Early State Exit Polls (Grain of Salt Required)

Take with a giant grain of salt (please read Pollster.com and Nate Silver on why you should be highly skeptical), but I have received the following numbers from multiple sources:

Florida: Obama 52 percent/McCain 44 percent
Georgia: Obama 47 percent/McCain 51 percent
Indiana: Obama 52 percent/McCain 48 percent
Iowa: Obama 58 percent/McCain 42 percent
Michigan: Obama 60 percent/McCain 39 percent
Minnesota: Obama 60 percent/McCain 39 percent
Missouri: Obama 52 percent/McCain 48 percent
Nevada: Obama 55 percent/McCain 45 percent
New Hampshire: Obama 57 percent/McCain 43 percent
New Mexico: Obama 56 percent/McCain 43 percent
North Carolina: Obama 52 percent/McCain 48 percent
Ohio: Obama 54 percent/McCain 45 percent
Pennsylvania: Obama 57 percent/McCain 42 percent
Virginia: Obama 55 percent/McCain 45 percent
West Virginia: Obama 44 percent/McCain 55 percent
Wisconsin: Obama 58 percent/McCain 42 percent

Note, of course, that these are early exit polls, and that even if they are a fair representation of those going to the polls, voting is still occurring across the country at this hour, and it's possible that the composition of late voters is different from the composition of earlier voters. Note, too, that early exit polls in recent years have tended to skew Democratic as Democrats have tended to be more willing to respond to the interviewers than Republicans.

For what it's worth, these numbers do not seem to comport with the numbers put forward by Gawker, though they do appear to be in line with the numbers Drudge has for Pennsylvania.

Update [2008-11-4 18:34:29 by Jonathan Singer]:Great point from jkfp2004 in the comments. Regardless of whether you are inclined to buy into these early exit numbers or not, continue to make calls, knock on doors, and generally do everything you can in the next few hours.

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More Exit Numbers

Per Fox News, 10 percent of voters are voting for the first time, about the same as the 11 percent in 2004. In the following states, these voters broke down as follows:

Indiana: Obama 73 percent/McCain 23 percent
Ohio: Obama 69 percent/McCain 31 percent
Virginia: Obama 63 percent/McCain 36 percent

White men make up 36 percent of the electorate, the same as in 2004.

Indiana: Obama 44 percent/McCain 54 percent (Kerry 34/Bush 65 in 2004)
Ohio: Obama 47 percent/McCain 51 percent (Kerry 43/Bush 56 in 2004)
Virginia: Obama 39 percent/McCain 58 percent (Kerry 27/Bush 72 in 2004)

These numbers are very early, but at first glance it appears that Obama is doing significantly better among white men than John Kerry.

Out of touch: Just 40 percent of voters say that John McCain is in touch with them, 57 percent say Barack Obama is.

Still more as we get it...

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Early, Early Exit Numbers

Top issues for voters:

The Economy: 62 percent
Iraq: 10 percent
Terrorism: 9 percent
Healthcare: 9 percent

Amazingly, more than a quarter of voters -- 27 percent -- indicated that they had been contacted by the Obama campaign.

A more progressive America: A full 51 percent of voters say they believe government should be doing more to fix the country's problems, while just 43 percent say the country should be doing less.

Fear: 30 percent of voters are scared of the prospect of a McCain victory, while 23 percent are scared of the prospect of an Obama victory.

Prepared: Just 38 percent believe Sarah Palin is prepared to be President, significantly less than the 67 percent saying Joe Biden is prepared.

Taxes: Voters expect to see their taxes raised; 49 percent foresee their taxes will be raised no matter who is elected, 61 percent see their taxes going up under McCain, 70 percent see their taxes going up under Obama.

Approval: Just 27 percent of voters approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President, down from 53 percent in 2004 and 42 percent in 2006.

More as we get it...

(National exit polling data culled from the nets, big media blogs, the wires)

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It seems to me that MSM is pre spinning Hillary's win by giving credit to Obama. If she pulls a win the only factor would be her doggedness. I am under the impression that exit polling shows that cross voting has only benefited Obama but cannot find data. Does any one have the data one way or the other?

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White Men Swing Towards Obama, Though Clinton Still Carried Them

Interesting stuff just on CNN. According to Bill Schneider and Soledad O'Brien, Hillary Clinton carried the White male vote in Pennsylvania by a 53 percent to 46 percent margin (MSNBC had her up by a similar 55 percent to 45 percent margin). To keep in mind, Clinton won White males in Ohio by 19 points, suggesting this swing demographic may have moved towards Obama in the past month and a half. In contrast, Clinton carried White women by a 64 percent to 36 percent margin, about the same margin by which she led in Ohio. Whether this apparent movement will have a meaningful impact on the results (remember, Clinton won Ohio by about 10 points) remains to be seen...

Update [2008-4-22 20:28:21 by Jonathan Singer]: The Obama campaign, via Marc Ambinder, adds:

With voters over 60 in OH, Clinton won 69%, Obama got 28%. In PA, Obama earned 41% of the vote among voters over 60, and Clinton won 59%. The gap among seniors was cut by more than half, from 41 to 19.

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