by Chris Bowers, Mon Aug 16, 2004 at 08:51:05 AM EDT
by Chris Bowers, Tue Jul 06, 2004 at 05:03:46 PM EDT
Poll taken on July 4th No on recall 57 Yes on recall 41A victory for Chavez is a defeat for Bush.
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Jun 28, 2004 at 10:02:07 PM EDT
Lib: 135 (37%)
Con: 96 (30%)
BQ: 54 (13%)
NDP: 22 (16%)
GP: 0 (4%)
Previously, liberals had 168 seats, the conservatives 73, the New Democrats 14 and the Bloc Quebecois 33. So, as predicted, the Liberal/NDP will likely become the next government, with 157 seats, just 2 seats above the amount needed for a clear majority. This is good news on multiple levels.
First, it is a clear rejection of the conservative agenda in Canada. The marker by which to judge CRAP/PC alliance is what they would have garnered in the previous election, had they not been separated. That would have been 115 seats. So that, even though CRAP/PC combined for more seats than their combined total fom the previous election, the current 96 falls below the 115 total that CRAP/PC would have garnered in in the previous election. The conservatives got beat in Canada. A rejection of their devisive social politics opposing abortion and legalized gay marriage, a rejection of Harper's support of the US invasion of Iraq, and a rejection of Harper's corporate-minded economic agenda.
Second, Canada just took one giant step to the left. The Green Party won zero seats, but gained 4% of the national vote, up from .08% in the previous election. Not only does the Green party qualify for national funding in the next election, they will gain a seat in the debates. The radical progressive agenda in Canada is alive and well.
Third, the Liberal Party must now be reformed, and not through ceding to the right, but to the left of the political spectrum. The Liberal Party will have their choice from which to work with, the NDP being the obvious choice. Canada will move even further away from Bush, and even further away from backing the global positions of the Republican Party of the US.
Fourth, first on the reform agenda will be proportional representation, which will allow the 56% that voted Liberal/NDP/Green their representational majority in the next election.
And fifth, the polls were wrong, overcounting the conservatives, and undercounting the liberals.
In short, a terrific beginning in 2004 for North America for progressive politics. Canada will not increase their military budget or reduce social spending. National healthcare and progressive taxation of corporations will proceed. Now roll the momentum on down south of the border.
by Chris Bowers, Mon Jun 28, 2004 at 11:21:22 AM EDT
Update (Chris): The Liberals survive, but they will need the NDP--a little piece of Europe right here in North America. The future is uncertain. If only minority governments in America were viewed in the same manner. Sorry I did not post more--I could not possibly begin to explain why tonight was so difficult for me.
by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Jun 27, 2004 at 07:07:03 PM EDT
- Latest poll: June 25 (June 22)
- Liberals: 32 (34)
- Conservatives: 31 (28)
- NDP: 17 (16)
- Bloc Quebecois: 12 (12)
- Greens: 6 (6)
On Monday, national elections will be held in Canada, the latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows the conservatives with the momentum (see graph). However, I fail to see how making the liberal party a minority ruling party would be a bad thing, especially given if they were made to form a coalition with the NDP and/or the Green Party. Giving Labor and the Environmentalists a stronger seat at the table would be a terrific thing for Canada, as it would move them to an even more progressive and anti-Bush agenda.
The poll from June 22nd showed the Liberal/NDP/Green bloc with 56% of the vote, and this latest poll, from June 25th, shows the Liberal/NDP/Green bloc with 55% of the vote. SES Canada Research polling conducted over the same period found slightly different results, with an even stronger 58% majority:
- Liberals: 34
- Conservatives: 30
- NDP: 20
- Bloc Quebecois: 12
- Greens: 4
Based on their polling, Ipso-Reid predicts the following seat projection:
- Conservatives: 115 - 119 seats
- Liberals: 99 - 103 seats
- Bloc Quebecois: 64 - 68
- NDP: 22 - 26
(For a full explantion of their seat model, see Turning Votes Into Seats)
For this election, I predict the new government will be a Liberal-led minority government supported by the NDP.