Why my vote matters, and yours does too...


Newsweek poll: Hillary's deficit with white voters

Oh, look: guess what, Hillary Clinton loses the white vote to John McCain in the latest Newsweek poll. By ten points.

I know, shocking, after all the play-pretend effort with guns, shot glasses, bowling balls and other implements utterly foreign to a Georgetown aristocrat with a nine-figure bank balance.

Well, actually, it's not shocking: Democrats tend not to win a majority of the white vote. Neither Kerry, Gore, Clinton or Dukakis got it.

A little bit more on the subject below the fold, before we proceed to fruitful demagoguery in the comments section. >>>

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Why we must "Wright" off Obama

Sen. Barack Obama's Reverend Jeremiah Wright problem is just the beginning of his would-be November defeat.  The right-wing 527's will morph Sen. Obama into Louis Farrakhan by the time the general election rolls around.  As much as the MSM (and shameless Obama-shilling sites like Kos & HuffPo) try to play down the story, this one will linger.

Many Americans have never heard such vile things said about their country, let alone from the father-figure and spiritual adviser to a leading Presidential candidate.  Besides that, word came out today that Obama's financial ties to Tony Rezko are much closer than he previously declared.  What else will come out of Rezko's trial?  What will the 527's uncover about Obama's admittedly (sometimes) seedy youthful endeavors?  How many more times will Michelle Obama put her foot in her mouth?

Sen. Obama has already "bamboozled" us about his Rezko ties and is now trying to "hoodwink" us by saying he wasn't aware of his pastor's frequent hate-filled rhetoric.  Uhhh, didn't he sit in the Reverend's pews every Sunday on & off for the past 20 years?  Was he in the bathroom every time the Reverend spewed something detestable about our great country?  Or did he doze off during those screeching sermons about the "U-S of KKK"?  How else would he not hear those sermons?  I'm telling you it would be a huge mistake for the Democratic party to fall for Sen. Obama's "okey-doke" and nominate him.  If the super delegates give him the nomination in Denver, we are talking McGovern/Mondale style defeat in the fall here.....

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Dude, Did I NOT Vote?!!!

Here's a little tidbit for you, just in case you missed it today.

Remember the 20-something in hot pants who did the "I've Got A Crush On Obama?"

You know the one...

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Fred Thompson: Old, Male White Knight

Last week, Bill O'Reilly laid the identity politics of the conservative base bare to a degree we rarely see from the public face of conservativism:
Bill O'Reilly: But do you understand what the New York Times wants, and the far-left want? They want to break down the white, Christian, male power structure, which you're a part, and so am I, and they want to bring in millions of foreign nationals to basically break down the structure that we have. In that regard, Pat Buchanan is right. So I say you've got to cap with a number.
This quote neatly supports a point I have argued extensively over the past two and a half years (see here, here and here). Conservatism is, at its core, a defense of powerful, status-quo or backward leaning institutions. The primary driving force of contemporary American conservatism is a defense of a type of white Christian identity that is an institution unto itself. Still, it is one thing for me to make that argument, and it is quite another thing for one of the most prominent conservative pundits in America to make the point plain.

With less than 40% of Americans age 40 and under self-identifying as both white and Christian, many of those who support this institutional identity perceive it to be under attack, or at least in imminent danger or losing its dominance. (Then again, supporters of the institutionally dominant identity have always viewed that identity, whatever it may be, as under attack. See modern era, backlash against, 1775-current, worldwide.) Looking at the most recent poll data from Pew on the 2008 Presidential election, this demographic shift also holds the potential for groundbreaking ideological shifts within American government. Here are the percentages of Americans, ages 18-49, who indicated there is a "good chance" they will vote for any of the current and potentially leading Presidential candidates, whether Democratic or Republican:

Clinton: 24%
Obama: 22%
Gore: 19%
Giuliani: 15%
Edwards: 11%
McCain: 9%
Thompson: 7%
Gingrich: 7%
Romney: 6%

These are not just teenagers and young kids fresh out of college. These are the standings among all Americans under the age of fifty. Combined, the four Democrats hold a 28% lead over the five Republicans (76%-44%). Further, the five Republicans combined could not even manage 50%, despite the fact that poll respondents could choose more than one candidate. Further, the two Republicans who perform best among Americans under the age of 50 are Giuliani and McCain, who are often lambasted by conservatives for not being conservative enough. There isn't a conservative champion in the double digits in this poll, and neither of the two leaders are white men. In another twenty-five years, the people who were included in this crosstab will make up virtually the entire American electorate.

Consider Fred Thompson entry into the race as the supposed "conservative savior" in the context of contemporary conservative identity politics and the voting predilections of Americans born after 1964. Now, consider that the same Pew poll shows that 70% of his potential supporters are male, and 65% are over the age of 50. In this context, it seems quite reasonable to draw the conclusion that those people urging Fred Thompson into the campaign view him as the savior of what Bill O'Reilly calls "the white, Christian, male power structure." His strongest potential supporters are by far the oldest and most male of any other currently major candidate, even when compared to other Republican candidates. Fred Thompson is the old, male white knight for conservatives in 2008. Among major candidates, he is the ultimate identity politics throwback in this campaign. I'm sure it helps that he is currently best known for portraying a district attorney, and that he recently served as an extended substitute host on Paul Harvey's radio program.

Fortunately, I think it also means he has virtually no chance to become president. If he can't even excite Republican women, then we could be talking about a candidacy that serves as a nice coda on the 44-year electoral run of the conservative movement that started with Barry Goldwater in 1964. I doubt he has any chance to exceed 45% in a general election, no matter who we match up against him.


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