken can restore confidence in his candidacy and shake any intentions another Democrat or even Ventura might have toward jumping into the race. If Franken can unite the anti-Coleman forces behind him as the standard bearer, he just might be unstoppable.

In Oregon, things are looking good for Obama as well, but, oddly, if anything, he has seen a post-primary dip in support.



CandidateJuneMayApril
Obama465248
McCain383842

On some level, this 6 point drop makes sense, since last month's poll was taken in the midst of the primary campaign in Oregon. The good news is that McCain remains stuck at 38% and, as for the volatility of the numbers, there's actually more consistency than there appears.

McCain's support remains stalled at the same level this month as in May. In fact, he has stayed between the 38% and 42% level of support in four Oregon polls conducted this year. With the exception of last month's poll, Obama's support has stayed in the 46% to 49% range.

Also, it bears mentioning, that in 2004, John Kerry beat George Bush by a paltry 4%.

In the Oregon senate race, Democratic candidate Jeff Merkley is seeing a post-primary victory drop in support as well, contrary to other polls showing him shoring up support against Smith in the wake of his primary victory against Steve Novick.



CandidateJuneMayApril
Smith474547
Merkley384234

The good news is that Smith is still under 50% and Merkley has just barely begun to introduce himself to people in the general election. A full 20% of respondents didn't know enough about Merkley to have an opinion of him. There is still great room for growth for Merkley.

Looking at just the presidential numbers in these states, I think it's pretty clear what we're seeing here: what were swing states in 2004 are now solid blue in 2008. Which means we have a whole new batch of swing states:

The Obama campaign names a few more state directors today: Buffy Wicks in Missouri; Ray Rivera in Colorado; and Mitch Stewart in Virginia.

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